Covid-19 discussion, continued...

posted by gut

With no vaccine and no prior immunity.  It's brutal on the most vulnerable, but that's because they don't even have related antibodies to help fight it.  I just hope this doesn't become seasonal, especially because I don't think this will be the last coronavirus pandemic - we dodged a real bullet that this wasn't anywhere near as deadly as SARS or MERS.

But that first 2 sentences is true for any flu/cold like virus. The seasonal flu is absolutely brutal on infants, the elderly, and those that have other underlining health problems. Same demographics that COVID-19 has been brutal on. 

Everything I have read says this will be back this winter just like the swine flu (H1N1) was. It was a 2 year "deal" before we had somewhat of a "vacine" to add to the seasonal flu vaccine for H1N1 and/or we had herd immunity.

COVID-19 will be back this winter, but that will really be the last winter it is back.

posted by Dr Winston O'Boogie

Anyone planning a vacation in the near future?  If so, what criteria have you used to make the decision?

I still plan on going to the Carribbean in the late summer/early fall now (was originally going to be July).

Waiting it out just a little to see when I should book it to make sure it happens (travel is allowed).

posted by jmog

But that first 2 sentences is true for any flu/cold like virus. The seasonal flu is absolutely brutal on infants, the elderly, and those that have other underlining health problems. Same demographics that COVID-19 has been brutal on.

I meant that the mortality rate is like the flu only if there were no flu vaccine.

In the 50/60's (before the vaccine, I think), about twice the % of people died from the flu as have died from covid-19 so far.  But the virus isn't done yet and could end-up being more deadly (depending on how many have been infected so far, and how many ultimately get infected).

posted by gut

I meant that the mortality rate is like the flu only if there were no flu vaccine.

In the 50/60's (before the vaccine, I think), about twice the % of people died from the flu as have died from covid-19 so far.  But the virus isn't done yet and could end-up being more deadly (depending on how many have been infected so far, and how many ultimately get infected).

Looking at the trends we are on the downslope. It will have right around 100,000 in the US. The question will be how many will they eventually estimate were infected?

I know in my family alone (wife, kids, parents, sister) that at least 5 of us DEFINITELY had the disease. The other 3 of us probably had it but were asymptomatic. Only 1 of us count against the current "number" as my wife was the only one to get officially tested because she works in hospice care of the elderly.

So just my anecdotal evidence there's a case where you can multiply the actual cases by 5 or more vs the confirmed cases.

Some studies I have seen coming out of California and New York that randomly tested people for the anti-bodies have shown something like you can multiply the confirmed cases by about 30-40x to get the actual anti-body test numbers.

Basically if they tested 10,000 people based on current US COVID-19 numbers they would expect about 50 to be confirmed cases and their random selection did get around that number. They would find that roughly 1750 people would test positive for the anti-bodies, meaning 30-40x the amount of people have had the virus and either been asymptomatic or never got tested.

This math puts it more like 17% of the country right now would have anti-bodies for COVID-19. That would put about 57 million people in the US already having had the disease. If those are true, then the death rate is roughly 0.14% based on 80,000 deaths...or really close to the seasonal flu.

I read about 3 studies with similar results, but here is one of them from LA/USC.

https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody-testing-results-covid-19-infections-los-angeles-county/

posted by jmog

This math puts it more like 17% of the country right now would have anti-bodies for COVID-19. That would put about 57 million people in the US already having had the disease. If those are true, then the death rate is roughly 0.14% based on 80,000 deaths...or really close to the seasonal flu.

I think that is probably true in the denser urban areas like NYC, Chicago, LA etc.  In the suburbs and rural areas, antibody testing is @3%.  Might be more like 30M have had this.  So if 200M people actually get this (which is what makes it different from the 60M that are estimated to get flu annually), that would project to about 500k deaths.

But another way to look at it is in NYC, for example, where they had 20-25% with antibodies is probably most people were exposed.  But only 25% got it.  So herd immunity might not be 70% but, at least for this virus, maybe 20-30%.  Sweden didn't lock down, and their numbers have been fairly inline with other EU countries and now trending down.

I'm hoping the worst is behind us.  Otherwise 12 months of 1000 people dying a day won't be fun.

Wtf is the deal with antibodies and has it ever been determined if you have them you can't be infected again? 

Had another friend just positive for the antibodies. Went to the huge gay fest in Miami where it spread. He was mildly ill 2 weeks after he returned.

posted by Automatik

Wtf is the deal with antibodies and has it ever been determined if you have them you can't be infected again?

No one knows for certain.  Normally it's probably like a few years of full or significant immunity, but apparently could also be as little as only a few months of modest protection.  And would probably depend on whether this becomes seasonal with new variants like the flu (it's not influenza, so hopefully not).  There were a few blurbs about some having antibodies, but having an insufficient amount to provide protection due to exposure to a low viral load (which IMO sounds like the usual caveat "in rare cases....").

There are over 4M cases worldwide.  There have been several hundred reports of re-infection, but that's such a small % that most experts have completely dismissed it as testing errors.  So I would assume there is immunity for some unknown period of time.

But good luck getting an antigen test any time soon.

Dewine opening shit back up 

Book your haircut appintment ASAP!

I'm jealous.

posted by Automatik

Book your haircut appintment ASAP!

 

I'm jealous.

They open up Monday here. My hair looks absolutely stupid (and our office opened Monday so everyone can see). But it’s gonna be paaaaacked I’m sure. Need to teach my wife how to do it. 

Last night I called my barbershop at 8:15 expecting a message with news about reopening. To my surprise, the owner answered the phone and was taking appointments (which they have never done before....walk ins only). I’m in for next Wednesday. Yay! 

11:55 last night lol 

posted by geeblock

11:55 last night lol 

There's a blast from the past.  I haven't been in that place for probably 25 years.  But damn have I been drunk in there.  

https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-cure-california-biopharmaceutical-coronavirus-antibody-breakthrough

Operation Warp Speed?

It's almost as if Trump has never watched sci-fy, because warp drives blow-up in basically every show ever.

Restaurant in Columbus...open patio 🤦🏻‍♂️

posted by Ironman92

Restaurant in Columbus...open patio 🤦🏻‍♂️

When you goto their website the first thing that pops up is the social distancing guidelines lol 

Why did DeWine backtrack on wearing masks?

I understand you can't eat or drink with a mask, but wearing one is a small inconvenience (except for exercise) to be able to go out and do stuff.  Just seems irresponsible to open back up and not require masks.

Before people say masks don't really help, Cuomo reported that healthcare workers in NY had below average rates of infection, and that's with them being tested far more than other groups.  That would indicate to me that masks provide some protection, but maybe only N95 (which DO suck to wear for extended periods of time).

posted by gut

Why did DeWine backtrack on wearing masks?

I understand you can't eat or drink with a mask, but wearing one is a small inconvenience (except for exercise) to be able to go out and do stuff.  Just seems irresponsible to open back up and not require masks.

Before people say masks don't really help, Cuomo reported that healthcare workers in NY had below average rates of infection, and that's with them being tested far more than other groups.  That would indicate to me that masks provide some protection, but maybe only N95 (which DO suck to wear for extended periods of time).

 

 

He flipped the next day after requiring them because so many people complained that they couldn’t wear one. There was a lot of excuses some more legit then others like autism.

over/under on new shutdowns/lockdowns by July 15th?