posted by gut
I meant that the mortality rate is like the flu only if there were no flu vaccine.
In the 50/60's (before the vaccine, I think), about twice the % of people died from the flu as have died from covid-19 so far. But the virus isn't done yet and could end-up being more deadly (depending on how many have been infected so far, and how many ultimately get infected).
Looking at the trends we are on the downslope. It will have right around 100,000 in the US. The question will be how many will they eventually estimate were infected?
I know in my family alone (wife, kids, parents, sister) that at least 5 of us DEFINITELY had the disease. The other 3 of us probably had it but were asymptomatic. Only 1 of us count against the current "number" as my wife was the only one to get officially tested because she works in hospice care of the elderly.
So just my anecdotal evidence there's a case where you can multiply the actual cases by 5 or more vs the confirmed cases.
Some studies I have seen coming out of California and New York that randomly tested people for the anti-bodies have shown something like you can multiply the confirmed cases by about 30-40x to get the actual anti-body test numbers.
Basically if they tested 10,000 people based on current US COVID-19 numbers they would expect about 50 to be confirmed cases and their random selection did get around that number. They would find that roughly 1750 people would test positive for the anti-bodies, meaning 30-40x the amount of people have had the virus and either been asymptomatic or never got tested.
This math puts it more like 17% of the country right now would have anti-bodies for COVID-19. That would put about 57 million people in the US already having had the disease. If those are true, then the death rate is roughly 0.14% based on 80,000 deaths...or really close to the seasonal flu.
I read about 3 studies with similar results, but here is one of them from LA/USC.