Betting Sites

I like that Poston number! Might jump on that as well. Phoenix and TPC correlate for some reason, and he kills TPC (relative to his career and talent).

posted by birddog23

My outright winners for this weekend WM Open. Hoping someone hits!

Young	+3000
Im	+2200
Kim	+2800
Morikawa	+2000
Finau	+1800
Homa	+2450

Where did you get +2000 for Morikawa?  Fanduel has him +1600

posted by QuakerOats

Where did you get +2000 for Morikawa?  Fanduel has him +1600

He’s dropped. Opened on Monday at +2500. I waited cause wanted to get my account up over $1k and regret it. Bit the bullet and still took him at +1600.

posted by QuakerOats

Where did you get +2000 for Morikawa?  Fanduel has him +1600

DK on Monday night. He was even higher Sunday and I missed out.

FanDuel has a boost right now for the WM Open….

JT, Spieth, and Morikawa all to make the cut at +130. 

Am I missing something here? Seems like a solid risk to me. 

Seems like a lock. I’ll put a little on that. 

My basketball bets have been shit for the last 3 days. 

Talk me into or out of this one. Why is it a lock or why does it suck?

posted by justincredible

My basketball bets have been shit for the last 3 days. 

Talk me into or out of this one. Why is it a lock or why does it suck?

Hield has burned me too much already in one month…lol

posted by birddog23

FanDuel has a boost right now for the WM Open….

JT, Spieth, and Morikawa all to make the cut at +130. 

Am I missing something here? Seems like a solid risk to me. 

The big thing to remember here is how much water this course has. That brings in CRAZY volatility over a 2 day miss/make cut. Either of them could be great, hit the water 2x on Friday and miss cut. But yes, if all 3 play well, they should all make cut. Their good is better than 80% of the fields very good. 

Jordan barely made the cut last year, but came in 4th the year before. Still seems like a worthy risk for $20.

posted by justincredible

Jordan barely made the cut last year, but came in 4th the year before. Still seems like a worthy risk for $20.

Yep. Plunked it in the water for a double on 17 in Round 1. 

Garland and Mitchell may be out. Props for the Cleveland/Detroit game have been pulled, but if they are, I don't care how high they set it, Rubio is getting my money on the O for assists. 

posted by birddog23

FanDuel has a boost right now for the WM Open….

JT, Spieth, and Morikawa all to make the cut at +130. 

Am I missing something here? Seems like a solid risk to me. 

saw that ..................Spieth could be the weak link, up and down

Added:

Morikawa/Matsuyama parlay Top20; +305

Horschel/Homa/Bradley parlay Top20; +2458

Leader after Round 1:  Matsuyama, Im, Theegala, Hoge, Finau

Win:  Morikawa

Rubio props never got posted. But Neto did. It was 3.5 assists. LOL. Hope you all tailed that advice, he has 5 already. 6 minutes to go in the 1st half.

I went with the under on the total score of that game at 221 when Garland/Mitchell missed shootaround this morning and they were announced questionable. They’re at 113 with six minutes left in third. Parlayed that with moneyline on Toronto, Sacramento, and Utah. 

posted by friendfromlowry

I went with the under on the total score of that game at 221 when Garland/Mitchell missed shootaround this morning and they were announced questionable. They’re at 113 with six minutes left in third. Parlayed that with moneyline on Toronto, Sacramento, and Utah. 

Serious question here. Why take that extremely +EV move, beating the books to the adjustment on the total, and turn it into a massive -EV move of a parlay? 

I get sucked into parlays as well, not saying to not play them. But why not just put down a larger amount on the good value UNDER bet you got? Those are the rare occassions to hammer a book being slow, but parlaying it with 3 other teams to win in the NBA (when anyone can lose) makes it an unlikely win.

Because I’m stupid. 

posted by friendfromlowry

Because I’m stupid. 

I've learned that if you find an edge, to just hammer it with whatever you feel comfortable with. In the long run, those small advantages pay off, even if you lose the given one. 

Similar to those boosts they offer. When it is a 1 or 2 leg, I always put the max (LBJ getting 30+ last night). Getting even odds when the regular is much lower (last night it was -193) is massive win. When they offer the boosts that are parlays, and they are being boosted to like +175 or more up from a -110ish, thats when to pause and say "I dunno, seems like a trap because -110 is essentially a coin flip and juicing it is just getting more people to bet on an outcome that is 50/50 and could slide into the books favor"

posted by Laley23

I've learned that if you find an edge, to just hammer it with whatever you feel comfortable with. In the long run, those small advantages pay off, even if you lose the given one. 

Similar to those boosts they offer. When it is a 1 or 2 leg, I always put the max (LBJ getting 30+ last night). Getting even odds when the regular is much lower (last night it was -193) is massive win. When they offer the boosts that are parlays, and they are being boosted to like +175 or more up from a -110ish, thats when to pause and say "I dunno, seems like a trap because -110 is essentially a coin flip and juicing it is just getting more people to bet on an outcome that is 50/50 and could slide into the books favor"

That makes sense. I guess my rationale is if i'm going to be burned, have it be on a parlay that should hit, bet low money with 3-4x return. I'm not beating myself up over that parlay missing. But I would be pissed if I had bet $20 or whatever I would have needed to on just the Cavs/Pistons for the same return then a couple bums go off and they end up hitting the total over. Point is, I dont know that there's anything anymore I feel confident in betting much money on. But you've pointed out some cant miss player props. 

If it helps, I took your advice with the San Diego St - Utah State college game. The total over was 140ish I think. I noticed through the first two minutes neither team had scored but they hadnt adjusted the line yet so I went on the under which ended up winning comfortably. Between that and the under on the Mavs -  Clippers game I came up even on the night. 

Thinking about going with the under on Phoenix - Atlanta tonight which is currently at 229. Phoenix just traded away half their team and Booker is (as of now) listed as out.