WebFire;1611505 wrote:I don't see that happening in 5-10 years. Why would ISPs spend a crapload of money on new infrastructure when one already exists? Wireless internet has been around for quite some time, and hasn't evolved like many thought it would. I worked for a wireless ISP back in 2000-2003. It really hasn't evolved much at all since then. Unless you are talking about 4G type wireless.
No, there's two parts. One is connecting homes wirelessly and that's already pretty close (basically your cellphone). Yeah, 4G or probably advanced LTE.
The second part is the actual backbone, but now you're just building super highways instead of side streets and alleys - the cost drops maybe 90% and that removes a significant barrier to competition. Cities and states might even build that themselves, deciding it's a more valuable public asset.
Cost to build and maintain the connection all the way to the home is significant. But the existing internet infrastructure can't handle delivering everyone's capable, too. But like I said the economics become much more favorable if you only have to upgrade a super highway. And actually a big part of declining investment is the refusal of cities to grant necessary easements.
10 years seems optimistic, but with technology it usually happens much quicker than expected.