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thavoice
Posts: 14,376
May 2, 2014 10:51am
Do you mean his bust that will be in the HoF in about 20 years?Classyposter58;1611900 wrote:Does anyone else on here think Clowney is going to be a huge bust?
WIll he live up to the hype?
Doubt it.
Will he be a bust?
Doubt it.
Depends on what he ends up being. OLB or a DE? OLB he will be asked to drop more in coverage whereas a DE he would rush the passer more.
I think he has the tools to be more of a OLB in a 3-4 and be able to rush the passer more than in the 4-3. They may want him to get bigger to be an NFL DE, which would hurt his quickness/speed.
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queencitybuckeye
Posts: 7,117
May 2, 2014 10:54am
Not unless you put the expectation level at something absurd like saying "the overall #1 pick should be a first ballot HOF type of player".Classyposter58;1611900 wrote:Does anyone else on here think Clowney is going to be a huge bust?
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thavoice
Posts: 14,376
May 2, 2014 10:58am
Since 1970, 6 overall #1's have made it to the HoF, and just 13 total.queencitybuckeye;1611928 wrote:Not unless you put the expectation level at something absurd like saying "the overall #1 pick should be a first ballot HOF type of player".
We can add in Peyton as one of them as well. I dont know......will Orlando Pace make it?
Mulva
Posts: 13,650
May 2, 2014 11:41am
Would depend on the QB.like_that;1611910 wrote:We take robinson at 4 and a QB at 26, I am willing to bet we will all be happy in a couple years with the 2014 draft.
If they get that right, assuming they take one, the draft is pretty much a success no matter what else they do.
Mulva
Posts: 13,650
May 2, 2014 11:43am
thavoice;1611930 wrote:Since 1970, 6 overall #1's have made it to the HoF, and just 13 total.
We can add in Peyton as one of them as well. I dont know......will Orlando Pace make it?
Pace is a lock.
like_that
Posts: 26,625
May 2, 2014 12:04pm
Easily.Mulva;1611954 wrote:Pace is a lock.
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thavoice
Posts: 14,376
May 2, 2014 12:05pm
Figured as much. Could not remember when he retired.Mulva;1611954 wrote:Pace is a lock.
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Al Bundy
Posts: 4,180
May 2, 2014 1:00pm
It's interesting that as combines and other methods have become more popular ways to evaluate potential, the selection process at #1 has actually become worse. Too often the questions of "can the kid play football?" and "is the kid a winner?" are overlooked because someone can run 40 yd in a straight line faster (something that very rarely happens in football)thavoice;1611930 wrote:Since 1970, 6 overall #1's have made it to the HoF, and just 13 total.
We can add in Peyton as one of them as well. I dont know......will Orlando Pace make it?
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queencitybuckeye
Posts: 7,117
May 2, 2014 1:07pm
This. I've never heard someone calling a game say, "Well, if he were 6'2" instead of 6'1 3/4, he would have made that play and saved the game".Al Bundy;1611985 wrote:It's interesting that as combines and other methods have become more popular ways to evaluate potential, the selection process at #1 has actually become worse. Too often the questions of "can the kid play football?" and "is the kid a winner?" are overlooked because someone can run 40 yd in a straight line faster (something that very rarely happens in football)
shook_17
Posts: 3,023
May 2, 2014 1:13pm
THISlike_that;1611910 wrote:We take robinson at 4 and a QB at 26, I am willing to bet we will all be happy in a couple years with the 2014 draft.
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thavoice
Posts: 14,376
May 2, 2014 1:26pm
Lets check that out: I know PBs may not be the best guide, but is at least something to look at.Al Bundy;1611985 wrote:It's interesting that as combines and other methods have become more popular ways to evaluate potential, the selection process at #1 has actually become worse. Too often the questions of "can the kid play football?" and "is the kid a winner?" are overlooked because someone can run 40 yd in a straight line faster (something that very rarely happens in football)
1990's top picks.
27 combined Pro Bowls by 90's top picks. 5 failed to make one pro bowl.
1980's top picks.:
40 combined prob bowls. 2 failed to make one.
1970's top picks
19 combined prob bowls. 5 failed to make one.
2000-2009 top picks
17 combined pro bowls and 4 failed to make one. I think Stafford has a chance to make one yet making it down to 3 failed to make it and the overall # cannot be valued quite yet.
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queencitybuckeye
Posts: 7,117
May 2, 2014 1:30pm
At the very least, it's hard to make a case for the "more is better" approach to talent evaluation.
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thavoice
Posts: 14,376
May 2, 2014 1:36pm
To a point I think teams go out of the way to find reasons talk themselves out of guys when they get to all these various ways to evaluate talent. Guys are preparing for the combines and those drills alot more, script out and work like crazy for their pro days and their agents/handlers are "teaching to the tests" taht they know owners/teams are going to look for.queencitybuckeye;1611996 wrote:At the very least, it's hard to make a case for the "more is better" approach to talent evaluation.
Evaluating talent in all these scripted ways is like valuing a woman's true beauty after she is all done up and airbrushed instead of how they look when the roll outta bed in the morning.
You may not get a true picture.
I still think the #1 way is to view game tape, and use the rest to supplement it.
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Al Bundy
Posts: 4,180
May 2, 2014 5:09pm
I would have to look more into, but I believe these stats are probably very skewed. It became much easier to make a pro bowl over time because the top players often didn't go and rosters became expanded. Look how often we alternates going at multiple positions.thavoice;1611993 wrote:Lets check that out: I know PBs may not be the best guide, but is at least something to look at.
1990's top picks.
27 combined Pro Bowls by 90's top picks. 5 failed to make one pro bowl.
1980's top picks.:
40 combined prob bowls. 2 failed to make one.
1970's top picks
19 combined prob bowls. 5 failed to make one.
2000-2009 top picks
17 combined pro bowls and 4 failed to make one. I think Stafford has a chance to make one yet making it down to 3 failed to make it and the overall # cannot be valued quite yet.
Laley23
Posts: 29,506
May 2, 2014 6:05pm
Since 2000, only Alex Smith might have been an alternate.Al Bundy;1612058 wrote:I would have to look more into, but I believe these stats are probably very skewed. It became much easier to make a pro bowl over time because the top players often didn't go and rosters became expanded. Look how often we alternates going at multiple positions.
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Footwedge
Posts: 9,265
May 2, 2014 10:28pm
LOL. We are always oh so happy 2 years down the road. Yeah...let's draft a lineman at 4. SMFH.like_that;1611910 wrote:We take robinson at 4 and a QB at 26, I am willing to bet we will all be happy in a couple years with the 2014 draft.
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Footwedge
Posts: 9,265
May 2, 2014 10:30pm
Kiper had him as the number one overall pick before his senior season. He based it on his stellar 54% completion rate.HighRoller74;1611792 wrote:Tl:dr version of above post.
That's kipers final Big Board. Locker is 25, and was still drafted 8th.
In other words FW....wrong again.
Terry_Tate
Posts: 7,606
May 2, 2014 10:48pm
So, the number one pick is closer to 8th overall than 25th, and you're trying to say that was worse when it was actually closer to what really happened? Good call.Footwedge;1612135 wrote:Kiper had him as the number one overall pick before his senior season. He based it on his stellar 54% completion rate.
Lovejoy1984
Posts: 5,277
May 2, 2014 11:04pm
And by the end of the process he had him down to #25, and he was selected 8th.Footwedge;1612135 wrote:Kiper had him as the number one overall pick before his senior season. He based it on his stellar 54% completion rate.
Really not sure why you're so stuck on initial projections, when in all other aspects of life, they final projection/quote/offer is what matters is terms of forecasting.
Then, you gotta go with what actually happens. He actually underrated Locker when you look strictly at the numbers.
Laley23
Posts: 29,506
May 3, 2014 12:52am
I'm 100% sure FW thinks Kiper is predicting how they fare in the NFL, not how they will be drafted.
Ive heard him say this year already, the Vikings have to get better at QB and thus will draft one, but he doesn't think it will work out cause he doesn't see a fit for them. He doesn't otedict how shit will go down in the NFL, just iownhe thinks the draft will play out.
He won on Locker, versus everyone else lol
Ive heard him say this year already, the Vikings have to get better at QB and thus will draft one, but he doesn't think it will work out cause he doesn't see a fit for them. He doesn't otedict how shit will go down in the NFL, just iownhe thinks the draft will play out.
He won on Locker, versus everyone else lol
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Footwedge
Posts: 9,265
May 3, 2014 1:00am
Pay attention...one last time. Draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. had Locker as the number one overall pick prior to his senior year...and he said that after reviewing 3 years of shit performance at Washington. I'm done explaining it to you.Terry_Tate;1612144 wrote:So, the number one pick is closer to 8th overall than 25th, and you're trying to say that was worse when it was actually closer to what really happened? Good call.
And the fact that he was actually picked number 8 overall just goes to show you the BREOWNS are not the exclusive member of idiocy.
Terry_Tate
Posts: 7,606
May 3, 2014 1:15am
Yep, lol, it's just hilarious to me that Kiper apparently did the best at predicting where he would go in the Draft and that's being turned into a negative.Laley23;1612162 wrote:I'm 100% sure FW thinks Kiper is predicting how they fare in the NFL, not how they will be drafted.
Ive heard him say this year already, the Vikings have to get better at QB and thus will draft one, but he doesn't think it will work out cause he doesn't see a fit for them. He doesn't otedict how shit will go down in the NFL, just iownhe thinks the draft will play out.
He won on Locker, versus everyone else lol
SportsAndLady
Posts: 35,632
May 3, 2014 10:14am
Footwedge is literally the dumbest browns fan ever.
lhslep134
Posts: 9,774
May 3, 2014 1:51pm
SportsAndLady;1612206 wrote:Footwedge is literally the dumbest person ever.
FIFY, he's proven it over and over again. I'll never forget percentiles
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Footwedge
Posts: 9,265
May 3, 2014 1:54pm
There s hope after all. Today's PD had Shanahan's take on Manziel. But more importantly, Pettine said the following....
Coach Mike Pettine said Shanahan will have more input on the quarterback decision than he will "as he should. I’m going to defer to an expert. I can say what a good one looks like, but there are times I don’t know I can say why he’s good. There are things you’re looking for, but as far as the technical part of it, I’ll certainly defer to him and (quarterbacks coach) Dowell (Loggains) and as far as what they’re looking for in the system.
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2014/05/cleveland_browns_oc_kyle_shana_5.html
Coach Mike Pettine said Shanahan will have more input on the quarterback decision than he will "as he should. I’m going to defer to an expert. I can say what a good one looks like, but there are times I don’t know I can say why he’s good. There are things you’re looking for, but as far as the technical part of it, I’ll certainly defer to him and (quarterbacks coach) Dowell (Loggains) and as far as what they’re looking for in the system.
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2014/05/cleveland_browns_oc_kyle_shana_5.html