gorocks99;1397430 wrote:Figured this would be tight. PSU playing a lot better as of late

I thought it would be around 10 or so, but let's be serious, Penn State is on a 26 to 8 run in the second half. Michigan had this game firmly in hand. This is a collapse of epic proportions.

Now it's an embarrassment. Michigan hasn't been the same since they lost to OSU.

That's a brutal loss.

I've said it before, I'll say it again. Michigan fans will be disappointed in March.

reclegend22;1397431 wrote:Michigan's players might as well start waving, because their chances of a one, two or three seed are going goodbye. This would be the worst loss of the year for any major team.

Note: I had Michigan at -3 on a sweetheart teaser and it will be my only loss. So I am biased lol. But still a horrible, horrible loss.

It's up their with KU's loss to TCU

Losses where you just say to yourself "What the fucking fuck?"

Michigan...

I'm not a Michigan hater by any means -- I actively root for them on the last Saturday of November every year -- but I feel like the Michigan loss was so damn bad that this thread deserves to be bumped.

As a Duke fan, though, I don't care about the money I lost and celebrate the fact that the Wolverines are no longer a one seed candidate. Probably not even a two seed. This loss opens up a lot of room for other teams hovering in that range of seeding. This loss will have a big impact on seeding being that it occurred two days before the start of March.

Doesn't matter where they seed. If they keep playing the way they have, they'll be out soon.

Seriously, how the hell did Michigan lose to Penn State? PSU is REALLY REALLY bad this year.

Rec is overreacting a bit. UofM is right there for everything still. I doubt they get a 1, but if they win out and make the finals of the B1G or even win the BTT they are probably a 1. Did TCUs loss matter to Kansas' chances?? Apparently not, and Id say its just as bad (I havent looked at computer numbers). Michigan is definitely still in consideration for a 2 and 3 even with a few more loses (pending they are MSU and IU...imo).

That is a HORRIBLE loss though, no way to sugarcoat it really. Especially considering the leadt that they blew and how late in the game it was.

Michigan was cruising with 10 minutes to go, up 15, and it looked like things were only going to get worse for Penn State. It's almost as if it was a video game and the person playing with Michigan just put down the controller. The Wolverines just stopped, and didn't bother to play the rest of the game from that point on.

They have the talent to get back into Final Four contention -- they were a favorite of mine earlier in the year -- but there are apparently some major issues to work through, whatever they may be.

No way Michigan wins out and makes the BTT finals. The team is shell of what it was early in the season.

Laley23;1397500 wrote:Rec is overreacting a bit.

Not about Michigan losing a one seed, I am not. They have no chance now. No chance. Not this close to March. I see the Wolverines also losing at least another one or possibly two games because of this, which would send the Wolverines to a three seed at best. It will be tough to recover.

I do agree, though, that Michigan still has the talent to do just that. As I indicated above.

reclegend22;1397504 wrote:Not about Michigan losing a one seed, I am not. They have no chance now. No chance. Not this close to March. I see the Wolverines also losing at least another one or possibly two games because of this, which would send the Wolverines to a three seed at best. It will be tough to recover.

I do agree, though, that Michigan still has the talent to do just that. As I indicated above.

Thats the thing though, they do have a shot. I doubt they win out or whatever, so in that sense they dont. But they can still win out which would include wins over IU and MSU and likely those 2 AGAIN...plus OSU/Wisconsin/someone in the BTT. They are a 1 seed if that happens. Sorry, but you are wrong here.

Laley23;1397512 wrote:Thats the thing though, they do have a shot. I doubt they win out or whatever, so in that sense they dont. But they can still win out which would include wins over IU and MSU and likely those 2 AGAIN...plus OSU/Wisconsin/someone in the BTT. They are a 1 seed if that happens. Sorry, but you are wrong here.

Michigan is going to come very close to or drop out of the top ten altogether after this loss. With a loss of such a disastrous nature on the Wolverines' resume, the rest of the teams ahead of them vying for that top seed spot would have to implode in order to be surpassed by Michigan. There is such a thing as recency bias, and the Selection Committee is gonna have it if Michigan finds itself competing with teams with comparable records for a number one seed on Selection Sunday. Kansas' loss happened almost a month ago and their streak of big wins since then has made the loss a distant memory.

Let's say Michigan does win out (not happening, not with the way Michigan has been playing, but for argument's sake we'll take a look). If Duke, Kansas, Florida and Georgetown all finish the regular-season with no more than one loss (to a decent team) -- you could also throw Louisville in there -- and then go on to win their own conference tournaments, they would all get the one seed nods over a similar five-loss Michigan team at this point. Michigan has left a terrible impression heading into the final two weeks of the regular-season. Not to mention, despite that I disagree with this, Gonzaga has pretty much wrapped up a one seed. They won't lose again in the regular-season. So, basically, there are only three top seeds up for grabs, and I'd argue that Indiana is pretty much a lock barring disaster. So, while my argument may not be scientific, Michigan has pretty much zero shot at a one seed.

We can agree to disagree.

With Gonzaga already wrapping up a one seed by the authority of most "experts," there is just no way that Michigan will be able to make up enough ground to overtake all of Indiana, Duke, Kansas, Georgetown, Louisville and possibly Michigan State to get a number one. I base a lot of that on the fact that I don't believe there is any way that all of those teams end their season with more than one loss, and that they will all be heavy favorites to cut down the nets at their conference tournaments.

If they win out they are B1G and BTT Champions with 5 top 15 wins in their last 6 games. That will erase the PSU game, imo.

I think Florida has hurt themselves without the chance for a big win (like Michigan will have...5 times). IU will have lost to them twice, same with MSU so they are both passed by Michigan. Gonzaga and either Miami or Duke (not both) have a 1 seed. Georgetown can work its way up or LVille...but not both. Thats 3. Michigan vs Florida...Ill take Michigan after the year if the above scenario played out. It would come down to Kansas/Michigan/Florida. No way is it a shoe-in for any of them at that point.

We can agree that it 'aint happening though. lol

I just wanted to point out that they still DO control their own destiny.

reclegend22;1397542 wrote:With Gonzaga already wrapping up a one seed by the authority of most "experts," there is just no way that Michigan will be able to make up enough ground to overtake all of Indiana, Duke, Kansas, Georgetown, Louisville and possibly Michigan State to get a number one. I base a lot of that on the fact that I don't believe there is any way that all of those teams end their season with more than one loss, and that they will all be heavy favorites to cut down the nets at their conference tournaments.

Two conferences are having co-champs in their tournaments, baby!!!!

/sarcasm mode

I don't know that you can say any of those teams are heavy favorites in their conference tournaments, though. Not just the part where there are two teams from two conferences, but I can't see how one could say Duke or Kansas would be heavy favorites. I can see Kansas as definite favorites, as it seems their losing streak is in the past and they're back to showing fortitude in tough situations and they've recently beat their two main competitors, but to me, it's a leap to go from "they're the favorites" to "they're heavy favorites". As for Duke, they probably should prove they're capable of beating the team in front of them in the standings which hammered them by 27 points earlier before anyone says they're the favorite to do anything more than finish second in their conference.

Laley23;1397543 wrote:If they win out they are B1G and BTT Champions with 5 top 15 wins in their last 6 games. That will erase the PSU game, imo.

I think Florida has hurt themselves without the chance for a big win (like Michigan will have...5 times). IU will have lost to them twice, same with MSU so they are both passed by Michigan. Gonzaga and either Miami or Duke (not both) have a 1 seed. Georgetown can work its way up or LVille...but not both. Thats 3. Michigan vs Florida...Ill take Michigan after the year if the above scenario played out.

We can agree that it 'aint happening though. lol

I just wanted to point out that they still DO control their own destiny.

Not sure if I mentioned this yet or not, but my biggest evidence toward believing Michigan's season is over is that they lost me a lot of money. Haha.

But just for argument's sake: Gonzaga is probably a lock for a one seed and Indiana, with no more than one loss the rest of the way, is also likely a shoe-in for a top seed. That leaves two more one seeds on the table. If Duke, Kansas, Louisville and Georgetown all finish with no more than one loss each in the regular-season and win their conference championships (obviously only one of Louisville and Georgetown can do this), do you still think that Michigan (if it wins out and wins the Big Ten tourney) will upend one of those teams for a top seed? I don't. I think that fresh loss to PSU will linger. But that's just my opinion.

reclegend22;1397545 wrote:Not sure if I mentioned this yet or not, but my biggest evidence toward believing Michigan's season is over is that they lost me a lot of money. Haha.

But just for argument's sake: Gonzaga is probably a lock for a one seed and Indiana, with no more than one loss the rest of the way, is also likely a shoe-in for a top seed. That leaves two more one seeds on the table. If Duke, Kansas, Louisville and Georgetown all finish with no more than one loss each in the regular-season and win their conference championships (obviously only one of Louisville and Georgetown can do this), do you still think that Michigan (if it wins out and wins the Big Ten tourney) will upend one of those teams for a top seed? I don't. I think that fresh loss to PSU will linger. But that's just my opinion.

Michigan still plays MSU and IU in the regular season. So if the hypothetical played out, they would have 4 wins over IU and MSU and then a 5th over OSU/Wisconsin/Illinois or whatever.

So no, if IU only losses 1, that means Michigan loses at some point. Its all hypothetical, but if Michgian DID win out. The 4th #1 would be between, imo, Florida/Kansas/Michigan. None would be a shoe-in, and its assuming all the teams win out (or in BE and ACC, one of the top 2 wins out).

Thats all. And for the record, I dont see it happening at all.

Heretic;1397544 wrote:Two conferences are having co-champs in their tournaments, baby!!!!.

I think it is fairly obvious that only one of those teams from the Big East could achieve the feat in question.

As for whether those teams would be "heavy" favorites or not, eh, I guess I should have just said "favorites." All of them, and you can include Florida as well in the SEC, will be expected to be among the top two or three favorites to win their respective conference tournaments.

reclegend22;1397549 wrote:I think it is fairly obvious that only one of those teams from the Big East could achieve the feat in question.

As for whether those teams would be "heavy" favorites or not, eh, I guess I should have just said "favorites." All of them, and you can include Florida as well in the SEC, will be expected to be among the top two or three favorites to win their respective conference tournaments.

1. Yes. I know. Which is why I included the "/sarcasm mode" immediately afterward. You see, that was me indicating that I was being sarcastic, but I was planning to then get more on point with what you were saying. And now the mystery has been dispelled. Sigh...

2. I agree with that, but with the way this season has gone, being one of the top two or three favorites to win a conference doesn't mean much. First, there are the other one or two favorites. And second, with all the parity at the top (exhibited by how high-ranked teams fall left and right regularly), it's really easy to imagine a situation where these favorites fall a round early because of looking ahead to their match-up with another favorite...or more likely, because they're in and they're going against a team that at least believes they're on the bubble and who really isn't THAT FAR behind the favorite. I will say I'm looking forward to the conference tournaments for that reason -- it'll be interesting to see what teams rise to the occasion in the "game a day" setting of them.

reclegend22;1397542 wrote:With Gonzaga already wrapping up a one seed by the authority of most "experts," there is just no way that Michigan will be able to make up enough ground to overtake all of Indiana, Duke, Kansas, Georgetown, Louisville and possibly Michigan State to get a number one. I base a lot of that on the fact that I don't believe there is any way that all of those teams end their season with more than one loss, and that they will all be heavy favorites to cut down the nets at their conference tournaments.

There's also NO CHANCE Duke wins it this year. They'd be lucky to make the sweet 16. LOL :thumbup:

Also normally I'd chalk the UM loss to the B1G, but I don't think PSU is a very good team. They'd probably win the ACC though because it's Miami and everyone else.

Not good for the big 10 with their top teams stumbling down the stretch. This is supposed to be the year they win the title.