jmog;1491296 wrote:Your second bad assumption is that climate researchers have taken bifurcating systems or chaos theory mathematics. Many climate scientists are either PD meteorologists who don't take math higher than differential equations or they are PhD civil engineers that specialize in environmental studies. They again, only take differential equations and typically a high level statistics class. FYI, civil engineers are typically not the brightest engineers.
You get a lot of statisticians in climate research to help the meteorologists out, unfortunately you don't get enough chaoticians (yes, like the guy from Jurassic Park) to fix their models.
So basically all these people are dumb and/unqualified but an engineer who is a life-long partisan conservative who also rejects the even greater overwhelming consensus with regard to darwinian evolution has got it?
The national academy of engineering which concurs with AGW surely has plenty of people who took the same math courses, yes? The National Academy of Engineering doesn't have any of teh SmaRt engineers...only the dumb ones? Why are your colleagues in the engineering community so united in opposition? Surely there are plenty of engineers who've taken higher order math? Why do the non-dumb engineers who know math not dissent from their colleagues? Why are they letting dumb engineers propagate nonsense? Are you the only engineer who has a grasp of chaos theory?
Even if not, a quick internet search doesn't appear to yield the result that mathematicians who surely share your math background generally are in concurrence with AGW.
i.e.
http://mpe2013.org/
So, it seems that even if we accept your assertions that the evidence provided by most climate researchers is prima facie worthless (which is pretty absurd but I'll grant it anyways) it seems like the folks you think are qualified to have an opinion generally disagree with you also.
Since I know nothing about chaos theory I thought I would look into your suggestion. To my surprise, the founder of chaos theory, Edward Norton Lorenz of MIT, was a mathematician and meteorologist and his underlying work on chaos theory has laid the groundwork for modern day climate modeling lol. How can you say there's not enough chaos theory for sure when it's pretty much what started the enterprise of climate research???
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Lorenz
Lorenz also argued that climate forecasting need not be impossible, even if detailed weather forecasts proved impossible due to chaos. His original paper on chaos is often cited by climate-change nay-sayers, who fail to note that in a paper published in the 1970s, "Climate Predictability", he stressed that chaos "does not indicate the rate of decay of climate predictability". In the same paper, Lorenz touched on a theme he was still developing last year: just how long might we need to run a realistic climate model if we want to be fairly sure we know what its climatological distribution really is?
In fact, it seems pretty clear to me that Lorenz is basically the progenitor of climate research and subsequent research has been grounded upon his foundational work. Indeed, the idea of the greenhouse effect and humans causing climate change appears to be grounded in his notion of the "butterfly effect".
Seems pretty clear to me that climate researchers generally are working within the Lorenzian paradigm from this history. The guy seemed skeptical of determining climate change at the outset...a healty skepticism that subsequently informed the entire enterprise.
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/chaos.htm
Climate may or may not be deterministic. We shall probably never know for sure, but as further mathematical theory is developed, and as more realistic models are constructed, we may become more and more confident of our opinions.
http://web.mit.edu/lorenzcenter/about/lorenz.html
That's just what has happened...scientists have become more confident in their opinions. Methinks your dismissal of climate research because it's not informed enough by chaos theory is not correct. The chaos theory based models of Lorenz have informed the entire project it looks like to me.
Unimaginable that climate researchers are ignoring the founder of their field. Like a neo-keynesian ignoring Keynes. It's like you're saying a neo-keynesian economic model is ignoring Keynes when the whole model is informed by his work.
Why does only Jmog know to use the founder of climate research when the whole rest of the academy of engineering would ignore it, etc.