posted by O-Trap
It'll drop big soon. From everything I've read, predictions are a 70%+ drop, which is not without precedent for BTC. I still think it has value, and as such, I don't think it will collapse entirely, but the current overvaluation is ridiculous.
Just compare the run-up, 1800% this year or whatever, vs. just a 33% increase in transactions for goods/services volume. Granted, increased liquidity and investor demand is hard to quantify, but it could easily fall to $2000. 70% is not a bad bet at all....when it starts to dip, shorts could pile-in and really drive it down and it could, in theory, become just as oversold as it became overbought (though I think miners and others have piles they are holding to try and squeeze shorts and provide price support).
Probably a better game than Vegas, but I'd be prepared to lose up to 80% or more....I'd engage in active trading like you mention to try and get some "free" bitcoin to ride for the longer-term. Just like Vegas, keep taking 25-50% of your gains off the table.