lhslep134;539439 wrote:Objectively reading this, you're completely wishy washy on what is a bust. Karen has made a lot of valid points, but you seem intent on shooting them down. Why?
IMO, it's too soon to call anyone a bust. If anyone from 2007 or later is out of the league now, or will be soon, then they're a bust. If not, then the verdicts not final with them.
FWIW, Oden was playing at a high level last year before his injury, that alone should prevent anyone from saying he's a bust. I also believe injuries shouldn't be counted against someone when discussing that player's bust status, although they do matter to me when discussing whether a pick was a bust (i.e. the Blazer's overall #1 pick was a bust, even if Oden isn't, because of injury). Strange ass logic, but that's how I feel.
Agreed. Greg Oden, when on the floor, is a pretty solid player. I think the Blazers #1 pick was a bust but I do not think it is fair to label Oden a bust because he has been injured. IMO that is not something he can really control.
Laley23;539569 wrote:Busts are directly linked to where they were drafted.
Oden, for being the #1 overall is a bust (with time to make amends). But even if he is solid, the fact that Durant went 2 will always make his accomplishments less. Its like The Dream going #2 with Jordan #3.
Conley was a lottery pick. He is playing solid, but not up to his draft position yet. You take PGs in the lottery to lead teams to greatness. He isnt a bust, but he hasnt lived up to the draft position.
Cook was taken really late in the first. Tough to label those guys, but its telling that he regressed a ton last year and has been traded since then.
Koufos and Mullens Im calling a bust already. Guys with their skill sets dont usually improve a whole lot from what we see initially. Its tough for post players to get better. Neither can crack the rotation and Mullens has spent a lot of time in the D league. You dont spend lottery picks for players to not crack the regular rotation by this point in their careers.
As much as its unfair to the players. Busts are related to draft position, media hype and players taken before/after.
Being a top 5 pick does not really mean a whole lot
Stromile Swift
Marcus Fizer
Darius Miles
Kwame Brown
Eddy Curry
Jay Williams***
Mike Dunleavy
Drew Gooden
Nikoloz Tskitishvili
Darko Milicic
Shaun Livingston***
Adam Morrison
Tyrus Thomas
Shelden Williams
Greg Oden***
Hasheem Thabeet
Ricky Rubio***
The only draft that I do not think had a bust in the top 5 was 2005, but I guess you could make the argument that Marvin Williams has been a bust. Maybe 2008 as well. There are a bunch of top 5ers I would say Conley is comparable to in terms of impact on the court(without looking up stats so I could be dead wrong) : Mike Miller, Kenyon Martin, Marvin Williams, Tyson Chandler, Andrea Bargnani, Jeff Green. After looking at it, there were more duds than studs. Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Pau Gasol, Dwight Howard, Tyreke Evans, Derrick Rose and Kevin Durant have all become really good or great. Then there is that second tier of guys that have become pretty good but not REALLY good and certainly not great: Jason Richardson, Raymond Felton, Yao(could be argued as being great I guess), Emeka Okafor, Ben Gordon, Devin Harris, Andrew Bogut, Lamarcus Alridge, Al Horford, and Russell Westbrook, OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, Michael Beasley.
So in the last 9 years there have been 11 guys that I would say are really, really good that got picked in the top 5. Add in the 13 that I said I would consider as being good but not really good. Then there are the guys that are just average players or maybe a little above that. So if there have been 45 top 5 picks since 2000…about 28% go on to be studs, about 25% to be guys that are good second or third options, about 38% completely suck ass and have provided next to nothing for their teams. Then 20% are in the area Conley is---not a great player, not a pretty good player, but a good player. Given that Conley was drafted in the back end of the top 5, I would say he is fitting in right about where he should be when compared to other players/drafts.
Overall I agree with what you are saying but I also do not think you can really label Oden a bust simply because of the guy that went directly after him. Obviously the Blazers would love to redo that pick but if someone is a bust because of who a team could have had then Hakeem Olajuwon was a bust, Carmelo Anthony is a bust, and Chris Bosh is a bust.