Covid-19 discussion, continued...

posted by Spock

Damn Biden and the Dems dont know what they are doing.  Time for impeachment.

Thanks for admitting he won.

Wouldn’t partial lockdowns help with hospital burdens and buy some time for a vaccine that’s literally here, just needs rolled out? 

posted by like_that

I can't blame those people for having this attitude considering what they were told back in March.  

LOL, reminds me a guy I ran into the store a while back.  Might have been 20 or 25 years old.  Walks into the store and after a few seconds fumbles around to put his mask on (the clerk just looked at me and shook his head, but not really a big deal).  Then I'm waiting in line and the floor is marked where to stand 6 feet apart.  He walks up and stands right next to me, almost space-invader close.  I move up to get away from him.  And then he moves up.  I move again, and he moves next to me again.

I don't think he was selfish, I just think he was an oblivious moron.

posted by kizer permanente

Wouldn’t partial lockdowns help with hospital burdens and buy some time for a vaccine that’s literally here, just needs rolled out? 

I'm not sure they're necessary if people would follow other recommendations.  It's sort of like with what they did with smoking - weren't real successful at convincing people to quit, so they started taking away opportunities for you to light up.  Pseudo-lockdowns are basically remediation because compliance on other guidelines is not good.

They said a few days ago that they consider an "exposure" being close to someone for more than 15 minutes in a 24-hr period.  I don't know if that means inside 6 feet and without a mask, but they've said 2 hours for Thanksgiving so we can still have some socializing if we're responsible.

Private parties have moved indoors with the weather, and I think that's what's driving the spikes.  Same thing we saw when bars re-opened with very lax enforcement of guidelines.

posted by gut

LMAO.  You're a big fan of the intellectually dishonest argument.  It's not an "accidental admission" lockdowns don't work when you're talking about not being locked down.  Not to mention, there's a huge difference in transmission rates when wearing masks, distancing and being outdoors vs. doing none of those thing.

Lockdowns DO WORK to slow the spread, which is kind of relevant when hospitals are becoming overburdened.  And I'm not recommending it, but a severe and long enough lockdown would eventually knock it down to manageable levels where you could eventually win.  Quarantines/isolation in hospitals work, that's why they do it, which based on your line of reasoning here you don't seem to believe.

Why lock down?  You might have heard about the a vaccine?  And, again, there's other ways to help mitigate in addition to lockdowns.  Also, if you're committed to doing it right and get the virus down to levels where testing and contact tracing can isolate clusters, again it works. 

The problem is not that lockdowns don't work, the problem has been commitment, compliance (and enforcement).  You're smart enough to know this - don't be the guy that ignores facts and common sense to win an internet argument.

Maybe we are talking about two different definitions of "working".

You are saying they work because they delay the inevitable.

I am saying they don't work because that's all they do is delay the inevitable.

They are like a snow plow, it gets the snow off the parking lot but leaves a huge pile that takes months to melt. The # of cases during the lockdown stays low (like a plowed parking lot) but at the end of the lockdown there is a huge pile of cases just like we are seeing now ALL OVER THE GLOBE.

You want to talk about science but reality is playing out right now exactly how I stated it. Heavy lockdowns delayed the inevitable, that's it.

posted by gut

Lockdowns buy time, which absolutely has value to help manage your healthcare system, and also with a vaccine around the corner.

And the fact that there isn't a silver bullet doesn't mean you give up and do nothing.  Multiple protocols, together, make a big difference.  We've seen plenty of evidence of this - South Korea and New Zealand, while perhaps lucky never to have gotten overwhelmed, nevertheless continue to be successful because their case rates are low enough to manage with testing and tracing.  Even Australia had to institute a severe lockdown when things started surging, but if you were to compare to the US and Europe they re-locked much earlier when cases started to rise.

Let's call it for what it is: lockdowns work, masks work, distancing works but people are selfish assholes.

Those of us that can work from home during a lockdown and still bring home a paycheck are privileged. I don't think those that don't want to lock down again because they have to feed their families and work out of the house to pay the mortgage are selfish assholes.

I was lucky, most of my company went on heavy furloughs (1 or 2 weeks a month each person) but my office stayed busy enough that only management went on furlough. If we did more lockdowns we would definitely be furloughed this time. 

Its not being a selfish asshole to want to keep your job.

I got a call today about being in the AZ1222 vaccine study? With all the vaccines I haven’t kept track of which ones are looking good besides Pfizer because  this weeks news. How is the AZ 1222 vaccine looking would you guys agree to participate in the trial. 

posted by sportchampps

I got a call today about being in the AZ1222 vaccine study? With all the vaccines I haven’t kept track of which ones are looking good besides Pfizer because  this weeks news. How is the AZ 1222 vaccine looking would you guys agree to participate in the trial. 

AstraZeneca. It was the original leader.

posted by jmog

Those of us that can work from home during a lockdown and still bring home a paycheck are privileged. I don't think those that don't want to lock down again because they have to feed their families and work out of the house to pay the mortgage are selfish assholes.

I was lucky, most of my company went on heavy furloughs (1 or 2 weeks a month each person) but my office stayed busy enough that only management went on furlough. If we did more lockdowns we would definitely be furloughed this time. 

Its not being a selfish asshole to want to keep your job.

Quarantines absolutely work.  That's a scientific fact.  Stop being an obtuse jackass.

The pseudo quarantines also WORK to slow and delay, and that has merit if there's a light at the end of the tunnel like, you know, A VACCINE.

I'm not talking about people wanting to go to back work.  When I say selfish assholes I'm talking about the people refusing to follow mask and social distancing guidelines.  Many places have been able to make their work environments safe. This is plainly obvious, too, and I think you agree....lockdowns become necessary when people are reckless and selfish assholes.

Just look at the data - cases were coming down consistently since peaking after Memorial Day.  Then kids went back to school/college and the weather got colder and cases started spiking.  That spread isn't coming from work, it's coming from jackasses not following the safety protocols.

So if you're so concerned about people getting back to work, then you agree with me that people who don't wear masks are selfish assholes.

posted by Devils Advocate

Trump and disruption. That’s about right

Actually, that was a great attribute and much needed.  And four more years of disrupting the establishment swamp would have been cathartic.

posted by queencitybuckeye

Early on, the CDC's expressed opinion was that masks weren't helpful. A big part of the reason was a fear of a run on masks creating a shortage in hospitals. IOW, they told a lie mostly with good intentions, but dullards hang on to that lie like it's an absolute truth. Most of them know better, but use it to support their anti-mask position.

But 'Trump lied and people died' ..................amirite

posted by gut

Quarantines absolutely work.  That's a scientific fact.  Stop being an obtuse jackass.

The pseudo quarantines also WORK to slow and delay, and that has merit if there's a light at the end of the tunnel like, you know, A VACCINE.

I'm not talking about people wanting to go to back work.  When I say selfish assholes I'm talking about the people refusing to follow mask and social distancing guidelines.  Many places have been able to make their work environments safe. This is plainly obvious, too, and I think you agree....lockdowns become necessary when people are reckless and selfish assholes.

Just look at the data - cases were coming down consistently since peaking after Memorial Day.  Then kids went back to school/college and the weather got colder and cases started spiking.  That spread isn't coming from work, it's coming from jackasses not following the safety protocols.

So if you're so concerned about people getting back to work, then you agree with me that people who don't wear masks are selfish assholes.

You can call me names, or you can relax and use logic.

What you call “working” really appears to be just kicking the can down the road. Eventually the same number of people are getting sick either way you are just picking when the large spike will be  Now or later.

How is that “working”? Same number of infections, just moved down the road to later.

There is no real evidence that the spike isn’t just due to colder weather like normal flu seasons and not “people being assholes” as you put it. 

Look at the months that had low numbers vs spikes, normal flu season variation due to cold weather/people staying in doors is just as likely a reason as any other list of reasons you have given  

Occam’s Razor says I maybe right.

posted by jmog

You can call me names, or you can relax and use logic.

What you call “working” really appears to be just kicking the can down the road. Eventually the same number of people are getting sick either way you are just picking when the large spike will be  Now or later.

How is that “working”? Same number of infections, just moved down the road to later.

There is no real evidence that the spike isn’t just due to colder weather like normal flu seasons and not “people being assholes” as you put it. 

Look at the months that had low numbers vs spikes, normal flu season variation due to cold weather/people staying in doors is just as likely a reason as any other list of reasons you have given  

Occam’s Razor says I maybe right.

LOL.  I'm done with your intellectually dishonest arguments.  There is a vaccine coming out in a month, so spare me the "kick the can down the road" bullshit.

I'm done debating this with you - everyone else in the country, except pretty much you and a bunch of "muh rights!" people, sees the disregard for masks and distancing every day.  Combine that with more time indoors, and you get an acceleration of cases.

Weather doesn't affect the virus all that much, whereas flu is actually seasonal.  Another idiotic argument that I think you know better.  What's different are the mass spreader events (a.k.a. people partying) are moving back indoors.

posted by QuakerOats

But 'Trump lied and people died' ..................amirite

One can approve of some of the things he's done as POTUS, but he's a pathological liar. He lies even when he'd be better served being truthful.

posted by jmog

What you call “working” really appears to be just kicking the can down the road. Eventually the same number of people are getting sick either way you are just picking when the large spike will be  Now or later.

posted by gut

LOL.  I'm done with your intellectually dishonest arguments.  There is a vaccine coming out in a month, so spare me the "kick the can down the road" bullshit.

I'm done debating this with you - everyone else in the country, except pretty much you and a bunch of "muh rights!" people, sees the disregard for masks and distancing every day.  Combine that with more time indoors, and you get an acceleration of cases.

Weather doesn't affect the virus all that much, whereas flu is actually seasonal.  Another idiotic argument that I think you know better.  What's different are the mass spreader events (a.k.a. people partying) are moving back indoors.

You can keep with the ad hominem attacks, or stick to logic, reason, and facts to back up your argument.

Also, weather doesn't affect the virus is not true:

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-does-weather-affect-covid-19#Temperature

So if you are ok with lockdowns now because a vaccine is coming out in a couple months, how about back in April when we KNEW we were close to a year away from a vaccine? Were lockdowns "ok" then? If you say yes, then YOU are the one being intellectually dishonest, not me.

The dips and peaks in cases line up perfectly with seasonal respiratory viruses, which this is a respiratory virus. Facts don't lie. 

I am not saying that is the only cause, I am saying that ignoring it is asinine.

posted by queencitybuckeye
Unless you believe all of the promising vaccines will turn out to be worthless, this statement is categorically untrue.

I will buy what you're saying here and that this particular statement is not true NOW. I was more going to in general statements, like when we first went on lockdowns and we assumed a vaccine was at least a year away.

I have to agree w jmog which is rare .. a vaccine being available is a long way away.. seems like we are just delaying the imev

posted by geeblock

I have to agree w jmog which is rare .. a vaccine being available is a long way away.. seems like we are just delaying the imev

Especially when you consider:

Sweden-no lockdown

Western Europe-heavy lockdowns

USA-in between

The total cases, deaths, etc when corrected for population density are all really close to each other.

Are we really that close to a vaccination? Pfizer said in their press release Monday for 50 million doses in 2020, which I don’t know if that’s best case scenario, or low balling, or pretty spot on realistic? Regardless, it’s a small fraction of the country. We also won’t know who’s been vaccinated, who’s resisting, etc.