posted by gut
Just compare the run-up, 1800% this year or whatever, vs. just a 33% increase in transactions for goods/services volume. Granted, increased liquidity and investor demand is hard to quantify, but it could easily fall to $2000. 70% is not a bad bet at all....when it starts to dip, shorts could pile-in and really drive it down and it could, in theory, become just as oversold as it became overbought (though I think miners and others have piles they are holding to try and squeeze shorts and provide price support).
Probably a better game than Vegas, but I'd be prepared to lose up to 80% or more....I'd engage in active trading like you mention to try and get some "free" bitcoin to ride for the longer-term. Just like Vegas, keep taking 25-50% of your gains off the table.
Yeah, some of the more intense predictions on the drop are as much as 90-95% (so, down to $1000 to $2000). 70%+ just seems like a safe catch-all rate for everything I've read.
Technically, I got into the whole thing with just $50, and I've taken more than that out already, so I'm playing with house money as it is, but none of that house money is in BTC, ETH, LTC, or XRP ... which seem to be the ones that get 99% of the media attention. I think that attention is a large contributor to the most recent overvaluations. Talks of the Winklevoss brothers becoming "Bitcoin billionaires" and all the articles comparing times ("$XX worth of Bitcoin in 2011 would be worth $XX,XXX today!") have to be kerosine on the fire.