Poll: 2018 Midterm predictions

More networks calling the Ds will take the House. It is looking like they will take at least 30 seats. 

Rs already hold the Senate and could get up to 55 seats if they sweep out west. 

And CNN is already setting Dem talking points for house.  Impeachment and obstruction.

posted by Spock

And CNN is already setting Dem talking points for house.  Impeachment and obstruction.

Rs will be a hell of a firewall in the Senate. If they get to 54, based on the 2020 map, the Rs will keep control of the Senate through 2022. That's huge and to me is the bigger story tonight. The Rs cleaned up in the Senate. 

To put it another way, this is 2010 in reverse. Instead of a D White House, D Senate and R House, we now have an R White House, R Senate, and D House. I fully expect 2 years of gridlock just like we got in 2011 and 2012. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Rs will be a hell of a firewall in the Senate. If they get to 54, based on the 2020 map, the Rs will keep control of the Senate through 2022. That's huge and to me is the bigger story tonight. The Rs cleaned up in the Senate. 

 

Agreed and the blowback on the dems winning the senate and putting Pelosi in charge will put Trump right in line to be relected in 2020

posted by Spock

Agreed and the blowback on the dems winning the senate and putting Pelosi in charge will put Trump right in line to be relected in 2020

I don't know about that.  

But Trump is still stronger than most people want to admit.  If the economy continues to do well, I'd say there's a good chance Trump will be re-elected.  If we have a recession in the next 2 years - and, I don't know, that's probably like 60%+ likely - then Trump gets annhilated.

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Its Jersey. They have no morals.....

 

I laughed!

posted by gut

I don't know about that.  

But Trump is still stronger than most people want to admit.  If the economy continues to do well, I'd say there's a good chance Trump will be re-elected.  If we have a recession in the next 2 years - and, I don't know, that's probably like 60%+ likely - then Trump gets annhilated.

Fully depends on the timing/severity. 

posted by iclfan2

Only Fox has called the house for the Dems. Seems a bit early, but will probably happen. 

How did Menendez get re-elected in NJ? Aren’t we pretending to care about morals these days?

Add Keith Ellison to the list as he won Minnesota AG.  Liberals have never cared about the Democrats' moral shortcomings no matter how much they virtue signal. 

Ds took 2 out of 3 areas, the House and Gov. races. They lost big in the Senate. So, it's the old Meat Loaf song...two out of three ain't bad. 

I took away that it is going to be hard to beat Trump in 2020. He still has pull in Florida, Ohio, and Indiana. If he keeps all three, I think he can just try and hold on to Penn, Mich, and Wisc and he wins reelection. 

With that, the Ds need to nominate someone that plays in Florida, Ohio, Indiana and the upper midwest. Otherwise, it is a repeat of 2016. 

posted by Spock

And CNN is already setting Dem talking points for house.  Impeachment and obstruction.

This is all that we will hear about until 2020.....

posted by like_that

Add Keith Ellison to the list as he won Minnesota AG.  Liberals have never cared about the Democrats' moral shortcomings no matter how much they virtue signal. 

Ugh. Well, on the otherside, Steve King won in Iowa. 

Reading through the results, it looks like over 100 women will be seated in the House, coming from all backgrounds as well. That is a record and fits the pattern from earlier this year as this is the most women who have ever run for office in the House. 

I also think it is not a given Pelosi is speaker and even if she is, I think the House will not go full on impeach mode. They may start off on healthcare, infrastructure and other easy items. 

Also, the Senate, it does appear that voting against Kavanaugh cost Ds. Every one of them that voted against him..lost. Trump can take solace that no matter what the House does, he can work with a strong R Senate. That R Senate will also confirm nearly anyone he puts forward for judges and other cabinete posts. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

I also think it is not a given Pelosi is speaker and even if she is, I think the House will not go full on impeach mode. They may start off on healthcare, infrastructure and other easy items. 

I hope they do try to impeach. What is the final number of Senators on each side? I couldn't find the total. Assuming the Miss. person wins. 

Turns out that Senator Brown could have been gotten with a decent candidate. Does Ohio have one? It seems like cupboard is pretty bare.

posted by iclfan2

I hope they do try to impeach. What is the final number of Senators on each side? I couldn't find the total. Assuming the Miss. person wins. 

Last I saw had the Rs at 46 seats with no race or they won handily. They then picked up Texas, Tenn, Mizzou, Indiana, and North Dakota. That's the 51 we know for sure.

Right now the Rs are leading in Az, FL, and Montana. If those leads hold, that is the 54. 

Mississippi is a runoff that will occur in 3 weeks, but the R should win, and that would make 55. 

I'd say if 2020 goes really well for the Rs, getting to 60 is not outside the realm of possbility. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Last I saw had the Rs at 46 seats with no race or they won handily. They then picked up Texas, Tenn, Mizzou, Indiana, and North Dakota. That's the 51 we know for sure.

Right now the Rs are leading in Az, FL, and Montana. If those leads hold, that is the 54. 

Mississippi is a runoff that will occur in 3 weeks, but the R should win, and that would make 55. 

I'd say if 2020 goes really well for the Rs, getting to 60 is not outside the realm of possbility. 

Thanks. I figured it was close to 54, 55 would be nice. Another Supreme court vacancy would really blow things up.

posted by iclfan2

Thanks. I figured it was close to 54, 55 would be nice. Another Supreme court vacancy would really blow things up.

Yeah, that's why Trump is so giddy. He can appoint whoever he wants now. 

One thing for sure, the Libertarian Party is going nowhere as it stands.  Gary Johnson needs to quit being a face of their party.  He does nothing to help anymore.  Plus, the LP can't even get their own shit together on many of their stances.   I think libertarians are better off trying to infiltrate the GOP (i.e. Paul, Amash, Massie), than trying to legitimize the party.  I am sure justin and otrap don't agree, but with how polarized our the two parties are, I think this is their best route. 

posted by queencitybuckeye

Turns out that Senator Brown could have been gotten with a decent candidate. Does Ohio have one? It seems like cupboard is pretty bare.

No kidding, that race was A LOT closer than I was expecting.