Pretty clear this is the most likely scenario:
- Wagner Group coup fails, leadership eliminated, widespread chaos.
- Russia civil unrest, post-coup military aggression escalates.
- International sanctions intensify, Russia's economy crippled.
- Eurozone in chaos, Ukraine…— Sterling Crispin 🕊️ (@sterlingcrispin) June 24, 2023
Here’s the thing about Russia…
There’s always someone worse waiting in the wings.
Gotta be wild to hear/see these events unfolding if you're Ukrainian.
Supposedly these rebels are around 200 miles south of Moscow heading north. They have tanks and I have seen several videos of Russian government aircraft being shot down inside Russia. There is power behind this. This is an example of an actual insurrection. Not what we were told was one on 1/6.
posted by MontyBrunswickGotta be wild to hear/see these events unfolding if you're Ukrainian.
Also interesting to see the reaction of Russian civilians in the path of this panicking all while they turned a blind eye to what was happening to civilians next door for over a year.
Man, these dudes are bad news. They are actually a private army (imagine having your own private army 25,000 strong!) made up of about 10k mercs and 20k PRISONERS. They are frequently accused of war crimes, but are technically not state forces.
So while everyone is cheering a coup attempt, these probably aren't the guys you want leading it.
posted by majorsparkThis is an example of an actual insurrection. Not what we were told was one on 1/6.
Liberals: "Your guns are no good against tanks"
also liberals: "OMG they almost overthrew the govt with just a couple of sign posts!!!!"
The Russians used these shitbags to do their dirty work around the world for years claiming no affiliation. Now its biting them in the ass.
Sounds like a deal got struck and they're turning around. Weird.
I listened to Putin's speech he vowed their punishment for armed rebellion. If this is true no way Putin holds power after this. This Prigozhin guy has the power and he is ruthless. This is the likely the worst case scenario a mostly bloodless coup. The hope for some was Russia would eat their own and the killing of others would be stopped.
Already over?
posted by gutLiberals: "Your guns are no good against tanks"
also liberals: "OMG they almost overthrew the govt with just a couple of sign posts!!!!"
Also liberals: Resistance is futile the government has nukes.
At this point I am not buying the narrative. This shitbag Prigozhin exiled to Belarus and his fighters instantly signing contracts with the Russian armed forces. None of the videos I saw support this. This smells to me like a successful coup smoothed over.
posted by MontyBrunswickSounds like a deal got struck and they're turning around. Weird.
In Soviet Russia....
Nothing in Russia will ever make sense. Who the hell knows what’s happened here - except there are multiple bad dudes fighting it out. No wonder everyone is an alcoholic and dies by 55.
One thing everyone knows for sure is whatever the Russians are saying is not the truth. So we work up from that. The Russian government is an extremely corrupt ruled by thugs institution. You can not show weakness.
What is being reported (not by Russia) is around 39 Russian airmen lost their lives. Around 6 helicopters and at least one plane. About a dozen trained pilots and also a high ranking general in the command and control plane. Putin does not project power letting his Belarusian poodle solve his problem. The truth is what we all saw with our own eyes. A successful coup. Its no different than our eyes seeing a major war in Europe and being told to this day by the Russians its just a "special military operation".
posted by majorsparkOne thing everyone knows for sure is whatever the Russians are saying is not the truth. So we work up from that.
Throughout there has also been plenty of propaganda flowing the other direction. Remember all the reports of Putin's failing health?
The two theories that make the most sense to me are 1) false flag (not sure how this makes sense, but it explains a lot) or 2) he didn't have the support he needed to win, and so he hit the eject button.
In other words, maybe not a coup at all, but definitely not a successful coup. I've never seen a coup where the head of the insurgency self-exiles while the current leader retains power.
posted by gutThroughout there has also been plenty of propaganda flowing the other direction. Remember all the reports of Putin's failing health?
The two theories that make the most sense to me are 1) false flag (not sure how this makes sense, but it explains a lot) or 2) he didn't have the support he needed to win, and so he hit the eject button.
In other words, maybe not a coup at all, but definitely not a successful coup. I've never seen a coup where the head of the insurgency self-exiles while the current leader retains power.
Maybe the Kremlin paid the Wagner guy to go away. I could buy that.
