Steel Valley Football;1073285 wrote:Assume Zwick's local housing market is down around 25% for our example over the last five years. Five years ago, Zwick paid/built for $200k and the new house he wants was built/sold for $400k.
The current market value of Zwicks house is $150k and the new house is $300k. Should he take the $50k loss to buy the $400k house at a $100k discount? The only solid data we have about the market is that it is cyclical.
I think that's what he is asking anyway. With different numbers obviously.
Yes, I think that's essentially the question.
What makes it trickier is that the house he bought 5 years ago may have a mortgage at 6%, while he could get a mortgage at 3.75% now. If he waits a year or two, that opportunity may pass. Additionally, he'll have to pay closing costs/realtor commissions that mess with the numbers.
If the end goal is for him to end up in the larger home, my sense is that it's probably worth it to take the hit now, since he'll pay the commission at some point, and the interest rate is likely never going to get better. If he's otherwise satisfied with where he is and is okay staying there forever, or if the place he moves may be an in-between to the place he really wants, it may be worth it to gut it out a year or two and then buy the dream home.
Another factor to consider is whether the more expensive home will appreciate and recoup its losses at a faster rate. I suspect that will depend on the local market. Here, modest homes (say, <$150k) haven't lost much value at all, nor have super expensive homes (say, >$1 MM). But lots of homes in-between ($300-600k) have taken a beating. The nuances of the local market may mean that the two homes won't appreciate at the same rate (though, as you point out, if they do, then the bigger home is going to be a better buy).
A final issue that just came to mind is the opportunity cost of the $12k he'd have to fork over. Depending on his debt/savings/investment situation, the cost of that money can be very different (and that's what ultimately swayed us a month ago when we were in this same situation--we could use the money to knock off student loan debt, which is a conservative way to go, and then figured we'd wait out the market another year or two before making a move). If the alternative is to have the money in a savings account at 0.2% interest, that's another story.