gut

You literally couldn't hear 0.01% of the population before social media.

posted by CenterBHSFan

One of the far left commentators I watch regularly also happens to be black. And that faction of the far left was/is deeply insulted that the Kamala campaign thought all it took was a bunch of black entertainers twerking to a white audience to win them over. They say it perpetuates the old notion of black people being the court jesters.

That's a wild take.  There are people who look for and invent racism everywhere they can.

Kamala's problem was simply that she's unlikable.  So they ran a version of Biden's "basement" campaign to give her a manufactured personality.  She also can't explain policy and probably didn't have an original thought in her head.  So really that was the only campaign she could have run.

posted by Trueblue23

20 million for concerts.  A million dollars for Oprah to show up for two hours. .

Billionaire Oprah charged them a million dollars to show up and support Kamala?!?

Rich celebrities and entertainers, who believe "the rich need to pay their fair share", need to get millions to stump for Kamala?  Wait, I guess that all makes sense...

The current SCOTUS make-up is pretty good with 3 liberals, 2 conservatives and 4 centrists.

Ideally you'd replace a liberal and one of the Repub centrists with a Democrats or left-leaning centrist/textualists.  But I'm not sure such a person exists.

The only real reason this is even an issue is because Dems have insisted on litigating rather than legislating to advance their agenda.  The rail about Trump, yet cry about SCOTUS rulings that correctly limit the executive branch.  But all of that is really just gaslighting to set the stage to stack the courts.  Fortunately, that won't be happening any time soon.

posted by BR1986FB

This is probably a stretch to happen as, I believe, all SC justices have previously been judges and Harris hasn't.

You definitely don't have to be a judge, and I think there have been a few non-lawyers appointed over its history.

There's likely not enough time to complete a confirmation process.  But there are a couple of very recent example of being confirmed ~3 weeks after submission.  I guess they could put up Kamala and push through a confirmation in a month.  So they only have about 6 weeks to figure that out, under the most ideal circumstances.

I wonder if Biden will step down or Kamala envoke the 25th so she can claim to be the first woman POTUS, even if only for a month or two:)

posted by jmog

If it was even remotely close you don’t think the Dems would have fought it?

They absolutely would have.  They had hundreds of lawyers geared up to "fight Trump's legal challenges".  Yeah, because he was so successful in that in 2020 because the Dems were unprepared.  And this was after many states upgraded their safeguards and processes.

It's also kind of disingenuous after the Dems spent a good part of the last 4 years trying to prevent Trump from running and throw him in jail.  And it ignores the whole Russia collusion hoax.  Heck, some even floated appeals to "faithless electors" in 2016 to ignore their state result and cast the electoral votes for Hillary.  I think Jamie Raskin has already announced the "resistance" movement is again underway.  So, yeah, the Dems really lose gracefully.

More than debatable that the Dems are a bigger threat to democracy than Trump.  The lawfare really backfired on them.

posted by CenterBHSFan

Another question I have is this. I keep seeing all these reports of reliably blue counties in blue states that had moved to the right in this election. They are still blue, but much less so. Is this a one off thing due to the circumstances of this election or is there a chance that it's going to be a trend?

I think it's a purple shift rather than a swing to Repubs.  I think more people are less beholden to voting straight ticket, every time, and are simply going to vote for the challenger when they are less than satisfied with the current Administration.  Trump probably wins in 2020 if not for Covid.

It seems a lot of formerly reliable blue voters are fed-up with Dem woke policies, including DEI and climate change.  They are no longer a given, and can't be herded into voting blue with the usual fearmongering.  Many of them may have cast protest votes FOR Trump this election, but I think in the future they stay home unless a party specifically gives them a reason to turn out.

Dems need high percentages among Latinos and Blacks.  I think the inroads Trump made was more about disgust with the Dems than a strong appeal from Trump.  But if those voters no longer automatically GIVE their vote to Dems then they have a real structural problem in the electorate going forward without changing their approach.

If Trump tones down the divisive rhetoric and governs responsibly (and, no, I don't think he's capable of either) then he will MASSIVELY damage the Dems and their media for years by proving the "Hitler destroying Democracy" was total bullshit.

And while Trump's plan to go after corruption and the deep state sounds good to many, it's also rife for the type of abuse the left claims to fear (though it would be hard to top their lawfare pursuits).  I don't worry that Trump will be fascist/dictator, but I do seriously doubt his ability to execute effectively on this initiative.

At the end of the day, I don't expect much different from his first term where it's mostly Trump and the Dems and their media throwing feces at each other like monkeys.

So I watch a little bit of Kimmel and Colber for the first time in forever, just to see the tears.

They did not disappoint.  Either they actually started believing all their own bullshit, or it was performance art.  Likely the latter.

And I guess we can already dispense with the myth that "Trump learned and will surround himself with yes-man the second time".  Ummm, Musk, Gabbard, RFK Jr and others...  You may not agree with these people, but they are definitely not pushovers and definitely not MAGA.

posted by CenterBHSFan

So the crazies are getting more brash. A professor wants to line up and shoot men who won't vote for Kamala lolI'm all for Trump winning just to watch these people meltdown.

I'm all for Trump winning just to see these idiots completely meltdown. But then I'll have to listen to people whining about Trump's tweets for 4 more years.

Really don't want another 4 years of Trump saying stupid shit, and the media making up even more stupid shit he didn't do.  Would be really nice just to move on from Trump.  But then that means Kamala and the Dems get rewarded for their underhanded shit.  It's a lose-lose.

posted by Devils Advocate

I am going Georgia. They just passed a law requiring an automatic HAND recount to verify ”accuracy”

Which is funny because there's not really a "ballot" to count from a voting machine

All signs point to Trump winning, but I just have a feeling the blue wall is going to hold.  Democrats are just better at turning out the vote.  Anyone else, those voters might just vote Republican or stay home.  But at the end of the day, no matter their beef with Kamala and the Dems they won't accept another Trump term.

posted by CenterBHSFan

1.) I think this is particularly true. There is a tug of war between the establishment and populist Republicans. It will be interesting to see who wins that.

Dems seem to be a little better at closing ranks or cajoling dissent.  But if they had a narrow majority in the House like the Repubs had I think they would also struggle with their far left radicals holding them hostage.  

But also a bit of a red herring because nothing purely partisan in the House is getting past the filibuster in the Senate.  Except both parties have done big things via budget reconciliation, which is bullshit.

Always interesting to look at where they are closing.  Trump has been in NV, PA and MI recently.  He probably needs at least 2 of the 3.

Why Trump has been in NY and Kamala in TX makes no sense to me.  Maybe it has more to do with down ballot races there.  But their internal polling is usually far more accurate and precise than what we see

Interesting result.  I think there are only 5 states in play: NV, MI, PA, NC and GA.  I think NV is actually leaning Trump, which would make it 270-268.

posted by like_that

It’s not guaranteed they take the house if Trump wins, and even if they do it would be a small majority.

Maybe in Ptown's head the Republicans have already eliminated the filibuster, but it's mainly Dems making that threat.

Even if Repubs sweep, nothing remotely radical get close to 60 votes in the Senate.  And Trump had numerous actions struck down by the courts in his first term.

And despite the gaslighting from the left, the SCOTUS is not in Trump's pocket.  Kavanaugh, Gorsuch and Barrett have all broken with Thomas and Alito on various issues.  Chief Justice Roberts has routinely ruled with the liberal justices on various social issues, with abortion being the rare exception.  But, actually, for the most part their rulings have been to CONSTRAIN the executive branch and return some power to the states while ending/reversing judicial fiat.  Liberals just uber-mad because they had been relying on the courts to advance their agenda where they don't have the votes in Congress.

The SCOTUS is currently the most balanced it has been in my life, and a more accurate description is a 3-2 liberal/conservative split with 4 moderate/swing votes.  The issue is, with the far left, anyone to the right of them is automatically MAGA.  There's no spectrum or middle ground.  I guess when they view themselves as moderate then anyone to the right can only be MAGA.

posted by Ironman92

WTF? Lol

Just watch first 10 seconds

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/SWvwnfh5yXPL4nhp/?mibextid=YlDasU

I can't tell how much zoom he's using, but near the end he seems to get stupid close - close enough the bear grunts at him.

But, you know, we let these people vote for POTUS

Just ok.  Skill 73, but 1/8 on my 4th guess

Wordle 1,226 4/6*

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SNL is roasting Kamala.  There's no bigger indicator of where this election is going.

posted by kizer permanente

This is how I see it ending up