On Jan 20, 2025:
posted by Ironman92Went to bed…I missed out.
Throw me another
I have a hunch Alcaraz smokes Djoker. Probably play the U39.5 games and Alcaraz -3.5 games.
Paul v Zverev is tricky. Paul playing very well, but Zverev is just a tick behind Sinner and Alcaraz in terms of best in the world the last year plus. My gut is saying Zverev in 4, with only one of those four being a close set. Just a matter of if the other three are 6-1/6-2, or 6-4/6-3 types. Prediction is: Zverev in 4, 6-2, 3-6, 7-5, 6-4 (O37.5 hits)
Shelton at least hit. Nailed that one. 3 tiebreakers and then Monfils had to retire in the 4th, but it should’ve paid out regardless since minimum games at that point would’ve been 45 and I think I saw it was 44.5 at close.
Void at very worst.
That’s huge!
Didn’t know Tien was injured. That was probably wasted money.
On Jan 19, 2025:
I also don’t know the Shelton/Monfils O/U, but I would hit the O. That one is screaming 5-set classic.
I’m late, but still some time.
O Tien/Musetti and I also think Tien ML is good value — but noting that is a long shot for him at this stage of a tournament and his age. But the matchup is as favorable as could be
My Aussie Open bets:
Void
Winner
Winner (winner)
Hope you placed them!
On Jan 18, 2025:
In order:
1. Draper/Alcaraz O31.5 games
2. Paul -5.5 game spread vs Davidovich Fokina
3. Zverev -5.5 vs Humbert (also the U36.5 games)
posted by Ironman92Ok…give me another one
Haven’t looked. Will post shortly.
posted by Laley23My Australian Open picks for tonight — “Americas Night”:
- Michelson to win outright (also take his +2.5 games -112) vs Khachanov: +142
- Fritz/Monfils O35.5 games: -112 (likely also placing some on the max pre match Alt O38.5 at +118
- Tien over Moutet: -110
- Tien/Moutet U37.5 games
- Shelton/Musetti O40.5: -112 (also on Alt O43.5 at +144
- Shelton to win, both players to win a set: +158
- Winner (winner)
- Winner (winner)
- Winner
- Winner
- Winner (loser)
- Winnef
On Jan 17, 2025:
posted by Ironman92Tell me 1, $3 bet on the Aussie Open for me to take
Honestly, Michelson over KK was my most confident bet tonight.
Burning you want #2, take the Shelton/Musetti Over total games. That one screams tiebreaks and 7-5 sets. Not a lot of breaks.
Now, if either wins in straight sets, 40.5 is impossible (which I think is current O/U). But you bet in a match with few breaks, each will win a set out of 3, and it at least goes 4 sets.
Michelson. Check!
posted by Ironman92I’m not up to snuff on tennis anymore at all
This is why you just copy mine! 7/8 on the Aussie Open so far.
Plus, I need an excuse when it goes to shit, and you are the perfect person to blame!
My Australian Open picks for tonight — “Americas Night”:
- Michelson to win outright (also take his +2.5 games -112) vs Khachanov: +142
- Fritz/Monfils O35.5 games: -112 (likely also placing some on the max pre match Alt O38.5 at +118
- Tien over Moutet: -110
- Tien/Moutet U37.5 games
- Shelton/Musetti O40.5: -112 (also on Alt O43.5 at +144
- Shelton to win, both players to win a set: +158
posted by Laley23Alt over on Draper/Vukic 33.5
Djokovic ML (and then hope this is the one that loses the parlay)
Mensik ML
Parlayed all to +179 as well.
Process was right. Djoker won despite me trying to jinx. Draper and Vukic was maybe the easiest Over ever. Wish I had just taken the Alt O38 which was +210. But they went 5 sets and 56 games LOL. And then I say Mensik blew the 2 sets to 0 lead and lost in 5... possibly due to cramping late in the 4th set and 5th. Ugh.
Very profitable still, but that lost parlay is a killer.
Alt over on Draper/Vukic 33.5
Djokovic ML (and then hope this is the one that loses the parlay)
Mensik ML
Parlayed all to +179 as well.
posted by Laley23Alcaraz / Borges — O29.5 games.
This hits as Borges has secured his 11th game late in the 3rd set. Minimum of 30 games must be played now for Alcaraz to finish him off.
You all should start tailing these (then I’ll lose them all).
On Jan 16, 2025:
Alcaraz / Borges — O29.5 games.
Mitchell has horrible numbers in his career vs OKC, not sure why. I think he gets 20 tonight though cause he may enforce his will
Easy to say after that 1Q, but stunned you thought Thunder would lose tonight. This is prime for OKC to come out with insane intensity and home crowd.