posted by Fab4RunnerIt's kind of amazing that all you've cared about this entire time are your family vacations. I believe it was a cruise at first and now it's Miami Beach. An airport/plane and FL are the last two places you'll catch me in the near future lol.
You may not know me as well as you think you do.
All? Seriously? You may want to edit that.
posted by Fab4RunnerTraveling at all would make me nervous, but I'm well aware that I'm more cautious than most. That said, taking a canoe trip in the wilderness is a lot different than getting on a plane and going to Miami Beach. But everyone is free to make their own choices!
You may have missed the part where my whole family had COVID-19. So antibodies are nice and inside us doing their job.
posted by jmogYou may have missed the part where my whole family had COVID-19. So antibodies are nice and inside us doing their job.
I understand that, but if Miami Beach is not open come vacation time, that probably means a lot of people are sick and hospitalized and dying, which seems a tad worse than you guys missing some beach time.
posted by Fab4RunnerI understand that, but if Miami Beach is not open come vacation time, that probably means a lot of people are sick and hospitalized and dying, which seems a tad worse than you guys missing some beach time.
I don’t think you understand or have seen the statistics if you believe a significant amount of people will be “hospitalized and dying” come August.
posted by jmogI don’t think you understand or have seen the statistics if you believe a significant amount of people will be “hospitalized and dying” come August.
Ok! *IF* Miami Beach is not open come vacation time, I'm sure it will have nothing to do with an increase in any of those things!
posted by Fab4RunnerOk! *IF* Miami Beach is not open come vacation time, I'm sure it will have nothing to do with an increase in any of those things!
You came at me with a snarkey and derogatory remark saying “all” I have worried about this whole time is vacations. You don’t know me and apparently have only read about 2 posts. One back in like March where I mentioned a planned family cruise (not happening now with COVID-19) and this one where I mentioned Miami.
You take a couple posts over 3 months time where there were dozens, if not a 100 posts or more in that time frame, and turn it into the only thing I cared about during the COVID-19 crisis?
Did SnL hack your account?
I've seen plenty of estimates that 10-20X as many people have had this as have been diagnosed, but if positive rates are in the single digits even a 99% effective test will have about 50% false positives. But 5 Phillies just tested positive. A few teams isn't maybe representative, but maybe 25% of people have had this. At least in the bigger cities.
And almost in anticipation of "herd immunity", the usual doomsdayers are already saying antibodies might not last long. NYT had two articles, one on a small Chinese study that didn't get to the much less alarming details until 1/2 way down the article. Near the end of the article, they cite a much larger Chinese study saying antibodies below the threshold of the other study may still be effective.
Then a large Chinese study has been publicized, often burying the lede with "antibodies may not last" when, in fact, that was the conclusion in only 10% of cases.
So you can see the narrative forming that herd immunity and/or antibodies are irrelevant. "Even if you've already had this, you need to continue austere measures until there's a vaccine". That said, if you were asymptomatic you might be lucky to have immunity for a year.
posted by gutI've seen plenty of estimates that 10-20X as many people have had this as have been diagnosed, but if positive rates are in the single digits even a 99% effective test will have about 50% false positives. But 5 Phillies just tested positive. A few teams isn't maybe representative, but maybe 25% of people have had this. At least in the bigger cities.
And almost in anticipation of "herd immunity", the usual doomsdayers are already saying antibodies might not last long. NYT had two articles, one on a small Chinese study that didn't get to the much less alarming details until 1/2 way down the article. Near the end of the article, they cite a much larger Chinese study saying antibodies below the threshold of the other study may still be effective.
Then a large Chinese study has been publicized, often burying the lede with "antibodies may not last" when, in fact, that was the conclusion in only 10% of cases.
So you can see the narrative forming that herd immunity and/or antibodies are irrelevant. "Even if you've already had this, you need to continue austere measures until there's a vaccine". That said, if you were asymptomatic you might be lucky to have immunity for a year.
Antibodies for this type of sickness (flu-like) typically last for 6 months. Which is why the flu vaccine is a yearly thing.
However, even with low antibodies herd immunity still works after about 2 seasons. The swine flu, the bird flu, SARS, etc all lasted about 2 seasons before herd immunity kicked it out (statistically).
COVID will be back this fall, that is nearly certain. It probably won't be as bad as the first wave, but it will most likely be the last wave.
The question is do we go into full blown panic again.
As someone who had 5 immediate family members with full blown COVID, 3 others that were asymptomatic, one elderly friend who passed from it, one elderly family member who was listed as passed from it but was never confirmed (was at a nursing home that had cases and she got labeled as a death from COVID even with no test to confirm)...
The disease truly wasn't as bad as it has been made out to be. It is a mild flu that last longer than the flu for healthy people. I had the Flu A back in January, my symptoms were far worse than COVID symptoms my family members had, but I only had it for 2-3 days. They had it for 2-3 weeks.
We could have had the same/similar results if we had just protected the vulnerable (don't visit your elderly family members, no visits to hospice/nursing homes, protect those with respiratory problems, etc). Instead we quarantined the healthy and we sent COVID-19 positive cases BACK TO THEIR NURSING HOMES to spread it like wildfire.
I am willing to be wrong, but based on what people on this board have mentioned/said, I may have been hit (more cases, etc) harder in my family than most on here, and I will still tell you it was not that bad. My mom had it fairly bad, and she worked from home the whole time she had it. My wife had it really bad and if she had a job that she could work from home, she could have worked the whole time. Matter of fact she somewhat remodeled our bedroom (new paint, some change in trim, etc) while she was sick with COVID.
My sister, who had it, worked the whole time from home.
I am not saying it doesn't suck, I am not saying that the body aches and headaches weren't bad. I am saying that the normal seasonal flu, at least symptom wise, was far worse, just shorter.
Now, I know this is not the case for elderly, which is why I said we absolutely should have, and should again this winter, protect them by limiting visits or eliminating them all together. But to healthy people this is an annoying inconvenience even if they get symptoms. It is not that bad.
The flu virus is not this at this point . There is no evidence of the virus changing its genetic code when it invades a person. The flu virus changes slightly as it steals host RNA.
posted by SpockThe flu virus is not this at this point . There is no evidence of the virus changing its genetic code when it invades a person. The flu virus changes slightly as it steals host RNA.
Stfu, you’re a gym teacher.
posted by SportsAndLadyStfu, you’re a gym teacher.
Well let me teach you something since you are the idiot around here:
https://www.embl.de/aboutus/communication_outreach/media_relations/2016/161221-Cusack/
Dont you know how this stuff works? You ever wonder why we cant cure the Flu but we cured measles, mumps and dozens of other viruses? Nobody has come up with the evidence that the corona virus changes its genetic code (if it does...no vaccine)
posted by SpockWell let me teach you something since you are the idiot around here:
https://www.embl.de/aboutus/communication_outreach/media_relations/2016/161221-Cusack/
Dont you know how this stuff works? You ever wonder why we cant cure the Flu but we cured measles, mumps and dozens of other viruses? Nobody has come up with the evidence that the corona virus changes its genetic code (if it does...no vaccine)
You’re a gym teacher
COVID unit in my hospital opening back. Not looking forward to going back to that.
posted by friendfromlowryCOVID unit in my hospital opening back. Not looking forward to going back to that.
Is there a mass of people needing medical care?
posted by SpockIs there a mass of people needing medical care?
Kettering main, MVH, Grandview all running full both of normal junk and their COVID units.
If antibodies don’t last wouldn’t that mean a vaccine wouldn’t work?
posted by sportchamppsIf antibodies don’t last wouldn’t that mean a vaccine wouldn’t work?
Big part of the reason one needs a flu shot annually.
posted by Automatikhttps://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1275950050712211456?s=20
This is 2020.
ICL was there, he loved it!
MUH FREEEEDOMS!
