gut;1302987 wrote:You keep announcing as fact that the reason Paul or Johnson didn't win was because of lack of funds or popularity.
Actually, I thought that was the first time I'd mentioned it, but I'll take your word for it.
gut;1302987 wrote:Romney didn't start out as the favorite, and certainly at least a few who were temporarily well ahead of him.
He didn't lead the polls the entire time, if that's what you mean. However, most people were betting on Romney once the debates began. He was in the talks last time, even, and there was discussion back then that this would be "his turn."
He was absolutely the favorite this go-around. People were shocked when Santorum popped up in the polls over him. Hell, Santorum (the only one competing with him at the time) dropped out. You think he actually would have if he'd had a chance at winning?
Nobody else was NEARLY as likely to win as Romney, beginning to end. I think you can even find plenty of people on here that were saying precisely that back when so many of the candidates were still involved. To suggest he wasn't the favorite from the get-go is silly and disingenuous.
gut;1302987 wrote:And Paul is a joke ...
What about Paul is a joke? Obviously, the people in his district don't think so. Neither does the Libertarian Party. Neither do a good portion of Republicans AND Democrats (he finished second in the Democratic Primary voting in New Hampshire).
You might disagree with him, and I wouldn't hold that against you (though I ask about it), but to simply write him off as a joke borders on a Rush Limbaugh fallacy.
gut;1302987 wrote:... so let's just talk about Johnson. If Johnson had been such a great choice, he would have actually managed to at least register on the radar.
Yes, Libertarian candidates certainly have a history of showing up on the radar in the primaries for the Republican Party. It couldn't have had anything to do with the fact that he was openly against some of the policies that the rest of the "front-runners" said they supported ... right.
gut;1302987 wrote:No, the more logical explanation is Paul/Johnson aren't the messiahs you make them out to be.
Johnson is hardly a messiah. Again, if you've read elsewhere on this forum, you'll see that my voting for Johnson is a compromise. There is plenty I don't like about his platform as a whole. I just think he's actually good for the country ... more than bad, anyway.
But since you bring up the LOGICAL explanation, it's that they don't fit the party line, and the default with BOTH parties is that the candidates who fit the party line most closely will be the ones getting the nod.
Neither of them thinks we should invade a foreign nation to keep it from possessing the same kinds of weapons we ourselves possess ... from exercising the same sovereignty that we exercise.
The LOGICAL explanation is that since they don't support military imperialism (funded by us good tax-payers, of course), which is currently a seemlingly key tenet of the Republican Party, they seemed fringe.
gut;1302987 wrote:Or that they were ineffective at communicating their message.
Or they were crystal clear about their message, but the contemporary Grand Ol' Party doesn't like it. Their foreign policy doesn't end with "Fuck yeah!" enough to get a foot-hold in the Republican Party, no matter how much more sense they make economically. Hell, how many times was it even posted on here that people liked everything about Ron Paul "except for his position on Iran?"
gut;1302987 wrote:Or - and I know this one appears to be hard for you to wrap your head around - people actually see significant differences between Romney and Obama and believe he is a superior choice.
How much have we heard on here that Romney sucks ... from professed Republicans, no less?
Moreover, on what is he different ... what issue? And what policy on that issue differs substantially?
We haven't, after all, seen any president who wasn't either a Republican or Democrat since the turn of the 20th century, so I would contend that HISTORY suggests that we vote for the party-line Republican or Democrat because ... well ... we've gotten into quite a habit of viewing those as the only two viable options.
So if someone comes a long and runs as a Republican (or a Democrat, for that matter), but they don't agree with the rest of the Republican field on a particular issue, it's pretty easy to paint them as not-quite-Republican.
gut;1302987 wrote:You want to send up Paul or Johnson to swing for the fences and reality is they strike out.
No, the reality is, the coaches aren't letting them bat.
Honestly, think back to being in school, with student council. If the popular kid voted "most likely to play a pro sport" went up against the nerd voted "most likely to succeed," who was going to win? The majority of the people voting didn't care who had better ideas or an actual plan. They voted on popularity and familiarity.
You REALLY think the majority of Americans vote differently now?
gut;1302987 wrote:Romney is more likely to get on base.
Doesn't matter if the runs all count for the same team.
gut;1302987 wrote:It's easy to be dismissive of the electorate, but perhaps they do deserve a bit more credit.
Historically, I think they do. There is a reason that the Republican and Democrat parties became as popular as they did.
Today's version of the two are reaping the benefits of what they're not sowing. Not sure what kind of credit that deserves. You're welcome to judge for yourself, but on merit alone, I'd suggest both parties have been the ones striking out when they get the chance (to avoid losing the message in the analogy, I mean the presidency).
gut;1302987 wrote:Certainly these last two elections - and for years, not just 1 day every 4 years - have been ripe for a 3rd party or non-mainstream candidate to emerge.
And they have been, which is why we're having this discussion. Sixteen years ago ... hell, even eight years ago ... we probably wouldn't be having this discussion NEARLY as frequently as we do today (by "we," I mean the American people).
gut;1302987 wrote:That it hasn't happened perhaps says more about such a candidate/platform than it does about the electorate.
If you omit the fact that we've got over 110 years of status quo to overcome, I agree, but preconceived prejudices don't change quickly when they've been going on that long.
At some point, you do have to admit that people stop thinking about what they're doing and just start doing what they always do, because ... well ... that's how they've always done it.
The safe play for Paul, Johnson, or any non-party-liner would have been to put convictions away and tow the party line. It's been the safest bet in recent history, and it will continue to be the safest bet as long as voters mentally check out and vote based on party affiliation.
For what it's worth, by "based on party affiliation," I'm including those who switch each election because they "didn't like the last Republican" or "didn't like the last Democrat" and then automatically default to the other major party.
Advocating that we continue in such a rut seems like, as Einstein would have put it, insanity.