enigmaax wrote:
I was trying to figure out the Pac 10 scenarios, you guys may be interested in this since you're going to play the winner of this cluster:
Oregon controls its own destiny; right now they are the only team with one loss so if they win out, they're in.
Arizona also controls its own destiny. They have beaten Oregon State and Stanford, but have Oregon, Arizona State, and USC remaining. Highly unlikely they'll win all three, but even if they beat only Oregon they can throw a wrench into the tiebreaker.
Oregon State has an opportunity to bring Oregon down (other game is vs. Washington St). If upsets are limited, the ideal situation for them is to beat Oregon and have Oregon beat Arizona, as they would then win a three way tiebreaker with Oregon and Stanford by virtue of having beaten them both.
Stanford has lost to both Arizona and Oregon State, so they would benefit most by a tie only with Oregon. Ideally for them, Oregon would beat Oregon State, Arizona would beat Oregon, and Arizona would then lose to either Arizona State or USC.
So, here are the three way tie winners (situation assumes all teams win out other than games mentioned):
Oregon, Stanford, Arizona = Arizona (this requires Az to beat Ore and Ore to beat Ore St)
Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State = Oregon State (this requires Ore to beat Az and Ore St to beat Ore)
Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State = Arizona (this requires Az and Ore St to beat Ore)
I think Oregon's in trouble. the only way they'll get in is if they win out, and I can't see that happening with Arizona and Oregon State, 2 of the 4 best teams in their conference, still left to play. My money is on Stanford, because as I said before, I think Oregon beat Oregon State, but will lose a close one to Arizona. They've already beaten USC and Oregon, whereas the other two teams (Oregon and Arizona) are getting into a mess the next few weeks of all playing and beating tough teams.