posted by kizer permanenteYeah. From the sounds of it they’re doing the “you’re on your own, strongest will survive” strategy. They obviously don’t want to strain their healthcare industry or economy.
Any way to add validity to this other than anecdote?
posted by SportsAndLadyIsn’t Sweden doing the herd immunity strategy? Basically just not shutting down anything and waiting for everyone to get it, recover, and become immune to it?
Risky strategy as there's no conclusive evidence of having it = future immunity.
posted by ernest_t_bassAny way to add validity to this other than anecdote?
I don’t know. I guess you could buy a plane ticket and travel there and find out?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
It’s about a week old, but that tells you what’s happening there. It’s not working.
posted by kizer permanenteI don’t know. I guess you could buy a plane ticket and travel there and find out?
Anyone fly recently during this mess?
Strongly considering going to my sisters in Denver to work remotely for a few weeks.
I'm going to wait a bit to book to see how state opening and flying during this time pans out.
posted by queencitybuckeyeRisky strategy as there's no conclusive evidence of having it = future immunity.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/roche-ceo-very-likely-coronavirus-patients-develop-immunity.html
posted by QuakerOats
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/roche-ceo-very-likely-coronavirus-patients-develop-immunity.html
Doesn't refute my point. At all.
posted by queencitybuckeyeDoesn't refute my point. At all.
Was just going to say that. There’s been no confirmation that once you get covid and “beat” it, that it can’t come back later on.
Aren’t coronaviruses known for not having long lasting antibodies?
posted by QuakerOats
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/04/roche-ceo-very-likely-coronavirus-patients-develop-immunity.html
Schwan’s take on immunity to Covid-19 came after South Korean scientists concluded it was impossible for the virus to reinfect humans.
There had been concern that people were appearing to fall ill with the coronavirus a second time in Japan, China and South Korea — but researchers from the South Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last week that this phenomenon had resulted from testing failures.
posted by QuakerOats
Schwan’s take on immunity to Covid-19 came after South Korean scientists concluded it was impossible for the virus to reinfect humans.
There had been concern that people were appearing to fall ill with the coronavirus a second time in Japan, China and South Korea — but researchers from the South Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last week that this phenomenon had resulted from testing failures.
A well known pediatrician in Wilmington Ohio (age 60) contracted the virus and was on vent for a few days and did NOT look like he was going to make it. Few days later he was taken off vent and talking and couple days later released.......a week later he could only take a few steps without being winded. Back to ER and admitted again and vent again for 2 days......still in hospital 2 weeks later
posted by QuakerOats
Schwan’s take on immunity to Covid-19 came after South Korean scientists concluded it was impossible for the virus to reinfect humans.
There had been concern that people were appearing to fall ill with the coronavirus a second time in Japan, China and South Korea — but researchers from the South Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last week that this phenomenon had resulted from testing failures.
I read the South Korean doctors report. It didn’t say it was impossible that the virus couldn’t return to the system down the road.
No one knows for certain yet.
I wonder in these cases where someone has seemed to get COVID a second time if it's really a case that they hadn't never gotten over their original infection.
posted by Dr Winston O'BoogieI wonder in these cases where someone has seemed to get COVID a second time if it's really a case that they hadn't never gotten over their original infection.
Or whether or not there are notable spreads of multiple mutations, not unlike getting two different strains of the flu.
And so now they're predicting a second wave and this won't be over until August? I don't see how this doesn't explode globally again in the winter, especially if travel restrictions are eased.
We had no idea just how bad this would be or how hard it would hit. But at this point I don't think it's a conspiracy theory to question the effectiveness of the lockdowns. It's still spreading, quite easily, and outside of NYC, I'm not sure lockdowns accomplished much. And for much of the country, it had a huge economic cost for questionable benefit.
I'm not saying the lockdowns were a bad call, at the time. Kind of looking like "herd immunity" isn't so much a strategy but rather a simple inevitability.
posted by O-TrapOr whether or not there are notable spreads of multiple mutations, not unlike getting two different strains of the flu.
So many questions as new data keeps coming in. Meat factory just had like 17% of its employees test positive. That's pretty scary for any company opening back up, except all 17% were asymptomatic.
And there was that OH prison data from last week.I know we don't know how long people are immune, if at all. But early estimates that @ 50% were asymptomatic appear to be way low. The denominator looks much larger than anyone expected. Maybe a "targeted" herd immunity strategy is the way to go. I guess we're going to find out because it seems like people have pretty much had enough of lockdowns.
Also, it sounds like maybe 1/3 of the deaths have been nursing homes. This is what the flu does, except we have a vaccine and some antibodies to various related flu strains. The more we prolong this, the longer those people have to deal with a much higher exposure risk.
posted by gutAnd so now they're predicting a second wave and this won't be over until August? I don't see how this doesn't explode globally again in the winter, especially if travel restrictions are eased.
We had no idea just how bad this would be or how hard it would hit. But at this point I don't think it's a conspiracy theory to question the effectiveness of the lockdowns. It's still spreading, quite easily, and outside of NYC, I'm not sure lockdowns accomplished much. And for much of the country, it had a huge economic cost for questionable benefit.
I'm not saying the lockdowns were a bad call, at the time. Kind of looking like "herd immunity" isn't so much a strategy but rather a simple inevitability.
I think the lockdowns were based upon the fact that there wasn't really any quality information available about a new virus. With limited data on its abilities, leaders were faced with a complete unknown and I think wanted to error on the side of caution. Wherever you are politically, I think most were doing their best to make the best decisions with the limited information they had.
Now that more time has passed, lockdowns may not prove to help much, or not at all. I'm not sure enough data exists to tell yet. Regardless, it does look like we're going to exist with this thing for a long time. The long-term effects of little travel, little face-to-face meetings, etc, may prove more economically catastrophic than then near term losses due to the lockdowns, who knows.
posted by Dr Winston O'BoogieNow that more time has passed, lockdowns may not prove to help much, or not at all.
I'm not saying it was the wrong decision, and there's a lot that needs to be learned because there's going to be a next time within a decade (and by that I don't mean Covid-19, but another novel virus that could prove much more deadly).
The problem with the lockdowns is it's still a pretty far cry from a true quarantine. I think all we accomplished was to slow the spread a little, which isn't nothing given concerns over shortages of ICU beds and respirators.
Need to figure out why this looks like a crisis mainly for our largest cities. What are the real vectors - mass transit or just density, or both? And I'd love to know what the "playbook" outlined for lockdown strategies, because these statewide implementations looks like we never really thought about how we'd do something like this.
