posted by Devils AdvocateYou mean the Puerto Rico trash sign?
That's funny because the Lib's are triggered over it, and making it a talking point, because they don't have anything positive to say about Harris. Meanwhile, Puerto Ricans are pretty tough people and wouldn't make a huge issue of it like the Liberal snowflakes.
posted by Laley23I’ve never thought this will be close, and I continue to not think it will be close. Florida flips, the rest of the country stays the course. NC I would’ve had blue, but I think the hurricane will keep it red — due to the narrative.
I mean this literally - one of the worst predictions I've seen so far. Was this satire?
posted by Trueblue23I mean this literally - one of the worst predictions I've seen so far. Was this satire?
I'm expecting this to be a blowout either way in the EC. Maybe not the popular vote.
posted by Trueblue23I mean this literally - one of the worst predictions I've seen so far. Was this satire?
No. And I may revise and give Harris NC or AZ.
posted by Laley23No. And I may revise and give Harris NC or AZ.
I’ll ask you this….does your work keep you in the bigger cities the vast majority of the time? I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone else with such comfortable forecasts for Harris. Trying to get a feel for your thought.
posted by Ironman92I’ll ask you this….does your work keep you in the bigger cities the vast majority of the time? I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone else with such comfortable forecasts for Harris. Trying to get a feel for your thought.
This is not only the 3rd election for President in a row for Trump, it’s also the 3rd in a row where I predict the polls to be way off.
Trump was vastly underrated in 2016. Trump was slightly underrated in 2020. Trump will be (at minimum) slightly overrated in 2024. That is just the nature of polls.
Trump was elected in 2016. He promptly lost control of Congress in 2018. He then lost control of the WH in 2020. Then the “red wave” didn’t happen at all in 2022 — and that is almost always a flip of house or senate to the party not in control.
I also don’t think women are being accurately polled at all.
I don’t think Georgia will flip back, and I think NC continues to get younger and more urban, so I could see it flipping this year.
My biggest leap is Florida. I’m just looking at “peripherals” here. Rick Scott continues to campaign very hard and has poured money into his campaign. Early voting is trending towards Harris is places that it didn’t for Biden on certain metrics. Etc.
But overall, I think it was pretty clear the country was done with Trump — rather, democrats decided to really get out and vote — since 2018. Obviously 2018 was senate/house, but if we count that, Trump has lost pretty big in 2 straight elections (coupled with republicans showing poor in 2022 when that’s usually the out of control parties time to shine) and I see no reason to believe this year will be any different.
posted by Laley23This is not only the 3rd election for President in a row for Trump, it’s also the 3rd in a row where I predict the polls to be way off.
Trump was vastly underrated in 2016. Trump was slightly underrated in 2020. Trump will be (at minimum) slightly overrated in 2024. That is just the nature of polls.
Trump was elected in 2016. He promptly lost control of Congress in 2018. He then lost control of the WH in 2020. Then the “red wave” didn’t happen at all in 2022 — and that is almost always a flip of house or senate to the party not in control.
I also don’t think women are being accurately polled at all.
I don’t think Georgia will flip back, and I think NC continues to get younger and more urban, so I could see it flipping this year.
My biggest leap is Florida. I’m just looking at “peripherals” here. Rick Scott continues to campaign very hard and has poured money into his campaign. Early voting is trending towards Harris is places that it didn’t for Biden on certain metrics. Etc.
But overall, I think it was pretty clear the country was done with Trump — rather, democrats decided to really get out and vote — since 2018. Obviously 2018 was senate/house, but if we count that, Trump has lost pretty big in 2 straight elections (coupled with republicans showing poor in 2022 when that’s usually the out of control parties time to shine) and I see no reason to believe this year will be any different.
Thanks for the details. I won’t argue, or honestly can’t argue any…..but I feel you are a bit off. We’ll see
I have said all along that I believe the angry Dems will decently show up to vote more than the angry right side. I feel a much larger % of dem voters will show vs the % of republican…but also feels like that may be less of a thing here in the last few weeks.
Well, I know for a fact that my write-in will win 0 of the states!
sounds like NC is safely Harris' at this point. If that happens Trump loses. I stand by my original map and flipping NC to her flips my numbers, she wins.
posted by j_crazysounds like NC is safely Harris' at this point. If that happens Trump loses. I stand by my original map and flipping NC to her flips my numbers, she wins.
How so? I know polling sucks, but averages of polling suck less...
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/north-carolina/trump-vs-harris
posted by jmogHow so? I know polling sucks, but averages of polling suck less...
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/north-carolina/trump-vs-harris
Was kind of wondering that myself because unless something has changed in the last 3-4 hours I've heard mostly positive about Trump in NC.
NC is weird. They’ll vote for Trump but then elect a lib governor. Who will never clean up Charlotte, the only real city they have.
Kamala just stopped a $1 million adflow from NC.
Edit to add:
Make that almost 3mil
posted by iclfan2NC is weird. They’ll vote for Trump but then elect a lib governor. Who will never clean up Charlotte, the only real city they have.
Meck County resident here - we're doing alright.
I'm hoping this will show up clear enough to see it. Published two days ago. It has since increased.
My final map. You all think I’m crazy, but I’m ignoring polls and going with feel, underlying metrics/behavior, and actions taken at the end of the campaigns. Florida/Ohio/Iowa are toss-ups, imo.
LOL...Florida and Ohio are blowouts.
posted by Laley23
My final map. You all think I’m crazy, but I’m ignoring polls and going with feel, underlying metrics/behavior, and actions taken at the end of the campaigns. Florida/Ohio/Iowa are toss-ups, imo.
Am I missing the total numbers? Not interested in adding them up
posted by Laley23
My final map. You all think I’m crazy, but I’m ignoring polls and going with feel, underlying metrics/behavior, and actions taken at the end of the campaigns. Florida/Ohio/Iowa are toss-ups, imo.
Just trying to figure out if the crack you're smoking is good or bad
posted by Trueblue23Just trying to figure out if the crack you're smoking is good or bad
He may not be far off, though. There's a lot of single issue women voters out there.
