Bitcoin

posted by gut

Which of my posts aren't talking about Bitcoin? 

Do you know what the word "only" means?

I was giving you shit because you were talking about other crypto.

posted by justincredible

Gut doesn't see value in a completely decentralized money that governments cannot manipulate. The hardest money the world has ever seen. Money that cannot be inflated, counterfeited, handed out to cronies. Money that is 100% auditable by anyone in the world running a node. You're right, I'm sure it's nothing and will fail in the end.

Wrong.  100% wrong.  You are completely disillusioned about Bitcoin and crypto in general.  And LMFAO if you think the crypto markets aren't highly manipulated.

Bitcoin is just one of dozens of competing cryptos, with dozens more to come from institutions like Facebook, JPM, China, etc...I've never said crypto doesn't have value, just that picking the winner is pure speculation.  And all your current choices could be completely worthless in 5-10 years.

Lead with that, and drop the pretense that Bitcoin has a defensible market position because it doesn't.

posted by justincredible

Do you know what the word "only" means?

I was giving you shit because you were talking about other crypto.

You can't talk about investing in Bitcoin without talking about the crypto market.  ALWAYS know the market you're investing in.

You make Bitcoin sound dreamy, just dreamy.  But people thinking about investing their money need to understand the risks that you aren't mentioning.

Nothing I said was wrong. While markets may be manipulated to some extent, my reference was to the money supply itself. No one can fuck with the monetary policy. It cannot be manipulated. With that clarification, tell me what I said wrong? Tell me what I stated in the post you quoted is not true?

posted by gut

You can't talk about investing in Bitcoin without talking about the crypto market.  ALWAYS know the market you're investing in.

You make Bitcoin sound dreamy, just dreamy.  But people thinking about investing their money need to understand the risks that you aren't mentioning.

I'm not recommending that anyone buy it. I'm just giving the reasons why I do.

Of course it's a risk. Like I said, I'm making a bet. Do not buy bitcoin unless you understand the risks. Do not buy other crypto, period.

posted by gut

You can't talk about investing in Bitcoin without talking about the crypto market.  ALWAYS know the market you're investing in.

You make Bitcoin sound dreamy, just dreamy.  But people thinking about investing their money need to understand the risks that you aren't mentioning.

I'm not investing. I will never exchange any bitcoin I own for US dollars. As such, nothing I say in this thread should be considered investment advice.

posted by justincredible

I didn't buy anything, just transferred to a different address I control. There are plenty of places that accept bitcoin for goods and services, I'm just not interested in spending any at this point. It's an accumulation game for me at this point. Another reason to not spend is that it triggers a taxable event because the US government sucks and classifies it as property.

That said, long-term holding IS a real use. I believe that bitcoin becomes the word reserve currency within a decade or so. I do not have a great outlook for the future of humanity if bitcoin doesn't win. Digital currency is inevitable, and the State controlling it will be an authoritarian nightmare. 

A scarce, fully auditable, digitally native currency with a monetary policy set in stone that cannot be censored or taken from you sounds a lot better than a central bank digital currency that can be taken from your wallet without your consent, can be blocked from being spent anywhere they decide, can be set to expire after a certain date, etc.

I don't disagree, but what point in World History can you point to someone with ALL THE POWER quietly bowing down to an upstart and letting that become the new de-facto power? I don't think bitcoin has any chance of becoming the world standard unless it allows a central bank to take control of it. If that doesn't happen, I see the US creating an all electric dollar much like the CCP has begun doing with the Yuan. 

Speaking to your timeline, I have no faith that the US will be at a point where they can do any of this within 10 years. There are places I've lived, including where I grew up, that have 6 homes on a 19 mile stretch of dirt road with 15 total people living in them. None of those homes have 4G cell service, no hardwired broadband service, and have enough tree coverage that satellite internet service that is offered will not penetrate. No company is going to readily make an investment in that area to get those people reliable internet to allow them a chance to use an all electric currency. History has also proven that the government (Federal/State/Local, outside of the township which has no power) doesn't really care about making these people's lives better (there is a washed out section of the dirt road that has been impossible to pass since 2001 and the army corp of engineers won't let any work be done on it because of a disturbace to some rare salamander living in the spring that caused the slip). For people like this, living at 1/2 the poverty income threshold in many cases, there is no access to these currencies and as fucked as our government is it will not ditch the paper currency that these people and I'm sure a million others can't live without.

It won't be quiet, bitcoin is being attacked like crazy in the media as we speak. The amount of nonsense in the news, Elon Musk, etc. These are, imo, coordinated attacks by governments to keep the price down and scare people away for the short term. That said, I believe that governments are already quietly accumulating and we'll see a smaller government announce it as their reserve currency within a couple years. The US itself is sitting on at least 70k bitcoin they've had for years. 

But at no point in human history has humanity had a tool like bitcoin, which doesn't need anyone's permission to operate. It's fully opt-in and there isn't really much any single government can do to stop it, aside from shutting down the internet itself. Even then, there are ways to interact with the network by satellite. 

Given your hesitance I would recommend not buying any, or at the very least not buying very much. There is an absolutely massive rabbit hole to jump down to learn about bitcoin and the implications it has for the future. It took me a good year of research (books, youtube, etc) before it all started to click for me. 

Like I've said numerous times, I'm making a big bet on humanity. I think bitcoin is the most important invention the world has ever seen and I'd like to think we will take advantage of it to free ourselves from the inevitable shackles of digital totalitarianism that is coming our way if we don't.

Fix the money, fix the world. 

And yes, I know...

posted by justincredible

It won't be quiet, bitcoin is being attacked like crazy in the media as we speak. The amount of nonsense in the news, Elon Musk, etc. These are, imo, coordinated attacks by governments to keep the price down and scare people away for the short term. That said, I believe that governments are already quietly accumulating and we'll see a smaller government announce it as their reserve currency within a couple years. The US itself is sitting on at least 70k bitcoin they've had for years. 

But at no point in human history has humanity had a tool like bitcoin, which doesn't need anyone's permission to operate. It's fully opt-in and there isn't really much any single government can do to stop it, aside from shutting down the internet itself. Even then, there are ways to interact with the network by satellite. 

Given your hesitance I would recommend not buying any, or at the very least not buying very much. There is an absolutely massive rabbit hole to jump down to learn about bitcoin and the implications it has for the future. It took me a good year of research (books, youtube, etc) before it all started to click for me. 

Like I've said numerous times, I'm making a big bet on humanity. I think bitcoin is the most important invention the world has ever seen and I'd like to think we will take advantage of it to free ourselves from the inevitable shackles of digital totalitarianism that is coming our way if we don't.

Fix the money, fix the world. 

I don't want to make it seem like you're not right. All the things you've said make sense, and would lend itself to a very agreeable outcome, but I don't see the same access to this as we currently have, maybe to my detriment. It certainly has been proven that our current monetary system has never relied on equal access to it, so in many ways Bitcoin follows that trend for the reasons I laid out above. 

My hesitance is on how it'll ever be adopted into governments that can't control their spending. Issuing new dollars and deflating the value of the outstanding debt is the only thing keeping our system running at it's current pace (INSANE to say). But maybe that's where I'm not understanding how the limited supply of bitcoin works in the event that a government like the US keeps outspending their GDP. The taxing of the current outstanding/unrealized gains on bitcoin is another sticking point for me. They damn sure want those capital gains that are outstanding and if they incorporate bitcoin into the fold and treat it as currency I believe they lose that ability. But hell I don't know what I'm talking about, they'll likely nationalize our 401k's to get that trillion and then the bitcoin gains won't matter so much... I'm very pessimistic about our future (see 1/6/2021, CHAZ, etc.)

Hey, I'm an absolute dumbass (12 years of proof right here on this site) so I'm probably not right. 

I was very pessimistic about the future. Bitcoin changed that for me. Without hope for the future, what's the point? 

Video #2 from Hello Bitcoin.

GUT'S CRYIN - I'M BUYIN!

posted by Automatik

GUT'S CRYIN - I'M BUYIN!

posted by justincredible

It won't be quiet, bitcoin is being attacked like crazy in the media as we speak. The amount of nonsense in the news, Elon Musk, etc. These are, imo, coordinated attacks by governments to keep the price down and scare people away for the short term. That said, I believe that governments are already quietly accumulating and we'll see a smaller government announce it as their reserve currency within a couple years. The US itself is sitting on at least 70k bitcoin they've had for years. 

But at no point in human history has humanity had a tool like bitcoin, which doesn't need anyone's permission to operate. It's fully opt-in and there isn't really much any single government can do to stop it, aside from shutting down the internet itself. Even then, there are ways to interact with the network by satellite. 

Given your hesitance I would recommend not buying any, or at the very least not buying very much. There is an absolutely massive rabbit hole to jump down to learn about bitcoin and the implications it has for the future. It took me a good year of research (books, youtube, etc) before it all started to click for me. 

Like I've said numerous times, I'm making a big bet on humanity. I think bitcoin is the most important invention the world has ever seen and I'd like to think we will take advantage of it to free ourselves from the inevitable shackles of digital totalitarianism that is coming our way if we don't.

Fix the money, fix the world. 

I do not think you are wrong as I think some sort of crypto currency will be influential in the global market place. But, it would take a lot of upheaval for it to replace the dollar as the reserve currency for countries. Granted the current world economic system is only 76 years old, but the entire field of macro economic thinking and policy would have to change for crypto to replace the dollar, let alone other hard currencies. 

There is also the logistics of crypto replacing cash currency. You have to make it accessible to everyone in a country...that even means in far flung places where there is little to no internet or cell service. There are places here in the US, hell here in Ohio, where there is little to no internet, let alone cell service. Having cold hard cash is still easier. 

I think you're looking at how things are today and expecting them to be the same in a decade. 

posted by justincredible

I think you're looking at how things are today and expecting them to be the same in a decade. 

Perhaps, I give you that. I am not forecasting a global changing of the guard in terms of macro economics or economic public policy. I agree though, crypto in some form is here to stay and will be a player in the future. 

https://whatismoneypodcast.com/episodes/the-booth-series-episode-1-inflation-opposes-innovation

This is the first in a series of discussions that I believe paints a good picture of why the macro landscape has to change. As technology advances exponentially, driving costs down, an inflationary monetary policy that requires constant growth will always lead to the concentration of wealth and power to a small few.

I haven't finished the book these discussions were based on, but should finish it this weekend.

Bitcoin is legal tender in El Salvador.