Covid-19 discussion, continued...

gut Senior Member
18,369 posts 87 reps Joined Nov 2009
Tue, May 26, 2020 10:27 PM
posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie

That's not an answer. Why does Sweden have lower infection rates than most European countries after no lockdown?  It doesn't reconcile to what you're saying - that lockdowns lowered infection and/or death rates.

Japan didn't do anything, either, and has cases/deaths on par with the mighty South Korea.

jmog Senior Member
7,737 posts 32 reps Joined Nov 2009
Wed, May 27, 2020 1:04 AM
posted by queencitybuckeye

Incorrect, as you don't know and cannot know how many people likely avoided getting it BECAUSE they stayed home. It's likely a large number, particularly in the high risk groups. That there are more asymptomatic people with the virus means it was actually more important for that group to heed the stay at home policy.

 

 

QCB going down with SNL with regards to being completely wrong on this topic. 

like_that 1st Team All-PWN
29,228 posts 303 reps Joined Apr 2010
Wed, May 27, 2020 5:23 AM
posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie

It's not a "middle finger". It's people realizing that this lockdown business was completely arbitrary and unwarranted - that the danger doesn't even come close to justifying the restrictions. 

God damn, what is going on lately?  I have found myself agreeing with a lot of your posts in this thread (including the posts following this post).  I am just going to throw in a good ol "go fuck yourself" to balance the universe. 

posted by jmog

God I hate this, but CC is right again.

 

If large amounts of people already had it, as the testing/studies are starting to show, then people got it ANYWAY, even with large scale lockdowns.

 

This means the lockdowns didn't work, people still got the virus, and the virus wasn't as deadly for normal/healthy people as they thought.

 

This, plus the whole point was to lessen the burden on our hospitals.  In most cities/towns, this was accomplished or they never even came close to being overburdened.  Any continuance of "lockdowns" at this point do not make any sense at the expense of everyone's livelihood.  The pandemic blindsided the whole world (thanks to China), but I would hope by now the entire world has bought enough time to have a plan just in case a second wave hits us badly.  There should be plenty of beds available.  At least more than the first wave.  

posted by BRF

I always hated that saying. 
 

FWIW, I am living off a pretty nice pension. 

 

I heard that saying doesn't apply to Cleveland fans.  You're good to go BRF.  

posted by gut

Japan didn't do anything, either, and has cases/deaths on par with the mighty South Korea.

My friend lives in Japan, and they have done a few things, but they didn't go into any ridiculous lockdowns or shut down the entire economy.  

To you point though, it's almost like every country/state/city/town has its own unique characteristics that leads to different variables on how to handle this virus.  Crazy concept.  

 

like_that 1st Team All-PWN
29,228 posts 303 reps Joined Apr 2010
Wed, May 27, 2020 5:25 AM

BTW, this past week was the first week Italy opened up restaurants (for sit down) and bars.   We went to a few and the restaurants were taking everyone's temperature,  and Masks are allowed to be off in the restaurants.  Tables and seating were also spaced out to have 1M between each other. The bars were packed and a lot of younger people were out on the streets drinking.  I am sure they will crack down on that a bit. 

ernest_t_bass 12th Son of the Lama
26,698 posts 195 reps Joined Nov 2009
Wed, May 27, 2020 6:42 AM
posted by like_that

BTW, this past week was the first week Italy opened up restaurants (for sit down) and bars.   We went to a few and the restaurants were taking everyone's temperature,  and Masks are allowed to be off in the restaurants.  Tables and seating were also spaced out to have 1M between each other. The bars were packed and a lot of younger people were out on the streets drinking.  I am sure they will crack down on that a bit. 

Considering Italy was one of the epicenters, it will be interesting to observe them, and see if there is a 2nd wave.  If there is not, then that will be a great sign to the rest of the world in how to proceed. 

Dr Winston O'Boogie Senior Member
3,345 posts 20 reps Joined Oct 2010
Wed, May 27, 2020 11:24 AM
posted by like_that

God damn, what is going on lately?  I have found myself agreeing with a lot of your posts in this thread (including the posts following this post).  I am just going to throw in a good ol "go fuck yourself" to balance the universe. 

These are crazy days we live in I guess.  Glad Italy is coming back to life.  

O-Trap Chief Shenanigans Officer
18,909 posts 140 reps Joined Nov 2009
Wed, May 27, 2020 11:53 AM
posted by gut

Japan didn't do anything, either, and has cases/deaths on par with the mighty South Korea.

I have a few friends who live in Japan, and from the sound of it, they didn't need to, because there was a really high rate of people sequestering themselves voluntarily.  The impression I got from talking to them about it was that there's more of a cultural sense of duty to one another than there is in the States, so they mostly voluntarily did what we were forced to do anyway.

Just for whatever that's worth.

 

 

gut Senior Member
18,369 posts 87 reps Joined Nov 2009
Wed, May 27, 2020 12:01 PM
posted by like_that

....plus the whole point was to lessen the burden on our hospitals.  In most cities/towns, this was accomplished or they never even came close to being overburdened.

It's possible it peaked before NYC even locked down, since if you look at data the lockdowns had questionable effectiveness.  Obviously it wouldn't have peaked in other states, but they never came close to their hospitals being overburdened.

The goal posts have moved from simply keeping the hospital burden manageable to something else, despite data continually coming in showing fears driving initial reactions were greatly overblown (not disagreeing with the actions taken given available data at the time).  Not to diminish the deaths, but we're getting fairly close to pre-vaccine flu levels, which we lived with for decades without 1/100th the hysteria.

Lockdowns, IMO, aren't going to work that great when 80-90% of carriers are asymptomatic, and the rest spread it for up to a week or more before they have symptoms.

Spock Senior Member
5,271 posts 9 reps Joined Jul 2013
Wed, May 27, 2020 12:01 PM

OHSAA backtracked on the opening of sports today in regards to using sport implements.....they will allow 2 people to pass a ball together

gut Senior Member
18,369 posts 87 reps Joined Nov 2009
Wed, May 27, 2020 12:17 PM
posted by O-Trap

I have a few friends who live in Japan, and from the sound of it, they didn't need to, because there was a really high rate of people sequestering themselves voluntarily.  The impression I got from talking to them about it was that there's more of a cultural sense of duty to one another than there is in the States, so they mostly voluntarily did what we were forced to do anyway.

Cultural norms may have played a role.  I think wearing masks inside in confined spaces is probably more effective than anything else (aside from washing hands).  And the greatest evidence for that is NYC healthcare workers - the complete opposite of quarantining - had below average infection rates.  Strong argument for PPE dominating shelter in place.

But if you look throughout that region, South Korea was held up as the gold standard but that entire region - including Japan, including New Zealand and Australia - had similar rates.  Testing and contact tracing seems obvious, but like I said it might not be that effective with a disease like this.  The range of policy responses runs the gamut with similar outcomes, so was it just dumb luck or other factors dominated?

The more likely factor is the Wuhan virus was not nearly as contagious as the European strain that's now dominant throughout the world.  The Wuhan strain that came to Seattle and San Fran was, I'd guess, pretty well contained.  But it was NYC that seeded the European strain throughout the US.  I think those Asian countries have escaped much of this because they clamped down on international travel and thus never imported the European strain.

Dr Winston O'Boogie Senior Member
3,345 posts 20 reps Joined Oct 2010
Wed, May 27, 2020 12:19 PM

Regardless of where we each stand on the specifics, this pandemic has brought a lot of anxiety and stress to everyone.  I've not done this before, but I'm putting a quote on here from CS Lewis from his essay On Living in the Atomic Age.  It is relevant to our current environment and surely something I can benefit from.  Just substitute "Coronavirus" for "atomic bomb".

“In one way we think a great deal too much of the atomic bomb. “How are we to live in an atomic age?” I am tempted to reply: “Why, as you would have lived in the sixteenth century when the plague visited London almost every year, or as you would have lived in a Viking age when raiders from Scandinavia might land and cut your throat any night; or indeed, as you are already living in an age of cancer, an age of syphilis, an age of paralysis, an age of air raids, an age of railway accidents, an age of motor accidents.”

In other words, do not let us begin by exaggerating the novelty of our situation. Believe me, dear sir or madam, you and all whom you love were already sentenced to death before the atomic bomb was invented: and quite a high percentage of us were going to die in unpleasant ways. We had, indeed, one very great advantage over our ancestors—anesthetics; but we have that still. It is perfectly ridiculous to go about whimpering and drawing long faces because the scientists have added one more chance of painful and premature death to a world which already bristled with such chances and in which death itself was not a chance at all, but a certainty.

This is the first point to be made: and the first action to be taken is to pull ourselves together. If we are all going to be destroyed by an atomic bomb, let that bomb when it comes find us doing sensible and human things—praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children, playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a pint and a game of darts—not huddled together like frightened sheep and thinking about bombs. They may break our bodies (a microbe can do that) but they need not dominate our minds."

 

QuakerOats Senior Member
11,701 posts 53 reps Joined Nov 2009
Wed, May 27, 2020 2:26 PM

Indeed

birddog23 Senior Member
1,173 posts 6 reps Joined Aug 2010
Thu, May 28, 2020 8:18 AM
posted by Spock

OHSAA backtracked on the opening of sports today in regards to using sport implements.....they will allow 2 people to pass a ball together

Link?

ernest_t_bass 12th Son of the Lama
26,698 posts 195 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, May 28, 2020 9:09 AM
posted by gut

The more likely factor is the Wuhan virus was not nearly as contagious as the European strain that's now dominant throughout the world.  The Wuhan strain that came to Seattle and San Fran was, I'd guess, pretty well contained.  But it was NYC that seeded the European strain throughout the US.  I think those Asian countries have escaped much of this because they clamped down on international travel and thus never imported the European strain.

Is it documented that the strains are different?  If so, I've been completely in the dark on that one.

Automatik Senior Member
15,737 posts 92 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, May 28, 2020 9:22 AM

Yes, lots of talk out there about the Euro strain being more contagious.

justincredible Honorable Admin
37,969 posts 179 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, May 28, 2020 9:40 AM
posted by ernest_t_bass

Is it documented that the strains are different?  If so, I've been completely in the dark on that one.

Same, I don't think I realized that.

gut Senior Member
18,369 posts 87 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, May 28, 2020 9:45 AM
posted by ernest_t_bass

Is it documented that the strains are different?  If so, I've been completely in the dark on that one.

I think there have been at least a dozen different strains identified, maybe up to 30 or more.  It's normal for variations like that to srping up, but supposedly none are genetically different enough that a vaccine wouldn't work on all of them.

Spock Senior Member
5,271 posts 9 reps Joined Jul 2013
Thu, May 28, 2020 10:03 AM

There has been no evidence of different strains or a change in the strain like the flu does.

Spock Senior Member
5,271 posts 9 reps Joined Jul 2013
Thu, May 28, 2020 10:07 AM

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/05/27/cdc-suggests-coronavirus-fatality-rate-higher-than-flus-but-at-least-8x-lower-than-initial-estimates/

 

So take out the 50% of deaths that happened in nursing homes.....fatality rates for general public = .013

Basically shut down the country for the Flu.  Should never happen again.  

Automatik Senior Member
15,737 posts 92 reps Joined Nov 2009
Thu, May 28, 2020 11:18 AM
posted by Spock

There has been no evidence of different strains or a change in the strain like the flu does.

 

Got a link from Breibart or the like confirming this? 

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