2020 Reds Talk

Leads the league in ERA, Ks, WHIP. Also has 2 complete game shutouts in 11 starts.

posted by justincredible

Do the Reds finally get their first Cy Young with Bauer?

Wait. What?  The Reds have never had a CYA?

Edit:

Yes.  I looked it up.  I’m stunned .......in all that history.

posted by justincredible

Bauer is better in pretty much every category except for market-size.

Bauer should absolutely win it, but he probably won’t. Because of this exact reason. 

posted by Laley23

I think it’s DeGrom, but real close

DeGrom’s numbers better? Bauer pitches in a tougher park also.

posted by Ironman92

DeGrom’s numbers better? Bauer pitches in a tougher park also.

You know I’m a big advanced stats guy, so if Trevor caught DeGrom he deserves to win (frankly, hard to say he doesn’t deserve it anyway), but Bauer was trailing in some advanced stats — may have caught him last night. WAR and FIP (the two most important for a pitcher). BBREF hasn’t updated yet.

FIP should be one of the major standards we use for pitchers. Especially if the actual ERA is close.

posted by Laley23

You know I’m a big advanced stats guy, so if Trevor caught DeGrom he deserves to win (frankly, hard to say he doesn’t deserve it anyway), but Bauer was trailing in some advanced stats — may have caught him last night. WAR and FIP (the two most important for a pitcher). BBREF hasn’t updated yet.

FIP should be one of the major standards we use for pitchers. Especially if the actual ERA is close.

All games are equal I know....but also last night was huge and Bauer was as good as any Reds pitcher I can remember.

Anyone ever watch his youtube channel? I watched his breakdown of Tim Anderson's HR off of him the other day and it was great. I really hope the Reds can make some noise in the playoffs and Bauer will want to stay.

posted by Laley23

You know I’m a big advanced stats guy, so if Trevor caught DeGrom he deserves to win (frankly, hard to say he doesn’t deserve it anyway), but Bauer was trailing in some advanced stats — may have caught him last night. WAR and FIP (the two most important for a pitcher). BBREF hasn’t updated yet.

FIP should be one of the major standards we use for pitchers. Especially if the actual ERA is close.

deGrom's FIP is crazy low, but I wouldn't consider their ERAs to be very close (1.73 vs 2.14). Given all of the other statistical advantages Bauer has it would be hard to deny him the CYA.

posted by BRF

Wait. What?  The Reds have never had a CYA?

Edit:

Yes.  I looked it up.  I’m stunned .......in all that history.

Crazy, right?

posted by justincredible

deGrom's FIP is crazy low, but I wouldn't consider their ERAs to be very close (1.73 vs 2.14). Given all of the other statistical advantages Bauer has it would be hard to deny him the CYA.

I’ll say, the fact Bauer got to 100Ks to finish ahead of DeGrom is gonna go a long way. 

Doing what he did on short rest in a must-win game has to account for something, as well.

posted by Laley23
It’s close. It’s probably like a single earned run lol.

Bauer has given up a single earned run less than deGrom. But in 10 more innings.

posted by justincredible

Bauer has given up a single earned run less than deGrom. But in 10 more innings.

So that would make DeGroms Ks more impressive (K/9), likely his K% as well, which makes sense why his FIP is ridiculous and his WAR is also slightly higher. Its splitting hairs, really. I'd love to see Bauer win the award, because I fucking love Bauer. Just think DeGrom was a fraction better this year.

deGrom has about 1 more K per 9.

posted by Laley23

So that would make DeGroms Ks more impressive (K/9), likely his K% as well, which makes sense why his FIP is ridiculous and his WAR is also slightly higher. Its splitting hairs, really. I'd love to see Bauer win the award, because I fucking love Bauer. Just think DeGrom was a fraction better this year.

Any of the stats account for stadium pitching in?

posted by Ironman92

Any of the stats account for stadium pitching in?

Not sure if FIP does or not.

Here are the park factor rankings for the season. GABP is certainly not a pitchers park. Citi Field is middle of the road.

http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor

Giants lost tonight, which gives the Reds a 1/2 game cushion. Milwaukee plays St. Louis, which helps us regardless of who wins.

Meaningful September baseball is fun. I've missed the shit out of this.

posted by Ironman92

Any of the stats account for stadium pitching in?

I think FIP does. ERA+ does. Fangraphs WAR weights FIP more than ERA, so that would be in there as well I think.