Scarlet_Buckeye;867288 wrote:I have the #1 overall pick this season in a 2-man keeper league. The top available RBs are Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, and LeSean McCoy. I'm not quite sure who to take - Foster or Charles. It seems like Foster is ranked ahead of Charles on almost every board, but I love Charles' 6.4 (regular season) and 9.1 (post season) AVG yards per carry.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs (No. 2 RB overall): Again, an obvious name and first-rounder, but including him because I have him as my No. 2 running back, behind only Adrian Peterson. It's not just the two first names that are a crowd-pleaser, it's also the fact that he's probably the most talented running back, skill-wise, in the NFL. The argument against Charles can be boiled down to two words: Thomas Jones. Over the first eight games of last year, Jones had 141 offensive touches to Charles' 134. Jones averaged 4.2 yards per carry and Charles averaged 6.4. Now, over the second eight games of the year, Jones had 118 touches to Charles's 141. Charles once again averaged 6.4 yards per carry. Jones went down to 3.0.

That's a lot of math to tell you that Jones wore down toward the end of last year and is old and that I expect more of a workload for Charles this year. Remember, no team ran more than the Chiefs last season, and if Jones gets, say, 60 fewer carries this year, insane amounts of fantasy goodness are ready to happen. Remember, dude was the third-best fantasy running back last year yet had only five rushing touchdowns. I still think Charles gets vultured a decent amount (Jones? Le'Ron McClain, maybe?), which keeps him behind AP, but his yardage totals, talent and long TDs will result in him being the second-best fantasy running back this year.

Arian Foster, RB, Texans (No. 2 overall, No. 5 overall): Look, he's a stud. I loved him for two years, well before it was cool. I have him ranked fifth overall. But he's currently going second overall, and that's significant in the first round. And depending on how this hamstring issue plays out, I might move Ray Rice ahead of him as well. Because, you see, Rice has Vonta Leach blocking for him now, and Foster has converted tight end James Casey currently atop the Texans fullback depth chart. Yes, the team signed Lawrence Vickers, but Vickers isn't Leach, who is widely regarded as one of -- if not the -- best blocking backs in the league. How important in Leach? Well, I got this email recently that I thought described it better than I could (I had to edit for length &#8230

Rex Hackbarth (Towson, Md.): Statistical evidence why Arian Foster will have a significant drop off this year. His fullback last year, Vonta Leach, is considered to be the best fullback in the game rated by the players. Remember Lorenzo Neal? He was considered pretty much the best as fullback in the game as well. Look at LT's stats before and after Neal. When Neal joined the chargers in 2003, LT jumped to 5.3 yards per carry. However, the first year Lorenzo Neal left was 2008, and coincidentally LT's YPC dropped from 4.7 to 3.8, the lowest of his career by far. Huge drop-off after the star fullback left. I feel the exact same could happen to Arian Foster so there is no way I will draft him. Feel free to use these stats. If you do, just give me a shout out in your column because I don't listen to the podcast and I apologize.

Back to me, and no need to apologize, Rex. We don't care if you listen; just download! We only care about clicks. Now, I don't just print random emails, so I sent this off to ESPN Stats & Information and they came back with this:

The numbers in here are accurate. Tomlinson averaged 4.7 yards per rush from 2003-07 when Lorenzo Neal was on the team. He averaged 3.8 and 3.3 yards per rush in his final two years in San Diego, without Neal at fullback. To go a little deeper, in the games with Neal, Tomlinson averaged 4.65 yards per rush. In his entire career in San Diego, Tomlinson averaged 4.0 yards/rush in games where Neal wasn't the fullback.

If you read my Draft Day Manifesto, you know that only five running backs in the past 20 years have had 18 or more rushing touchdowns and then followed it up with a season of 18 or more touchdowns. Five running backs (though some of them did it more than once). I love Foster. Truly. But not at No. 2.

BR1986FB;867383 wrote:I'd argue that Vickers is/will be just as effective.

hoops23;867589 wrote:Yeah, not sure what the hell Matthew Berry is talking about regarding Vickers.

Commander of Awesome;867607 wrote:lolfail on Berry. Foster is getting the to run behind the best FB in the game since Lorenzo Neal.