Well, first off my definition of "legitimate" would be a team that would win 8+ games in any conference, and on Boise's schedule I'd say only TCU (even with the performance against Baylor) and Georgia fit. I would say maybe 4-5 teams fit that criteria on most BCS schedules (for example: Nebraska, Wisconsin, possibly Penn State/Michigan/MSU for Ohio State).enigmaax;883363 wrote:Even if one were to accept this, where are these 5 "pretty good" teams on Boise's schedule?
As far as the "pretty good" teams - Air Force, SDSU, and Tulsa for sure. Those are all 8-9 win teams. I don't know how good teams like Nevada or Fresno State are supposed to be this season, but based on past results they'll probably win 8 games or so too.
Just taking 1 source, the nationalchamps.net preseason top 50 had TCU #13, Tulsa #25, Georgia #28, Air Force #38, and San Diego State #43. Who knows if any of those rankings will hold, but based on expectations I'd say those are all at least "pretty good" teams.
Nevada is tough to judge this year because Kaepernick was so important to that offense, and in the last few years Fresno State has beaten Kansas State, UCLA, Illinois (twice), Cincinnati, Rutgers, and Georgia Tech and lost to Wisconsin by 3 and to Texas A&M in OT, winning 7+ games every year, so I would say they're at least a "pretty good" team most seasons (especially at home). They lost to Cal this weekend though so who knows for this year, but they have a track record of being at least solid for several years now.
I'd say there is a risk of losing to just about anyone if you don't play well. That said, Purdue in 2009 was the only game Ohio State has lost since 2004 against a team that didn't at least make a BCS bowl, so they've tended to take care of business against all bad teams regardless of conference affiliation. Just a few examples of mid-major games that were close in recent years:enigmaax;883363 wrote:If OSU plays its worst game of the year against a 4-win Big Ten team, there is a risk of losing. If OSU plays its worst game of the year against a 4-win MWC team, what is going to happen? They only win by a couple TDs?
2009: Ohio State 31 Navy 27 (I know Navy wasn't a 4 win team, but they're a good example of what I consider a "pretty good" team from your Boise State question)
2008: Ohio State 26 Ohio U 14 (included because it was 14-12 OU after 3 quarters, Bobcats went 4-8)
2004: Ohio State 24 Marshall 21 (Marshall 6-6)
2003: Ohio State 16 San Diego State 13 (SDSU 6-6)
2002: Ohio State 23 Cincinnati 19 (Bearcats went 7-7 and lost to North Texas in a bowl)
Not necessarily 4 win teams, but I think it serves the point.
Either way, Boise State is going to keep on winning and people are going to keep on hating. Then they'll probably win another BCS game this year and still get no respect when they do it all over again next season. It's a never-ending cycle, so I'm ready to just move on because this argument isn't changing anything about the BCS.