2020 Presidential Election thread

posted by Automatik

Tell us more. Where do you own property that will drop 20% due to who becomes president? 

I think he said the bustling metropolis of Tipp City, OH. With a median income of $65k, he stands to lose 10's of dollars. 

posted by ptown_trojans_1

Turnout will be the election. That is why I think Ds are freaking out because if they get the pick wrong and they can get get turnout high, boom, Trump wins easily. 

If the Ds can continue the turnout they got in 2018-2019, I think they feel like they have a chance. 

posted by Spock

If any of these fools win.....there goes 20% gains on my property value and retirement accounts.

Bro....as long as the Senate is still controlled by the Rs nothing Bernie, Warren, or even Pete throw out there will ever see the light of day. The market will probably be more like Obama's last years, which was fine low growth, but no big shocks. 
 

 

https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/

The Senate could be closer than one thinks.

I believe the Rs will hold it, but maybe only by 1 or 2.

There is an outside chance the Ds are able to make it 50/50 (I don't see the Ds winning it outright). If they get it 50/50 and win the POTUS, they could go nuclear option (assuming they still own the HoR too) often to get things passed.

For the Rs, the Senate is just as important or more important to hold than keeping the POTUS.

posted by jmog

My biggest question, and it will be bigger question in the swing states, is how many "left leaning" voters "stayed home" in 2016 because EVERYONE was so SURE that Hillary was going to win in a landslide?

 

If there is even an appreciable amount of those voters that come out in 2020 it could swing it to the D candidate.

I don’t know; I think a ton of people came out last time to vote for the first woman president; that enthusiasm has faded.  And if Bernie gets screwed again, few of his supporters will show up at all.  As of today, it looks like a Trump landslide.

posted by Automatik

Tell us more. Where do you own property that will drop 20% due to who becomes president? 

Property values in SW Ohio are up between 15-25% in almost every area that is developed long the I-75 corridor.   Houses in my neighborhood sell in 2 or 3 days for well over what they were worth 2 years ago

The increase is due to what? And why will a Dem president result in a drop in value?

Property values are in a bubble in general, imo. That’s going to pop regardless of who gets elected. 

posted by Automatik

The increase is due to what? And why will a Dem president result in a drop in value?

1 – supply and demand

2 – consumer confidence

3 – historically strong employment and rising wages

4 – increased wealth

5 – renewed hope for the future

posted by QuakerOats

 

1 – supply and demand

 

2 – consumer confidence

 

3 – historically strong employment and rising wages

 

4 – increased wealth

 

5 – renewed hope for the future

no.. a bubble. 

And when it pops does everything you listed just go away or are suddenly not important anymore? We didn't learn shit from the last bubble.

posted by QuakerOats

 

1 – supply and demand

 

2 – consumer confidence

 

3 – historically strong employment and rising wages

 

4 – increased wealth

 

5 – renewed hope for the future

I'm looking for more specifics for that area.

My hometown area has been on the slide since the GWB area.  

posted by justincredible

Property values are in a bubble in general, imo. That’s going to pop regardless of who gets elected. 

I'm not sure about this.  It may seem like that after the rebound in 2010/2011, but that's because prices dropped a good bit below fair value in many areas.

To get a truer sense, you'd have to go back to what places were selling for around 2001, inflate at 2.5-3.0% per year, and then see what "fair value" is in 2020.

Looking at what my place sold for in 2008, it's now about 10% higher than that.  I haven't done the exercise above, but I'd guess my area is not in a bubble.

ok, looking at the Shiller Price index, you may have a point.  It shows a 120% average gain across the 20 biggest US cities since 2000.  That's a 4.0% annualized gain, which isn't that bad.  But if we use 3.0% historically, we get 22.2% overvalued.  By comparison, the index previously peaked back in April 2006 at 206 (over 23% annualized gain), which would have been more than 67% overvalued.  We could be in "little bubble" territory, which is more likely to deflate than pop.

All the left wing media outlets are talkoing "brokered" convention.  

Why does Bernie, who isnt even a Dem put up with this?  Or the opposite, why do the dems put up with an independent control their party?

Bernie should just go and run as an independent if they rig it again.

Oh and BTW........who are the VP picks for these guys?

My guess is that after super tuesday Bernie blood bath, the only way to get momentum is to name your ticket.

posted by Spock

Oh and BTW........who are the VP picks for these guys?

 

My guess is that after super tuesday Bernie blood bath, the only way to get momentum is to name your ticket.

 If one of them picks that idiot Abrams woman...

i was going to think that someone like Yang was bowing out to grab that VP pick but he is now working for some news outlet.  

Does anyone think Biden would take another VP bid?

posted by iclfan2

 If one of them picks that idiot Abrams woman...

Not if they actually want to win.

I think Mayor Pete makes the most sense as a VP candidate, but truthfully white/male/gay is 3 strikes right now.

Klobuchar, unfortunately, looks like a logical choice to moderate someone like crazy Bernie, especially in a brokered convention where her delegates could put him over the top.

Biden won't do it again, and Warren is probably too old and egotistical to be VP.  If someone were smart, they'd pick Tulsi Gabbard.  But I think Bloomberg will pick Booker.  I think Kamala is toxic, but she solves two of Bloomberg's problems (being sexist and racist).

Really interesting for a party that keeps saying race/gender/whatever shouldn't matter, that they keep making race/gender/whatever a "qualification".

^^^^^Pretty spot on about Tulsi.  I posted last year that I thought Pete and Tulsi could win.

If I were Bloomburg I would take Tulsi right now and ram down the moderate lane hard.  

The rest of them are attacking the others so hard that any VP pick isnt on stage right  now.

posted by Spock

If any of these fools win.....there goes 20% gains on my property value and retirement accounts.

CC encouraging everyone to vote D this year with this post!

It sure sounds like Biden is getting himself into trouble with this claim that he was arrested in South Africa while trying to reach Nelson Mandela in prison, a claim no one can verify.  

Biden is toast if he doesn’t win SC. It is clearly Bernie’s to lose, but the Dems still have time to sabotage him. Buttigieg might be the only other viable option besides Biden. 

posted by iclfan2

Biden is toast if he doesn’t win SC. It is clearly Bernie’s to lose, but the Dems still have time to sabotage him. Buttigieg might be the only other viable option besides Biden. 

I don't think Biden is a viable candidate at all. Even if he hadn't grossly overestimated his popularity prior to running, I think he'd be a sure loser. His time is past.