I agree with your contenders but I think Jacksonville is really down on that list as long as Bortles is their QB.
I'll subtract the Packers from your surprise contention team and add San Diego.
Also agree on Vikings but that division, like it's AFC counterpart, is still wide open. A lot of people are high on the Bears at the moment.
I'm offended you're grouping the Jets with the Bengals.
Is it statistically possible for the AFC North to send three teams to the playoffs?