Covid-19 discussion, continued...

posted by justincredible

Money printer go brrrrr again?

Money printer go brrrrr again.

Friend of mine sent this to me yesterday. I've never been a huge Bill Maher fan, but the last two videos I've watch have been pretty decent.

posted by OSH

Friend of mine sent this to me yesterday. I've never been a huge Bill Maher fan, but the last two videos I've watch have been pretty decent.

Doesn't have the live audience to pander to.

On “Face The Nation,” the U.S. Chamber's Suzanne Clark said yesterday that the Chamber's poll showed "something like 50% of small businesses said they were eight weeks away from closing forever."

posted by QuakerOats

On “Face The Nation,” the U.S. Chamber's Suzanne Clark said yesterday that the Chamber's poll showed "something like 50% of small businesses said they were eight weeks away from closing forever."

Creditors are going to work with their customers, because they don't really have another choice.  What am I going to do, kick you out?  I don't have anyone else to rent that space, and might not for months.  Take your equipment?  Don't have anyone to sell it to and nowhere to put it.

The really savvy people are going to use this to negotiate/restructure better deals for themselves, even potentially declaring bankruptcy.

posted by gut

Doesn't have the live audience to pander to.

That is true

posted by gut

Doesn't have the live audience to pander to.

The video won't come up for me, but if it is his interview with Crenshaw, he got completely dismantled.   I always wondered how Maher would fare in a debate if he wasn't playing a "home game."   With Crenshaw, he was struggling to play on a neutral site.

My hospital is really slow. COVID floor is empty. Essential workers are increasingly losing hours. Need to find the right way to get things to open back up.

posted by friendfromlowry

My hospital is really slow. COVID floor is empty. Essential workers are increasingly losing hours. Need to find the right way to get things to open back up.

Hey that is great.  

posted by like_that

The video won't come up for me, but if it is his interview with Crenshaw, he got completely dismantled.   I always wondered how Maher would fare in a debate if he wasn't playing a "home game."   With Crenshaw, he was struggling to play on a neutral site.

Not an interview. It's Maher talking about the media putting out "panic porn." 

posted by OSH

Not an interview. It's Maher talking about the media putting out "panic porn." 

Ahh, I have seen that video too.  It was good. 

I wish we could start a poll for this, but serious question to everyone contributing to this thread.  At what point do you think people should be allowed to leave their homes?  

LA County released results of their antibody study. Interesting report. If you are interested here.

• 4.1% of the county's population has antibodies to the coronavirus
• Figure is 55x higher than what was suggested
• Study suggests that the current estimated death rate of 4% is probably more likely between .15% and .09% -- accounting for all infections that have not been counted

Looking at it by demographics:

• 7% of African Americans had antibodies
• 6% of whites had antibodies
• 4.2% of Asians
• 2.5% of Latinos
• 2.4% of 18-34 year olds had antibodies
• 5.6% of 35-54 year olds
• 4.3% of 55+

posted by like_that

I wish we could start a poll for this, but serious question to everyone contributing to this thread.  At what point do you think people should be allowed to leave their homes?  

Georgia is opening up a lot of things immediately (with restrictions) which seems a bit quick. SC has opened some retail but not restaurants, with limitations of the amount of people per store. Then they will slowly open up other kinds of businesses throughout May (similar to Ohio). Supposedly this is in line with 14 days of declining numbers. TBH I don't know a good date, but I know it can't continue like this. There will be suggestions put into place on how to keep things clean and the amount of people, but I don't think any of it is really enforceable. I think things that are the least likely to infect people should be opened sooner (state parks, boat landings, beaches, large outdoor areas where social distancing is the point) while indoor areas more likely to spread disease should come later, with much more emphasis on cleanliness and spacing between people. I don't think I'll be going to a concert or dive bar any time soon. 

posted by iclfan2

Georgia is opening up a lot of things immediately (with restrictions) which seems a bit quick. SC has opened some retail but not restaurants, with limitations of the amount of people per store. Then they will slowly open up other kinds of businesses throughout May (similar to Ohio). Supposedly this is in line with 14 days of declining numbers. TBH I don't know a good date, but I know it can't continue like this. There will be suggestions put into place on how to keep things clean and the amount of people, but I don't think any of it is really enforceable. I think things that are the least likely to infect people should be opened sooner (state parks, boat landings, beaches, large outdoor areas where social distancing is the point) while indoor areas more likely to spread disease should come later, with much more emphasis on cleanliness and spacing between people. I don't think I'll be going to a concert or dive bar any time soon. 

I'd agree with that. Which sucks because I have a good friend in a dive bar band. Maybe with it (really slowly) getting nicer out, during the summer they'll just do outdoor shows where I have room to keep away from people.

posted by like_that

I wish we could start a poll for this, but serious question to everyone contributing to this thread.  At what point do you think people should be allowed to leave their homes?  

I'm all for the guidelines released last week.

posted by like_that

I wish we could start a poll for this, but serious question to everyone contributing to this thread.  At what point do you think people should be allowed to leave their homes?  

I mean ... people should be allowed to leave their homes now.  I've left my home twice today.

posted by OSH

LA County released results of their antibody study. Interesting report. If you are interested here.

• 4.1% of the county's population has antibodies to the coronavirus
• Figure is 55x higher than what was suggested
• Study suggests that the current estimated death rate of 4% is probably more likely between .15% and .09% -- accounting for all infections that have not been counted

Looking at it by demographics:

• 7% of African Americans had antibodies
• 6% of whites had antibodies
• 4.2% of Asians
• 2.5% of Latinos
• 2.4% of 18-34 year olds had antibodies
• 5.6% of 35-54 year olds
• 4.3% of 55+

 

Similar to a county in northern California where they said it could 85x.

I'm not sure why people mention 55X or 80X the number of cases....the % is much more meaningful, especially because a lot of those early infections had no test available.

And there's a range of infection.  I think suburbs and much of the country might have something like 2%, while the denser cities could be 5% (maybe 10% in NY).  Country as a whole might be 10M cases.

In some respects that would be a great number.  Means it's much less deadly (but still maybe 5X as deadly as a bad flu).  The more concerning problem is 10M cases in maybe about 2.5 months, and that nearly overwhelmed the hospitals.  So it's still far too contagious for a healthcare system to absorb without some mediation measures.

Most of the country should be fine, but NYC and several other major metros are going to be really tough to manage.  I think they'll need to work from home as much as possible, and otherwise stagger schedules (they already do, to some extent) to allow for proper social distancing on public transportation.  I think masks really help reduce spread, but I'm not convinced how much contact tracing would really help because by the time someone is diagnosed they've already exposed dozens or hundreds of people.