2021 NFL Season thread

posted by Laley23

No, sorry. Not early. You do it late, like starting in the 4th. Thought process is you need 3 unanswered scores to win. If you can convert the first one, you only need 2. If you fail but convert the second, you are tied and still need that 3rd score. If you fail on both, you still need that 3rd score anyway. 

The goal SHOULDNT be to simply get to OT when down 14 (or whatever number). It should be to minimize the times you need to score to win. Getting to OT just makes it a 50% probability you win or lose. Wouldnt you rather go for 2 twice hoping to convert first, with the backup of the second time and at worst need to get a last minute 3rd score. 

I think that you need to look at the matchups in each case. If I'm the Ravens and have Tucker, I like my chances in OT because he gives a big advantage.

I think I'd rather win than be analytically correct.

posted by BR1986FB

I think I'd rather win than be analytically correct.

How did going for it yesterday cost them a win?

They also beat Chiefs and Browns SPECIFICALLY by being analytically correct. So they’d have 2 more loses and 1 more win by that logic. 

posted by Laley23

No, sorry. Not early. You do it late, like starting in the 4th. Thought process is you need 3 unanswered scores to win. If you can convert the first one, you only need 2. If you fail but convert the second, you are tied and still need that 3rd score. If you fail on both, you still need that 3rd score anyway. 

The goal SHOULDNT be to simply get to OT when down 14 (or whatever number). It should be to minimize the times you need to score to win. Getting to OT just makes it a 50% probability you win or lose. Wouldnt you rather go for 2 twice hoping to convert first, with the backup of the second time and at worst need to get a last minute 3rd score. 

Please define “late”

posted by Ironman92

Please define “late”

As in, you score, get a stop, score...is the next score going to win the game? Generally, I think anytime in the 4th Q. 

And just for you I92, cause I feel you will agree on this. 

You get the score and stop and score. If you are tied or up, other team is going for the win, and likely getting the FG attempt. 

If you are losing, you likely get a stop and the ball back with a chance to win. Its maximizing all these scenarios. 

posted by Laley23

As in, you score, get a stop, score...is the next score going to win the game? Generally, I think anytime in the 4th Q. 

I agree with that. That’s late enough to eliminate all the “feel/gut” factors

posted by Laley23

And just for you I92, cause I feel you will agree on this. 

You get the score and stop and score. If you are tied or up, other team is going for the win, and likely getting the FG attempt. 

If you are losing, you likely get a stop and the ball back with a chance to win. Its maximizing all these scenarios. 

What if the team realizes the momentum shift and decides to go for the 1st down to run out the clock instead of punting it back?

Anyways I get all this I was just calling out your down 14 always go for 2, knowing you didn’t mean it early in the game….or even 3rd qtr as you explained.

I just wanted the Chargers to take the 3 to start the game after their returner inexplicably fell down, then they forgot Ekeler got them all the way down to the 6 then ran dumb plays….take the 3 and go from there.  The other ones I’m good with but not going for 2 to make it a 9 point lead just doesn’t compute with me based on everything else they had done….and this was late in the game.

I also wanted some consideration for the fact that the Chiefs have been great on defense the past 6 weeks and especially stingy the last month….this wasn’t the Falcons and a 41-38 game, the Chiefs have been excellent on defense. I don’t feel it was a factor at all with SD, just by god we are going for it because that’s what we do…..but if we have the chance late in the game to make it a 2 possession game, we are going to do something else.

posted by Ironman92

I just wanted the Chargers to take the 3 to start the game after their returner inexplicably fell down, then they forgot Ekeler got them all the way down to the 6 then ran dumb plays….take the 3 and go from there.  

To me, the issue is less "better to get 7 than 3", but more the situation at times. There's a big difference between 4th and Goal from the 1 and 4th and Goal from the 5, which was the game's first possession. Forgetting about the run and doing four straight pass plays definitely played a role in that -- which leads to the point that egghead analytic decision-making and bonehead play-calling probably aren't the best combination.

One could also say the failures that resulted from those missed opportunities that lead to 0 instead of 3 contributed to the game's momentum, as the Chargers looked to be the better team for much of the game, but it's hard to discount the mental aspect of coming up completely empty on multiple trips inside the 10 -- both negatively for LAC and positively for KC. I mean, analytics are good in a lot of ways, but anything that can't involve the mental aspect of a game is in no way a be-all, end-all for how decisions should be made.

Either way, the argument over how important analytics are is really taking away from the most important takeaway from last night: How much Joe Buck fucking sucks. How did he phrase it? "I'm not going to speculate on this injury, but I think his arms are shaking because it's a bit cooler than usual in Los Angeles." Or Fox in general. Yeah, we all really needed extreme close-ups of the dude out cold on the ground and of said shaky arms. Good thing the game didn't have a Theismann/Krumrie incident or we'd have 500 close-up slow-mo replays of a leg flipping and flopping in multiple directions while Buck explained that pro athletes do a lot of agility training and, therefore, are really flexible.

posted by Heretic

To me, the issue is less "better to get 7 than 3", but more the situation at times. There's a big difference between 4th and Goal from the 1 and 4th and Goal from the 5, which was the game's first possession. Forgetting about the run and doing four straight pass plays definitely played a role in that -- which leads to the point that egghead analytic decision-making and bonehead play-calling probably aren't the best combination.

One could also say the failures that resulted from those missed opportunities that lead to 0 instead of 3 contributed to the game's momentum, as the Chargers looked to be the better team for much of the game, but it's hard to discount the mental aspect of coming up completely empty on multiple trips inside the 10 -- both negatively for LAC and positively for KC. I mean, analytics are good in a lot of ways, but anything that can't involve the mental aspect of a game is in no way a be-all, end-all for how decisions should be made.

Either way, the argument over how important analytics are is really taking away from the most important takeaway from last night: How much Joe Buck fucking sucks. How did he phrase it? "I'm not going to speculate on this injury, but I think his arms are shaking because it's a bit cooler than usual in Los Angeles." Or Fox in general. Yeah, we all really needed extreme close-ups of the dude out cold on the ground and of said shaky arms. Good thing the game didn't have a Theismann/Krumrie incident or we'd have 500 close-up slow-mo replays of a leg flipping and flopping in multiple directions while Buck explained that pro athletes do a lot of agility training and, therefore, are really flexible.

When Joe started alluding to the scary injury and then mentioned the weather….I immediately IMMEDIATELY cringed and hoped to myself he wasn’t going to say it….and then he did. Nothing else that night can be anywhere  near as dumb as that……every fan and analytics person can agree in full on that. Would’ve loved to see the producers face as that was going on.

Well….the Steelers aren’t even good at tanking. Hoping for the next punt here in 3 offensive plays that he can just punt it backwards and save some clock

How is the punter so bad?

posted by iclfan2

How is the punter so bad?

He either blasts one and punt coverage team sucks or he shanks it 28 yards…..which is the distance I’d predict for myself with no pressure

4th straight game without a first half TD

That’s on you Mike Tomlin

Get some first downs and touchdowns and watch the defense miraculously improve.

T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward are the only 2 playing like they care….that’s on Tomlin too

posted by Ironman92

4th straight game without a first half TD

That’s on you Mike Tomlin

Get some first downs and touchdowns and watch the defense miraculously improve.

T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward are the only 2 playing like they care….that’s on Tomlin too

I just want to know if this is a game between two playoff-contending NFL teams or two 0-9 high school teams battling to see which one of them gets to say they won once. Have they combined for 100 yards in the second half yet?

Titans just handing the game to Pittsburgh. Come on

Great tackle to win the game!  Spot way too generous to add controvery.

Have to say I'm a bit surprised. Figured that turning two turnovers into three-and-out field goals that didn't even take all that much time off the clock would lead to giving up the winning TD. It almost did, but they survived somehow, thanks to Haden's tackle!

NFL getting what they want. Let’s have 25 teams vying for the playoffs and everyone can lose to anyone