sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 11, 2017 2:06pm
I do. What about Kizer gives you any confidence he will be in the league longer than 3 years?Commander of Awesome;1836651 wrote:http://football.realgm.com/analysis/2935/NFL-Mock-Draft-30-Post-Super-Bowl-Edition
Don't hate it.
Commander of Awesome
Posts: 23,151
Feb 12, 2017 11:20pm
At this point, I think Kizer has the most upside. Big kid, cannon, good athlete, from the area playing for a dumpster fire. If we don't get Jimmy G, I like Kizer or Mahomes at the QB spot.sleeper;1836735 wrote:I do. What about Kizer gives you any confidence he will be in the league longer than 3 years?
Crimson streak
Posts: 9,002
Feb 13, 2017 9:36am
The Browns’ analytical approach can actually be pretty easily determined (besides what value they place on Garoppolo), because their current Director of Research and Strategy, Kevin Meers, wrote an article several years ago that took Jimmy Johnson’s famous draft trade value chart and made some much needed updates. He uses Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Values (CAV) to determine what each pick’s true value is, and while that’s not a perfect way to determine player value, it gives us insight as to how the Browns approach the draft and this potential trade.
Jimmy Garoppolo was the 62nd pick in the 2014 draft, and in this year’s draft, the Browns hold the first, 12th, 33rd, 50th, and 65th picks, while the Patriots have the 32nd, 64th, and 96th picks in the first three rounds (the Patriots potentially have a compensatory third-round pick acquired in the Jamie Collins trade). Initial reports/sources stated the Patriots wanted compensation similar to what the Eagles received in the Sam Bradford trade—a first and fourth-round pick. Considering the Browns have two first-round picks, they have the ammunition to make this happen, and also considering that the Patriots don’t have a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft, the 12th overall pick and a fourth-round pick next year is in line with what New England wants.
However, I don’t see this scenario happening, as the Browns’ analytical approach covets draft picks, and if that fourth-round pick Cleveland trades is near the top of the round, that package is the equivalent of the fourth overall pick in the draft, based on the chart. Simply put, increasing the value of Garoppolo 58 spots in the draft based on six quarters of play is unlikely. A more likely scenario of the first- and fourth-round picks playing out is if the teams swap first-round picks, which places Garoppolo’s value at the No. 33 pick. Any conversation that starts with a straight first and fourth for Garoppolo won’t have legs when it comes to the Browns.
Another popular trade scenario is trading two second-round picks for Garoppolo. If the Browns trade both of their later second-round picks in 2017 (pick 50) and in 2018 (not set, but assume 50 again), that’s valuing Garoppolo as the 10th overall pick—another unlikely trade scenario. If the Patriots were to throw in their third-round pick (perhaps the compensatory pick they got in the Collins trade), that puts the value of Garoppolo as a late first-round pick, and closer to that No. 33 slot, like in the previous scenario.
Again, we have no idea how the Browns value Garoppolo, and a trade between the two teams will heavily rely on that, but expect the value of the Patriots’ backup to be closer to No. 33 than No. 12, and therefore a package deal that ends up with the Browns holding both their first-round picks and parting with some second-round picks in exchange for Garoppolo and another later-round pick.
www.profootballfocus.com/pro-3-possible-trade-destinations-for-patriots-qb-jimmy-garoppolo/?utm_content=buffer6dab3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl
I would definitely be up for reading 1st round picks to the pats, and a 4th for jimmy. That would give us the #1, 32, 33, and 50. I'd do that in a heartbeat
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Jimmy Garoppolo was the 62nd pick in the 2014 draft, and in this year’s draft, the Browns hold the first, 12th, 33rd, 50th, and 65th picks, while the Patriots have the 32nd, 64th, and 96th picks in the first three rounds (the Patriots potentially have a compensatory third-round pick acquired in the Jamie Collins trade). Initial reports/sources stated the Patriots wanted compensation similar to what the Eagles received in the Sam Bradford trade—a first and fourth-round pick. Considering the Browns have two first-round picks, they have the ammunition to make this happen, and also considering that the Patriots don’t have a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft, the 12th overall pick and a fourth-round pick next year is in line with what New England wants.
However, I don’t see this scenario happening, as the Browns’ analytical approach covets draft picks, and if that fourth-round pick Cleveland trades is near the top of the round, that package is the equivalent of the fourth overall pick in the draft, based on the chart. Simply put, increasing the value of Garoppolo 58 spots in the draft based on six quarters of play is unlikely. A more likely scenario of the first- and fourth-round picks playing out is if the teams swap first-round picks, which places Garoppolo’s value at the No. 33 pick. Any conversation that starts with a straight first and fourth for Garoppolo won’t have legs when it comes to the Browns.
Another popular trade scenario is trading two second-round picks for Garoppolo. If the Browns trade both of their later second-round picks in 2017 (pick 50) and in 2018 (not set, but assume 50 again), that’s valuing Garoppolo as the 10th overall pick—another unlikely trade scenario. If the Patriots were to throw in their third-round pick (perhaps the compensatory pick they got in the Collins trade), that puts the value of Garoppolo as a late first-round pick, and closer to that No. 33 slot, like in the previous scenario.
Again, we have no idea how the Browns value Garoppolo, and a trade between the two teams will heavily rely on that, but expect the value of the Patriots’ backup to be closer to No. 33 than No. 12, and therefore a package deal that ends up with the Browns holding both their first-round picks and parting with some second-round picks in exchange for Garoppolo and another later-round pick.
www.profootballfocus.com/pro-3-possible-trade-destinations-for-patriots-qb-jimmy-garoppolo/?utm_content=buffer6dab3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl
I would definitely be up for reading 1st round picks to the pats, and a 4th for jimmy. That would give us the #1, 32, 33, and 50. I'd do that in a heartbeat
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sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 13, 2017 10:31am
I'd give up a 2nd rounder at best for Jimmy G. That's what he's worth.
Commander of Awesome
Posts: 23,151
Feb 13, 2017 11:49am
Carson fucking Wentz went for more than that, try again.sleeper;1836908 wrote:I'd give up a 2nd rounder at best for Jimmy G. That's what he's worth.
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 13, 2017 12:09pm
Rather irrelevant. Jimmy G is sitting behind a 39 year old QB. Pardon me if I don't want to give up quality draft picks for that.Commander of Awesome;1836928 wrote:Carson fucking Wentz went for more than that, try again.
Crimson streak
Posts: 9,002
Feb 13, 2017 12:26pm
In reality we wouldn't be giving up anything but a 4th rounder if they swap 1st round picks.sleeper;1836908 wrote:I'd give up a 2nd rounder at best for Jimmy G. That's what he's worth.
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like_that
Posts: 26,625
Feb 13, 2017 12:35pm
Crimson streak;1836899 wrote:The Browns’ analytical approach can actually be pretty easily determined (besides what value they place on Garoppolo), because their current Director of Research and Strategy, Kevin Meers, wrote an article several years ago that took Jimmy Johnson’s famous draft trade value chart and made some much needed updates. He uses Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Values (CAV) to determine what each pick’s true value is, and while that’s not a perfect way to determine player value, it gives us insight as to how the Browns approach the draft and this potential trade.
Jimmy Garoppolo was the 62nd pick in the 2014 draft, and in this year’s draft, the Browns hold the first, 12th, 33rd, 50th, and 65th picks, while the Patriots have the 32nd, 64th, and 96th picks in the first three rounds (the Patriots potentially have a compensatory third-round pick acquired in the Jamie Collins trade). Initial reports/sources stated the Patriots wanted compensation similar to what the Eagles received in the Sam Bradford trade—a first and fourth-round pick. Considering the Browns have two first-round picks, they have the ammunition to make this happen, and also considering that the Patriots don’t have a fourth-round pick in the 2018 draft, the 12th overall pick and a fourth-round pick next year is in line with what New England wants.
However, I don’t see this scenario happening, as the Browns’ analytical approach covets draft picks, and if that fourth-round pick Cleveland trades is near the top of the round, that package is the equivalent of the fourth overall pick in the draft, based on the chart. Simply put, increasing the value of Garoppolo 58 spots in the draft based on six quarters of play is unlikely. A more likely scenario of the first- and fourth-round picks playing out is if the teams swap first-round picks, which places Garoppolo’s value at the No. 33 pick. Any conversation that starts with a straight first and fourth for Garoppolo won’t have legs when it comes to the Browns.
Another popular trade scenario is trading two second-round picks for Garoppolo. If the Browns trade both of their later second-round picks in 2017 (pick 50) and in 2018 (not set, but assume 50 again), that’s valuing Garoppolo as the 10th overall pick—another unlikely trade scenario. If the Patriots were to throw in their third-round pick (perhaps the compensatory pick they got in the Collins trade), that puts the value of Garoppolo as a late first-round pick, and closer to that No. 33 slot, like in the previous scenario.
Again, we have no idea how the Browns value Garoppolo, and a trade between the two teams will heavily rely on that, but expect the value of the Patriots’ backup to be closer to No. 33 than No. 12, and therefore a package deal that ends up with the Browns holding both their first-round picks and parting with some second-round picks in exchange for Garoppolo and another later-round pick.
www.profootballfocus.com/pro-3-possible-trade-destinations-for-patriots-qb-jimmy-garoppolo/?utm_content=buffer6dab3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=nfl
I would definitely be up for reading 1st round picks to the pats, and a 4th for jimmy. That would give us the #1, 32, 33, and 50. I'd do that in a heartbeat
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I would do this in a heartbeat.Crimson streak;1836943 wrote:In reality we wouldn't be giving up anything but a 4th rounder if they swap 1st round picks.
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SportsAndLady
Posts: 35,632
Feb 13, 2017 1:36pm
Give up our second first rounder or both our seconds for Jimmy G. We need a QB, and he's a good QB imo. Get it done and let's move on with the rebuild with our franchise QB in hand.
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 13, 2017 1:40pm
How'd Matt Cassel work out?SportsAndLady;1836962 wrote:Give up our second first rounder or both our seconds for Jimmy G. We need a QB, and he's a good QB imo. Get it done and let's move on with the rebuild with our franchise QB in hand.
Commander of Awesome
Posts: 23,151
Feb 13, 2017 2:33pm
EZSportsAndLady;1836962 wrote:Give up our second first rounder or both our seconds for Jimmy G. We need a QB, and he's a good QB imo. Get it done and let's move on with the rebuild with our franchise QB in hand.
Commander of Awesome
Posts: 23,151
Feb 13, 2017 2:34pm
How'd Brett Farve work out?sleeper;1836965 wrote:How'd Matt Cassel work out?
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 13, 2017 4:19pm
How'd Matt Flynn work out?Commander of Awesome;1836979 wrote:How'd Brett Farve work out?
Commander of Awesome
Posts: 23,151
Feb 13, 2017 4:33pm
How'd Matt Schuab work out?sleeper;1837022 wrote:How'd Matt Flynn work out?
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 13, 2017 4:48pm
Kyle OrtonCommander of Awesome;1837023 wrote:How'd Matt Schuab work out?
Alex Smith
Jay Cutler
How'd they work out?
I can go all night bro. There are trillions more NFL QBs like Jimmy G who flopped and now sell used cars. Nothing I've seen from him warrants mortgaging the future. 2nd round pick at best.
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Feb 13, 2017 4:50pm
Has sleeper ever wanted a QB?
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 13, 2017 4:53pm
Yes. I advocated trading the entire draft to move up and select Andrew Luck.like_that;1837030 wrote:Has sleeper ever wanted a QB?
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Feb 13, 2017 4:54pm
Link?
SportsAndLady
Posts: 35,632
Feb 13, 2017 5:00pm
Lol sleeper being anti-jimmy G makes me want him even more. Sleeper is right less than 50% of the time so the odds are in my favor.
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 13, 2017 5:04pm
You're good at looking through my post history so go find it yourself.like_that;1837034 wrote:Link?
The reality is, you asked a question and I answered it. The idea that there is some diamond in the rough QB currently on a team that's going to bring us to the promise is fantasy at best.
The draft this year is absolute dog shit when it comes to QBs so I've already resigned myself that the upcoming season is going to be another mess.
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 13, 2017 5:05pm
That's interesting. The list of times sleeper was right when everyone said I was wrong is longer than the character limit this forum will allow.SportsAndLady;1837035 wrote:Lol sleeper being anti-jimmy G makes me want him even more. Sleeper is right less than 50% of the time so the odds are in my favor.
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Feb 13, 2017 5:19pm
sleeper;1837036 wrote:I just made that up.
Got it.
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Feb 13, 2017 5:20pm
Right...like_that;1837038 wrote:Got it.
The reality is, if you disagree with me you are very likely to be wrong. Enjoy!
Crimson streak
Posts: 9,002
Feb 13, 2017 6:42pm
At least all those qb's took their teams to the playoffs...sleeper;1837026 wrote:Kyle Orton
Alex Smith
Jay Cutler
How'd they work out?
I can go all night bro. There are trillions more NFL QBs like Jimmy G who flopped and now sell used cars. Nothing I've seen from him warrants mortgaging the future. 2nd round pick at best.
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Commander of Awesome
Posts: 23,151
Feb 13, 2017 6:45pm
Two things:sleeper;1837033 wrote:Yes. I advocated trading the entire draft to move up and select Andrew Luck.
1. How'd that work out for the Colts this year? (/sleeper logic)
2. Colts wouldn't have done that deal, so your avocation was worthless. Enjoy!