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Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 12:10am
You haven't heard anyone on Fox news say it??like_that;1307716 wrote:I have seen nobody say that on here (other than Quaker Oats), and I have seen nobody say that on Fox News. It is unbelievable how full of shit you are.
Do you acutally watch it?? Hannity,Smith,The Five(minus BB),Rove and others say it daily
And yes...others outside of Quaker have said it
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like_that
Posts: 26,625
Oct 30, 2012 12:12am
I watched fox news all day today since work was cancelled. All day it was "This is going to be a very tight race." Not once did I hear anybody say "Romney is the heavy favorite to win this election." You are just spewing bullshit without any substance. You actually think anyone here believes you watch fox news? You go out finding polls that are in your favor, yet you watch fox news long enough to gain a large enough sample of people essentially saying Romney is "kicking obama's ass"? Excuse me while I LMAOTy Webb;1307721 wrote:You haven't heard anyone on Fox news say it??
Do you acutally watch it?? Hannity,Smith,The Five(minus BB),Rove and others say it daily
And yes...others outside of Quaker have said it
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Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 12:13am
If Rasmussen is so proud of his polls....why doesn't he post crosstabs with them?gut;1307718 wrote:One almost wonders at this point if these polling organizations even bother to call anyone, since they appear to be aiming for a pre-determined result. Notice the big guys who care about their reputation (mainly Rasmussen and Gallup) are starting to normalize their results.
Because many of his state polls are bullshit.
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Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 12:14am
I watch CNN,Fox,MSNBC,and C-Span all daily.like_that;1307723 wrote:I watched fox news all day today since work was cancelled. All day it was "This is going to be a very tight race." Not once did I hear anybody say "Romney is the heavy favorite to win this election." You are just spewing bullshit without any substance. You actually think anyone here believes you watch fox news? You go out finding polls that are in your favor, yet you watch fox news long enough to gain a large enough sample of people essentially saying Romney is "kicking obama's ass"? Excuse me while I LMAO
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mucalum49
Posts: 1,639
Oct 30, 2012 12:15am
BS now but most accurate in 2008?Ty Webb;1307724 wrote:If Rasmussen is so proud of his polls....why doesn't he post crosstabs with them?
Because many of his state polls are bull****.
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf
So this time around we can expect the Mellman Group to come out most accurate?
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like_that
Posts: 26,625
Oct 30, 2012 12:16am
So you are unemployed? No wonder why you want to vote Obama. :rolleyes:Ty Webb;1307725 wrote:I watch CNN,Fox,MSNBC,and C-Span all daily.
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Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 12:17am
Not hardly....but outside of work....I don't much of a life. I choose not to go out and get drunk or high every night. I choose to educate myselflike_that;1307727 wrote:So you are unemployed? No wonder why you want to vote Obama. :rolleyes:
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mucalum49
Posts: 1,639
Oct 30, 2012 12:18am
I've not followed early voting day to day. But my point was voter turnout in comparison to 2 years ago. The GOP looks to have narrowed the early voting advantage that the President saw in 2008 was my main point in posting a rebuttal. The President received 46% of his votes in early voting and won by 2.8% in '08. Not doing the math this late at night but if early voting stays this close it's hard to imagine he wins Florida this time around.Ty Webb;1307717 wrote:Considering the Repubs had a 4 point lead just 3 days ago.....yes..It's something to be proud of
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Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 12:19am
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/mucalum49;1307726 wrote:BS now but most accurate in 2008?
http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll accuracy in the 2008 presidential election.pdf
So this time around we can expect the Mellman Group to come out most accurate?
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like_that
Posts: 26,625
Oct 30, 2012 12:19am
This post was a good laugh. Thanks.Ty Webb;1307728 wrote:Not hardly....but outside of work....I don't much of a life. I choose not to go out and get drunk or high every night. I choose to educate myself
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Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 12:20am
I fully expect him to lose Florida......but its going to be a nailbitermucalum49;1307729 wrote:I've not followed early voting day to day. But my point was voter turnout in comparison to 2 years ago. The GOP looks to have narrowed the early voting advantage that the President saw in 2008 was my main point in posting a rebuttal. The President received 46% of his votes in early voting and won by 2.8% in '08. Not doing the math this late at night but if early voting stays this close it's hard to imagine he wins Florida this time around.
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Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 12:24am
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/264565-poll-obama-leads-romeny-by-52-with-latino-voters
If this turns out to be true....Romney can kiss Nevada and Colorado goodbye,and the race in Florida will be 2000 close
If this turns out to be true....Romney can kiss Nevada and Colorado goodbye,and the race in Florida will be 2000 close
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mucalum49
Posts: 1,639
Oct 30, 2012 12:30am
Don't know Nate Silver outside of the earlier post you had today about him but did a quick google search. Mother community activist, quote that he votes Democrat majority of the time. I found the read on Rassmussen interesting I just can't get that bias taste out of my mouth on that one.
J
jmog
Posts: 6,567
Oct 30, 2012 6:52am
Your reading comprehension sucks Or you are lying take your pick.Ty Webb;1307714 wrote:Pretty much every Repub/Conservative here as been saying for a month Romney is kicking ass and Obama can't win..
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justincredible
Posts: 32,056
Oct 30, 2012 11:41am
I had a dream that Romney won the election. This is super scientific stuff.
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jhay78
Posts: 1,917
Oct 30, 2012 12:21pm
Romney leads by 7 nationally in early voting.
In 2008, Obama led McCain by 15 points in early voting.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/Gallup-Shows-22-point-drop-in-obama-early-voting-advantage
In 2008, Obama led McCain by 15 points in early voting.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/30/Gallup-Shows-22-point-drop-in-obama-early-voting-advantage
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gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 30, 2012 1:07pm
How ironic would it be, after nearly 4 years of campaigning for re-election, if Obama loses because he had to suspend campaigning to actually do the job for a few days (and really only because of appearances).
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fish82
Posts: 4,111
Oct 30, 2012 3:13pm
Obie isn't over 50% in any of the national polls today...not even the ones trying so hard to carry his water.
7 days out...that's not a very encouraging sign.
7 days out...that's not a very encouraging sign.
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like_that
Posts: 26,625
Oct 30, 2012 3:18pm
What about the Mellman group? That is obviously the best poll available.fish82;1308105 wrote:Obie isn't over 50% in any of the national polls today...not even the ones trying so hard to carry his water.
7 days out...that's not a very encouraging sign.
ptown_trojans_1
Posts: 7,632
Oct 30, 2012 3:31pm
Anybody that knows stats and his methodology knows he is pretty damn good.mucalum49;1307737 wrote:Don't know Nate Silver outside of the earlier post you had today about him but did a quick google search. Mother community activist, quote that he votes Democrat majority of the time. I found the read on Rassmussen interesting I just can't get that bias taste out of my mouth on that one.
Don't attack the perceived bias, attack his methodology and try and find holes in it.
As far as I know, he has the one of the best out there.
Bigger point, unless you know stats, going after polling data is pretty dumb. It is like attacking a scientific paper on physics, but not understanding the basic laws.
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se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Oct 30, 2012 3:33pm
I think Mitt takes FLA,VA,OH, and CO for the victory.
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like_that
Posts: 26,625
Oct 30, 2012 3:51pm
I think he will take Iowa as well. Still not sure about Ohio though.se-alum;1308122 wrote:I think Mitt takes FLA,VA,OH, and CO for the victory.
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jhay78
Posts: 1,917
Oct 30, 2012 4:20pm
If Romney wins, get ready for the "Obama supporters were disproportionately kept from getting to the polls because of Hurricane Sandy" argument:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83020.html?hp=f3
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/83020.html?hp=f3
Even though the bulk of the damage was in pretty deep blue states that are pretty much locks for Obama, it wouldn't surprise me if some folks (read: MSNBC types) use this as an excuse if he loses.[LEFT]A 2004 Congressional Research Service report notes that there is no constitutional instruction or federal law on postponing a federal election.
However, the report theorizes that presidential emergency power could be used to delay an election — specifically, if “attacks, disruptions and destruction are so severe and so dangerous in certain localities, particularly in crowded urban areas, that the President under a rule of necessity may look to protect the public safety by federalizing State national guard and restricting movement and activities in such areas which would obviously affect the ability to conduct an election at those sites.”
Congress could also theoretically step in and pass a law or give that power to the president, the report says. Courts have typically left it up to Congress to set election procedures.
[/LEFT]
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majorspark
Posts: 5,122
Oct 30, 2012 4:47pm
If Romney were to take a close one in Pennsylvania this will crop up. Power outages in and around Philadelphia are not expected to be completely restore for seven days.jhay78;1308153 wrote:Even though the bulk of the damage was in pretty deep blue states that are pretty much locks for Obama, it wouldn't surprise me if some folks (read: MSNBC types) use this as an excuse if he loses.
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gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 30, 2012 4:50pm
But I would think this favors Obama. Since Obama supposedly has such an insurmountable lead in early voting, suppressing votes on election day because of power outages should only help him. There's going to be, I think, a larger percentage of Repubs voting on Tuesday.