G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Nov 4, 2012 2:59pm
LMAO...what, did those polls have D+12?
Perhaps the reason Obama is working so hard to fire-up his base is he needs a bunch of them to vote twice
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Nov 4, 2012 3:04pm
Can't forget Mickey Mouse gutgut;1312211 wrote:LMAO...what, did those polls have D+12?
Perhaps the reason Obama is working so hard to fire-up his base is he needs a bunch of them to vote twice
The sample in those polls was 37 D,37 R
T
Timber
Posts: 935
Nov 4, 2012 4:06pm
"Can't you see?"
T
Timber
Posts: 935
Nov 4, 2012 4:11pm
"Can't you see!"Ty Webb;1310920 wrote:Why is Romney campaigning.........on Monday..........with The Marshall Tucker Band??
bases_loaded
Posts: 6,912
Nov 4, 2012 4:56pm
UnSkewed Polling Data
Sunday, November 04, 2012 5:03:43 PM |
||||||||
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE | Skew | ind. voters | Obama(D) | Romney(R) | Spread |
| UnSkewed Avg. | 10/22 - 11/1 | -- | -- | +3.6 D | +8.4 R | 45.8 | 50.0 | Romney +4.2 |
| CBS News/NY Times | 10/25 - 10/28 | 563 | 4.0 | +5 D | +12 R | 47.0 | 49.0 | Romney +2 |
| QStarNews | 10/25 - 10/28 | 2708 | 1.88 | +0 D | +12 R | 46.0 | 52.0 | Romney +6 |
| Pew Research | 10/24 - 10/28 | 1495 | 2.9 | +1 D | +8 R | 47.0 | 48.0 | Romney +1 |
| ABC News/Wash. Post | 10/29 - 11/1 | 1259 LV | 3.5 | +7 D | +8 R | 47.0 | 51.0 | Romney +4 |
| IBD/TIPP | 10/22 - 10/27 | 930 LV | 3.5 | +7 D | +6 R | 43.0 | 50.0 | Romney +7 |
| Rasmussen | 10/30 - 11/1 | 1500 LV | 3.0 | +3 D | +12 R est | 46.0 | 50.0 | Romney +4 |
| Gallup | 10/22 - 10/28 | 2700 LV | 2.0 | +1 D | +2 O | 46.0 | 51.0 | Romney +5 |
| Sample: number of voters surveyed LV = likely voters RV = registered voters MoE = margin of error in survey Skew = percent of Democrats over-sampled or percent of independents under sampled Ind. Voters = margin of lead among independent voters in survey spread = percent candidate leads after poll is unskewed |
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Nov 4, 2012 5:16pm
Exactly. That shows you what this would be with an even turnout.
But I think an even turnout is optimistic. It won't be D+8 like in most of these polls, but I think maybe more like D+2, which should still equate to a Romney win, but could come down to OH where D+3/4 might be enough.
But I think an even turnout is optimistic. It won't be D+8 like in most of these polls, but I think maybe more like D+2, which should still equate to a Romney win, but could come down to OH where D+3/4 might be enough.
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Nov 4, 2012 5:18pm
And if Obama does win OH then we should all be abhorred at using taxpayer money to buy an election.
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Nov 4, 2012 5:28pm
You guys are seriously buying into unskewedpolls.com???
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Nov 4, 2012 5:32pm
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/04/obama-romney-swing-states-poll-/1680827/
O erases a 4 point R lead
O erases a 4 point R lead
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Nov 4, 2012 5:38pm
YouGov's last national poll surveyed 36,472 people!
O+2
O+2
bases_loaded
Posts: 6,912
Nov 4, 2012 5:40pm
Redskins lost at home.
Election overv
Election overv
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Nov 4, 2012 5:46pm
It's going to be a late election night for everyone. I can't figure out who's going to win.
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Nov 4, 2012 5:48pm
HOnestly....I don't think its going to be that late. I think whoever wins....it'll be called by midnightsleeper;1312396 wrote:It's going to be a late election night for everyone. I can't figure out who's going to win.
ptown_trojans_1
Posts: 7,632
Nov 4, 2012 5:56pm
Yeah, what a crazy oddity.bases_loaded;1312391 wrote:Redskins lost at home.
Election overv
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/11/4/3599808/redskins-rule-presidential-election-2012-panthers-win-mitt-romney-barack-obama
2004 is the only year.
I honestly have no idea about this election. No one can pull ahead and I'm reading/ hearing so many conflicting stories on who is ahead that I would not be surprised if either man won.
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Nov 4, 2012 6:01pm
ptown_trojans_1;1312406 wrote:Yeah, what a crazy oddity.
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2012/11/4/3599808/redskins-rule-presidential-election-2012-panthers-win-mitt-romney-barack-obama
2004 is the only year.
I honestly have no idea about this election. No one can pull ahead and I'm reading/ hearing so many conflicting stories on who is ahead that I would not be surprised if either man won.
I know I'm going to get /gibbyd for this...
But today's polls should give reason to think Obama is likely to win
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Nov 4, 2012 6:16pm
It's not rocket science. If Obama gets 2008 turnout, he wins. If it's more even, it's Romney in a landslide. I think it's likely D+3/4 and pretty much a toss-up.Ty Webb;1312371 wrote:You guys are seriously buying into unskewedpolls.com???
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Nov 4, 2012 6:17pm
You do realize when they "unskew" these polls....they "reskew" them toward Repubs right?gut;1312436 wrote:It's not rocket science. If Obama gets 2008 turnout, he wins. If it's more even, it's Romney in a landslide. I think it's likely D+3/4 and pretty much a toss-up.
bases_loaded
Posts: 6,912
Nov 4, 2012 7:03pm
Ty Webb;1312441 wrote:You do realize when they "unskew" these polls....they "reskew" them toward Repubs right?
Landslide for Romney nigga
sleeper
Posts: 27,879
Nov 4, 2012 7:09pm
Sorry Gibby. I don't care about your opinion.Ty Webb;1312399 wrote:HOnestly....I don't think its going to be that late. I think whoever wins....it'll be called by midnight
bases_loaded
Posts: 6,912
Nov 4, 2012 7:11pm
Ty Webb;1312441 wrote:You do realize when they "unskew" these polls....they "reskew" them toward Repubs right?
If taking the +8 D out is reskewing and not being accurate then ok
jhay78
Posts: 1,917
Nov 4, 2012 9:00pm
George Will and Michael Barone aren't exactly flakes . . . and they think Romney wins comfortably.
I'll let the OC experts dissect that. :rolleyes:
I'll let the OC experts dissect that. :rolleyes:
bases_loaded
Posts: 6,912
Nov 4, 2012 9:01pm
Obs RACISTSjhay78;1312703 wrote:George Will and Michael Barone aren't exactly flakes . . . and they think Romney wins comfortably.
I'll let the OC experts dissect that. :rolleyes:
ts1227
Posts: 12,319
Nov 4, 2012 9:02pm
You're all full of shit.
Hope this helps
Hope this helps
bases_loaded
Posts: 6,912
Nov 4, 2012 9:06pm
I
I Wear Pants
Posts: 16,223
Nov 4, 2012 9:31pm
It does. Genuinely.ts1227;1312706 wrote:You're all full of shit.
Hope this helps