posted by **iclfan2**
3% seems awfully high too. HHS came out the other day and said it was most likely between .1 and 1%, due to the theory that there are way more cases than we know about, so the denominator is higher than they thought.

$2.4T hit to global GDP seems awfully low with that kind of outbreak.

Seems like 3% might be @ the mortality rate for known cases, people who are diagnosed and/or seeking treatment. Which with unknown infection 3X that or more puts mortality under 1%. I'd be interested to know how many people are freaking out about CV19 but don't bother to get a flu shot.

But I have no idea if 15M is a realistic number of infected or not. I'd guess once you get past a certain threshold, you've lost containment and basically everyone ends up being exposed at some point.