NCAA Tournament thread

posted by sportchampps

I don’t understand how many teams keep jacking threes when down only 2

I haven’t done or seen the math. But I gotta believe the odds of winning are drastically higher taking a 3 vs a 2.

posted by Ironman92

The past 5-6 years I’ve drifted away from watching much college basketball...I need to get back to it some next season. I’ve enjoyed the play this tournament.

Watched more this year than in maybe a decade combined.

I really fell off the college hoops game when Bobby Knight got out of coaching.

As for teams jacking threes when down two.....with how the game being so much 3ball these days, and defenses expecting it, I think more could be successful driving to the hoop.

Goal is to win, but also to not lose. If you have a better shot at a 2 to tie and send it to OT, I would do so.

Driving to the hoop also makes you rely on the ref calling a foul, which didn’t work out for the Baylor women’s team the other night. 

posted by friendfromlowry

Driving to the hoop also makes you rely on the ref calling a foul, which didn’t work out for the Baylor women’s team the other night. 

I dont think waiting and just firing a 3 is the way to go, which is what most teams do now. 

But yeah, just because a team goes for the win doesnt mean its bad. The odds of getting a call driving are slim, but the odds of getting fouled and missing because of the foul rise. A good player probably shoots 55% on shots near the rim, and game on the line that probably drops below 50%. Say they are a 38% 3pt shooter, which drops to around 35% game on line. But, thats still 35% chance at a win versus a ~45% chance at OT, and then multiply that by (in theory a 50/50 shot in the OT) gets you around a 23% chance at the win. 

The 3 makes sense, even if those are rough numbers. The problem is the shots the teams take. You have to run an offensive set if you have time, not stall with it. Get the defense moving, and try and hit a shooter in rhythym. 

posted by Laley23

I haven’t done or seen the math. But I gotta believe the odds of winning are drastically higher taking a 3 vs a 2.

Your probably right but if you go for the three dont you think it would be better to do it with a couple seconds left for the chance at an offensive rebound and put back to tie in case of a miss. If you make it you would be up one with 2 seconds remaining I like those odds

posted by sportchampps

Your probably right but if you go for the three dont you think it would be better to do it with a couple seconds left for the chance at an offensive rebound and put back to tie in case of a miss. If you make it you would be up one with 2 seconds remaining I like those odds

Absolutely. They go about the shot completely wrong in most cases. I just think going for the win isn’t inherently a bad play. 

posted by Laley23

I dont think waiting and just firing a 3 is the way to go, which is what most teams do now. 

But yeah, just because a team goes for the win doesnt mean its bad. The odds of getting a call driving are slim, but the odds of getting fouled and missing because of the foul rise. A good player probably shoots 55% on shots near the rim, and game on the line that probably drops below 50%. Say they are a 38% 3pt shooter, which drops to around 35% game on line. But, thats still 35% chance at a win versus a ~45% chance at OT, and then multiply that by (in theory a 50/50 shot in the OT) gets you around a 23% chance at the win. 

The 3 makes sense, even if those are rough numbers. The problem is the shots the teams take. You have to run an offensive set if you have time, not stall with it. Get the defense moving, and try and hit a shooter in rhythym. 

Yeah, with the shots that teams usually take, where they hold onto the ball in isolation and then jack up a step-back three while covered, probably turns that 35% to about 5% at best. To use Ohio State as an example, if everyone knows Washington is the guy who's going to shoot in that situation and he's holding onto the ball for 80% of the shot clock, the defense isn't exactly going to have to be 100% lock-down on everyone to get a stop, barring that 5% chance that an NBA-range, fall-away, contested three-point attempt actually goes in.

Coach Knight had always said he preferred to not call a TO late on the final possession as he believes he prepared his offense to score better than what the other team prepared their defense to stop them in a clutch moment.

With as much time as the put in practice, I am unsure why they always need to stop the action, set up some play all the while the defense is setting up their's.

Plan for this shit all season, run it like in football and two min drills in practice and at any given time in practice call for a last second shot with less than ten and go at it.

Will take 90 to beat Gonzaga.....UCLA in that area the first half. Played great. They might still lose by 15 but they’ve been big all tournament and one of top 3 teams.

posted by Ironman92

Will take 90 to beat Gonzaga.....UCLA in that area the first half. Played great. They might still lose by 15 but they’ve been big all tournament and one of top 3 teams.

If they could get a few calls to go their way, they might win. 

Timme taking over OT

Incredible offensive execution in this game.

Dagger

Top 5 NCAA Tournament game ever

That was an incredible game. I don’t like the bank shot to win but the fast paced elevated runner from 30....he’ll of a game. Lord

👏👏👏

Crazy ending. Let's just hope Baylor wins by 30 on Monday. 

posted by superman

Crazy ending. Let's just hope Baylor wins by 30 on Monday. 

Best game of my lifetime. Followed closely by UNC/Nova.

And no. Go Zags.

posted by Laley23

Best game of my lifetime. Followed closely by UNC/Nova.

And no. Go Zags.

Even though it would take away the "last undefeated team" title from IU? 

posted by superman

Even though it would take away the "last undefeated team" title from IU? 

I honestly couldn't care less about that. This Gonzaga team is as close to perfection on offense as you can get, and I want them to win it all. So fun to watch.

Plus, I hate Scott Drew.

It should be a really good game. 

I want Mark Few to get his first title.  And screw Baylor (the institution) also.