posted by BoatShoesYou have a much better prediction record than me as of late but I will now predict that with the week of FBI investigation that Kavanaugh goes down. The report will be bland but provide enough info to allow the big four to say he perjured himself at the hearing.
Agreed that 53-47 might be a reach. Still pretty sure he’s getting confirmed. Lest we forget that Cocaine Mitch only needs 50 votes.
It wouldn’t shock me see him schedule the vote mid week if he knows he has 50.
posted by fish82Agreed that 53-47 might be a reach. Still pretty sure he’s getting confirmed. Lest we forget that Cocaine Mitch only needs 50 votes.
It wouldn’t shock me see him schedule the vote mid week if he knows he has 50.
Proving that neither party has a monopoly on scumbag behavior.
posted by queencitybuckeyeProving that neither party has a monopoly on scumbag behavior.
Yup.
Funny how a lot of the liberal chuckleheads talk about how Ford was "sincere and believable" but Kavanaugh was a "performance". Inherent bias, sexism even, to take their testimony for anything other than face value. Or that Kavanaugh's angry and emotional response disqualifies him as unfit. I don't know if this is all a new low, but it's absolutely disgusting how the Dems have exploited, shamed and humiliated two good people (and their friends and family) for purely partisan political purposes.
Kavanaugh said some things that were pretty dubious, enough to make you think he told at least a few fibs (which actually DOES disqualify him). Ford's selective memory and account also had some issues if we were to be seriously critical, or had she faced a more serious probe on par with what Kavanaugh received.
I'm not sure the FBI will be questioning Ford, which doesn't make a lot of sense. Also not pursuing the "gang rape" accusation, which while probably the correct choice is guaranteed to remain a stain on all this.
Between last night and early this morning I watched 3 different body language videos on the Christine Ford "hearing". None of them were particularly kind or in her favor. This could be that all three of the content makers were republicans or it could be because their feelings of disgust of the freak show or it could be because they know they'll get more clicks. Who knows.
Here's an example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGxr1VQ2dPI
posted by CenterBHSFanBetween last night and early this morning I watched 3 different body language videos on the Christine Ford "hearing". None of them were particularly kind or in her favor.
Regardless of whatever agenda, such things are junk analysis. Useful generally, perhaps, but not everyone is going to act and react the same way.
I will say my guess for the stalling was witness prep. Perfectly reasonable, but if you start wondering about why she remembered certain things and not others, it begs the question if she didn't misrepresent her confidence in some recollections. She was 100% coached to be more credible and believable, as Kavanaugh was or has been.
Had she been properly cross-examined, like in a court of law, I doubt she would be as compelling. You don't know where the party was, but you know you only had one beer? You remember who was there, but not how you got there or how you left? How often did you and your BFF come and go from parties separately?
posted by gutRegardless of whatever agenda, such things are junk analysis. Useful generally, perhaps, but not everyone is going to act and react the same way.
I wouldn't call it junk, actually. Used by itself it can be fairly shady, generalized or unreliable. But in conjunction with investigative processes it is useful. After all, it is regularly utilized with police investigations, FBI, etc. Certainly in interrogations.
As far as the vids I watched, I'm not sure if it wasn't weaponized to fit a particular view. It is an interesting study, nonetheless!
posted by CenterBHSFanI wouldn't call it junk, actually. Used by itself it can be fairly shady, generalized or unreliable. But in conjunction with investigative processes it is useful. After all, it is regularly utilized with police investigations, FBI, etc. Certainly in interrogations.
I don't know. I saw a lot of other analyses saying exactly the opposite.
I think we all intuitively know, from body language, when someone is being deceptive. Trained investigators can become a bit more perceptive, but I'd expect there are maybe only about a handful of reliable red flags.
In the case of Ford and Kavanaugh, what I've seen with respect to body language has ventured into the unreliable and very subtle realms (a.k.a "junk"). It would be interesting to see a sample of Ford giving a lecture, to see what her normal tone and mannerisms are. I, too, thought her voice was oddly high pitched and baby-like, and saw some comments how a highly educated and accomplished, professional woman would not speak like that.
posted by gutIt would be interesting to see a sample of Ford giving a lecture, to see what her normal tone and mannerisms are. I, too, thought her voice was oddly high pitched and baby-like, and saw some comments how a highly educated and accomplished, professional woman would not speak like that.
I agree haha! I never could stand the little girl voice that some women naturally have or use. Granted, you can't help how your voice is unless you make the constant effort... but still, it's annoying af.
Welp, the left is not going to like Mitchell's memo. They are already attacking her for being partisan.
posted by like_thatWelp, the left is not going to like Mitchell's memo. They are already attacking her for being partisan.
#Believewomen .... unless it's not "our" women
The left is already complaining about the FBI investigation, which is now looking into drinking more than anything else. It's dumb. People pretending he perjured himself for downplaying his drinking. I'm fairly certain the last 6 FBI background checks delved into his drinking enough.
posted by iclfan2#Believewomen .... unless it's not "our" women
The left is already complaining about the FBI investigation, which is now looking into drinking more than anything else. It's dumb. People pretending he perjured himself for downplaying his drinking. I'm fairly certain the last 6 FBI background checks delved into his drinking enough.
I get why they're doing it. It'll probably end up being fruitless, but I get it.
Having said that, I think we're at a point now where we need to move on. Vote on Kavanaugh. Let the chips fall. If something comes of the investigation ... something substantial ... then move for impeachment.
I'm the last person to complain about stifling political movement or advancement (can't even bring myself to call it "progress"), but Kavanaugh's absence doesn't do anything to shrink the size of government.
posted by O-TrapI get why they're doing it. It'll probably end up being fruitless, but I get it.
Having said that, I think we're at a point now where we need to move on. Vote on Kavanaugh. Let the chips fall. If something comes of the investigation ... something substantial ... then move for impeachment.
I'm the last person to complain about stifling political movement or advancement (can't even bring myself to call it "progress"), but Kavanaugh's absence doesn't do anything to shrink the size of government.
We were at that point weeks ago.
posted by like_thatWe were at that point weeks ago.
I don't know about weeks. Maybe. Either way, we're certainly there now.
posted by O-TrapI don't know about weeks. Maybe. Either way, we're certainly there now.
Well I am glad you arrived to the same place that I have been for weeks. Welcome!!
posted by like_thatWell I am glad you arrived to the same place that I have been for weeks. Welcome!!
Well, I've been here for a little bit. I just didn't automatically default to being at this point. It was, more or less, when I heard what the polygraph questions were and that the therapy sessions in 2012 possibly didn't even mention him by name. So, I suppose a couple weeks is probably fair.
Damn. It doesn't feel like it's been that long.
the 60 minute interview was BS last night, How could you not have asked the Dem senator Coons whether the FBI investigation would change his vote if he it comes out and they find nothing?
posted by Spockthe 60 minute interview was BS last night, How could you not have asked the Dem senator Coons whether the FBI investigation would change his vote if he it comes out and they find nothing?
If the FBI investigation would change his vote, that would mean that he would have voted 'aye' for Kavanaugh in the first place.
I think we all know he wouldn't have. As such, it doesn't seem like a fruitful question.
I predict the FBI will find some witnesses who say he was a heavy drinker, to the point of being sick/blacking out multiple times. And then will have a screaming shit-show about how Kavanaugh perjured himself and therefore cannot be confirmed.
Still really hung-up on her BFF claiming not to even know Kavanaugh.
Has anyone read Mitchell's memo? I love how the left is saying it's a partisan report, but I would love to see them actually refute any of the facts she laid out.
