Covid-19 discussion, continued...

posted by jmog

Should be, but not always true. 

Not always but usually is. Therefore, if older science says "no" and newer science says "yes", yes is more likely to be correct.

posted by jmog

You do realize both are viruses, both are similar viruses, and both are transmitted the same way right?

It’s not like I posted a study on the transmission of the flu virus and said masks might not work for bacterial transmission/infection.

Flu and COVID are, for the most part, transmitted the same way. So the study was relevant.

They are different viruses. If they were the same virus the top medical people in the world would not have struggled with it so much over the past year.

Your logic is like saying an apple is a fruit, and an orange is a fruit, so an apple is similar to an orange.

posted by Al Bundy

They are different viruses. If they were the same virus the top medical people in the world would not have struggled with it so much over the past year.

Your logic is like saying an apple is a fruit, and an orange is a fruit, so an apple is similar to an orange.

They are the same size and are transmitted in the same way. So normal logic tells us that masks either work for both the flu and covid or neither or somewhere in between.

Not that hard to figure out.

posted by queencitybuckeye

Not always but usually is. Therefore, if older science says "no" and newer science says "yes", yes is more likely to be correct.

It was a statistical study not astrophysics, statistics haven’t changed in 2 years, I promise.

posted by jmog

It was a statistical study not astrophysics, statistics haven’t changed in 2 years, I promise.

The one I'm referring to was not, dipshit. It was a purely scientific study that indicated that the prior science was incorrect.

posted by Spock

Flu season isnt even here yet.

Do you even know why we have a flu season?  The temps and air quality arent there yet for flu.  Too warm and wet in most of the country.

Weird, why is this government agency reporting 20,000 in 2019 and only 39 for 2020 for the same period of time on the calendar?

https://www.kusi.com/dr-wooten-urges-san-diegans-to-get-flu-vaccine-during-covid-19-pandemic/  

posted by Verbal Kint

Weird, why is this government agency reporting 20,000 in 2019 and only 39 for 2020 for the same period of time on the calendar?

https://www.kusi.com/dr-wooten-urges-san-diegans-to-get-flu-vaccine-during-covid-19-pandemic/  

Thank you for making my point........its not here yet

posted by queencitybuckeye

The one I'm referring to was not, dipshit. It was a purely scientific study that indicated that the prior science was incorrect.

Am I missing your post where you linked a study to read?

Also, ad hominem usually means you are losing the logical/reason argument, just FYI.

posted by Spock

Thank you for making my point........its not here yet

"for the same period of time on the calendar"

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/12/11/claim-coronavirus-may-have-been-in-italy-in-november-of-2019/

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/health/2020/12/11/fda-authorizes-pfizer-biontech-covid-19-vaccine/3870912001/?build=native-web_i_p

Here we go. 

They really can't get the vaccines out fast enough.  Already a couple of days now with over 3000 deaths, and the case count doesn't seem to be leveling off.

Interesting is there doesn't really look like there was a Thanksgiving spike, just continuing along the rising trend.

I feel like it may just get worse and worse thru the New Year.  People are indoors, and they're not giving up these holidays with families and friends.

People definitely won't give up Christmas.

People need to supplement Vit D in their diet.  

posted by gut

They really can't get the vaccines out fast enough.  Already a couple of days now with over 3000 deaths, and the case count doesn't seem to be leveling off.

Interesting is there doesn't really look like there was a Thanksgiving spike, just continuing along the rising trend.

I feel like it may just get worse and worse thru the New Year.  People are indoors, and they're not giving up these holidays with families and friends.

Good thing the FDA took thanksgiving weekend off. They wasted valuable time. 

posted by gut

They really can't get the vaccines out fast enough.  Already a couple of days now with over 3000 deaths, and the case count doesn't seem to be leveling off.

Interesting is there doesn't really look like there was a Thanksgiving spike, just continuing along the rising trend.

I feel like it may just get worse and worse thru the New Year.  People are indoors, and they're not giving up these holidays with families and friends.

I read one article saying 3k plus daily deaths for the next 60-90 days should be expected. 

I also had a family friend call and let us k ow he had Covid and had recovered. He’s 82 with COPD and had a quadruple bypass about 2 years ago. I was surprised to learn he had recovered he’s someone I thought if they got it he would be a goner.

posted by sportchampps

I read one article saying 3k plus daily deaths for the next 60-90 days should be expected.

At current case levels, that makes sense and I wouldn't expect case counts to being to come down until at least mid-January.

But I think the mortality numbers will fall dramatically once they start vaccinating the most vulnerable, beginning next week.  My guess is 3000+ per day is <500 by middle of January.

Covid is not and never has been a "death sentence".  The absolutely most vulnerable early in the pandemic, before we knew how to treat it and without any therapeutics, probably had a mortality @10%.

330k dead is a huge number, but that's a little less than 1/10th of 1% of the population.  And the other thing is, maybe early on we lost a lot of people that might survive today, which made the "expected years lost" much higher.  A lot of people we're losing now could very well be people who would die from any number of causes within a few years.

The big question to be decided is how long before we return to normal?  Because the more austere and draconian leaders seem to be signaling 6-9 months or longer...while I'm thinking 100M vaccinated by the end of February is basically pandemic over in the US.  A lot of people could still get it at that point, but their mortality rate would be virtually 0.

posted by gut

At current case levels, that makes sense and I wouldn't expect case counts to being to come down until at least mid-January.

But I think the mortality numbers will fall dramatically once they start vaccinating the most vulnerable, beginning next week.  My guess is 3000+ per day is <500 by middle of January.

Covid is not and never has been a "death sentence".  The absolutely most vulnerable early in the pandemic, before we knew how to treat it and without any therapeutics, probably had a mortality @10%.

330k dead is a huge number, but that's a little less than 1/10th of 1% of the population.  And the other thing is, maybe early on we lost a lot of people that might survive today, which made the "expected years lost" much higher.  A lot of people we're losing now could very well be people who would die from any number of causes within a few years.

The big question to be decided is how long before we return to normal?  Because the more austere and draconian leaders seem to be signaling 6-9 months or longer...while I'm thinking 100M vaccinated by the end of February is basically pandemic over in the US.  A lot of people could still get it at that point, but their mortality rate would be virtually 0.

Part of the problem is that we don't know the long term effects. Just because someone doesn't die doesn't mean that they won't be suffering effects from it for the rest of their lives. 

Governors Give New Restrictions From House Party pic.twitter.com/cMUrgJKNLO

— Ryan Long (@ryanlongcomedy) December 14, 2020

400,000 doses in Ohio within the next two weeks or so. Good start, in my mind that covers a whole bunch of people that could potentially spread.