2020 Presidential Election thread

posted by QuakerOats

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls

LOL, Fox is trying really hard to keep the dream alive, aren't they?

I do expect Trump is not fairing nearly as badly in swing states as some polls show.  And I think he has supporters that are even less likely to admit it than they were in 2016.

I was going to add that there are cracks in the Repub party that maybe weren't there in 2016, but actually I think there's less internal opposition than in 2016 with the "never Trumpers".

If we get a vaccine and economic recovery before November, he'll probably win.  I'd place his odds directly with the odds of both those things happening (quite low).

posted by Spock

Could you imagine the Biden economy getting hit with this?  It would be ten times worse.

Link?

posted by GOONx19
Link?

You do realize he is going to drive up gas prices, raise your income taxes, impose a higher corporate tax that will drive up unemployment......and a few other metrics will be going the wrong way.

I hope you already knew this.  

posted by gut

LOL, Fox is trying really hard to keep the dream alive, aren't they?

I do expect Trump is not fairing nearly as badly in swing states as some polls show.  And I think he has supporters that are even less likely to admit it than they were in 2016.

I was going to add that there are cracks in the Repub party that maybe weren't there in 2016, but actually I think there's less internal opposition than in 2016 with the "never Trumpers".

If we get a vaccine and economic recovery before November, he'll probably win.  I'd place his odds directly with the odds of both those things happening (quite low).

That's what I think, too. It all comes down to Corona and the economy. Those things are still big issues in November, he's out because all of his flailing, "Nothing to see here!!!!" attempts to downplay things will be thrown in his face constantly; if there's a big comeback, he'll ride that to the win because he'll be able to successfully go all in on the "See, I'm right and FAKE NEWS was wrong AGAIN!!!!" hand.

posted by QuakerOats

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/professor-doubles-down-on-prediction-model-showing-trump-having-91-percent-chance-of-winning-election-despite-polls

Not just winning, but by a much wider electoral model.

I would love to see his model given the pandemic and current polling. None of the historic metrics are in his favor. 

As others have said, if the pandemic continues, and the numbers today are not good, it will be a huge surprise again for him to win.

I agree with gut that you are seeing cracks in the R support. If the poll numbers continue to look bad, I could see Rs distance themselves so they can keep the Senate. If Trump loses in November and the Rs lose the Senate, he will go down as failure as a President. 

LOL. That's not how it works, galaxy brain.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/loses-trump-must-resign-immediately-085715571.html

posted by justincredible

LOL. That's not how it works, galaxy brain.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/loses-trump-must-resign-immediately-085715571.html

Hahaha.....as Cuomo keeps reminding us, Trump cannot tell the governors what to close or open nor when to do it.

posted by gut

LOL, Fox is trying really hard to keep the dream alive, aren't they?

I do expect Trump is not fairing nearly as badly in swing states as some polls show.  And I think he has supporters that are even less likely to admit it than they were in 2016.

I was going to add that there are cracks in the Repub party that maybe weren't there in 2016, but actually I think there's less internal opposition than in 2016 with the "never Trumpers".

If we get a vaccine and economic recovery before November, he'll probably win.  I'd place his odds directly with the odds of both those things happening (quite low).

Not a Fox poll.  Just a prof with a model that has worked every time except 2 in a hundred years or so.

Internal polls look good.  Spending in states he narrowly lost last time to try and increase the electoral margin.

Saw my first Biden sign today.

posted by Spock

Saw my first Biden sign today.

Cleveland Heights?

posted by QuakerOats

Not a Fox poll.  Just a prof with a model that has worked every time except 2 in a hundred years or so.

Internal polls look good.  Spending in states he narrowly lost last time to try and increase the electoral margin.

I dug into his model. http://primarymodel.com/

He has only really done it since 2008, but went back and used it for other races since 1912. It is weighted heavily on the primary races and the nature of what party is currently in the White House. He does not provide any links to his data, which is kind of annoying. 

It is easy to see if you just use those aspects how he could have predicted Trump in 2016. Under his model, Trump cruised through the primary, while Clinton struggled to beat Bernie. Clinton also was running for the third D term, which historically, does not happen often. Factor those things and it made sense that Trump won. 

He is basically saying the same this time around: Biden struggled through the primary while Trump ran basically unopposed. Incumbent President's have historically fared rather well to a challenger. It seems that is why he thinks Trump will win. 

I could see that argument, but this year has been really odd. I think it also fails to take into account how the primary calendar has changed over the years, and how not normal the pandemic has made Trump's term so far. If there was not the pandemic, this model makes sense. But, the pandemic has completely skewed some of those metrics in terms of an incumbent Presidency. So, who knows? 

On your point though, have we not learned over the years to really disregard internal polls? Going back to 04, I've always learned to just ignore or downplay them. 

The most concerning thing about this election is going to be the result.

I have a feeling turnout will be lower because of Covid, and that will cause astronomical butthurt and claims of an invalid election if Trump wins.

If Biden wins, the narrative has already been set for "fraud by mail".  I guess it's not surprising, but I can't believe so many people continue to believe in voter fraud.

But given everything else the govt does poorly, it stands to reason there will be plenty of suspicious data with respect to vote by mail.  Surprisingly lower turnout in some areas.  Probably many complaints of lost ballots.  Surprisingly high turnout in other areas.  Suspicious results (i.e. a purple county having 75% voting for one party instead of much closer to 50%).

And it's all only going to be compounded if Biden does resign a few months or year into office.

posted by QuakerOats

Cleveland Heights?

Piqua.  But the street also contained 8 Trump flags and at least 3 Rebel flags

posted by Spock

Piqua. 

prayers go out

posted by MontyBrunswick
prayers go out

Yea....only went up there to play Echo Hills course.

posted by Spock

Yea....only went up there to play Echo Hills course.

don't care

Got my 457 statement.  Worst depression situation and almost complete economic shut down and I have recovered 95% of my investment $ since April 1.  

That is why Trump will be voted for.  If Biden was president we would have collapsed.  

posted by gut

The most concerning thing about this election is going to be the result.

I have a feeling turnout will be lower because of Covid, and that will cause astronomical butthurt and claims of an invalid election if Trump wins.

If Biden wins, the narrative has already been set for "fraud by mail".  I guess it's not surprising, but I can't believe so many people continue to believe in voter fraud.

But given everything else the govt does poorly, it stands to reason there will be plenty of suspicious data with respect to vote by mail.  Surprisingly lower turnout in some areas.  Probably many complaints of lost ballots.  Surprisingly high turnout in other areas.  Suspicious results (i.e. a purple county having 75% voting for one party instead of much closer to 50%).

And it's all only going to be compounded if Biden does resign a few months or year into office.

I can 100% see that. People should expect a delay in the results. I highly doubt we will know who won on election night. If more states are doing mail in voting, that takes time, and if it is new states doing it not used to the load of ballots, there could be hangups and delays. That may tick off Biden and Trump supporters as the results could swing from one guy winning to the other. I could see either one of them going to court like in 2000 to contest the results. 

I could see Trump either not accepting the results as well, or just not giving a shit about the transition period, doing whatever he wants, and then leaving town the day before the inauguration. 

On a different note, I was thinking about this yesterday reading the Op-ed that Maryland Governor Hogan wrote yesterday about the lack of a federal response on testing. Hogan is posturing for a run at 2024. He has made no secret about it. 

Imagine a world where if Clinton did win in 2016, she may have had to go against Larry Hogan in this election. Hogan, from a deeply blue state, has a high approval rating among Ds, is known for his work across the aisle, and is a moderate. I think he would win easily against a Clinton. Yet, here we are where Trump is behind the 8 ball again and will need to pull out of to win a second term. 

So much for Kanye.

Did anyone see the Kamala Harris interview the other day?  I think they wheeled out an alien version of her.

Dude something is going in with that.