majorspark
Posts: 5,122
Oct 30, 2012 5:24pm
It may all I am saying is if Obama looses a close one in PA it will be brought up.
Heretic
Posts: 18,820
Oct 30, 2012 5:51pm
Ah, whining about the weather and its effect on voting will at least be a change of pace from the past few years and all that whining over the liberal media and its agenda's effect on voting.
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 7:38pm
You can make fun of me all you want.....but with the polling that has come out today in Ohio....it's clear the Rasmussen poll in Ohio was an outlier.
It's pretty clear a week out....President Obama has the momentum in Ohio.
It's pretty clear a week out....President Obama has the momentum in Ohio.
se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Oct 30, 2012 7:40pm
Oh gibby.
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 30, 2012 7:43pm
Rasmussen corrects for oversampling. Your other polls are not.Ty Webb;1308268 wrote:You can make fun of me all you want.....but with the polling that has come out today in Ohio....it's clear the Rasmussen poll in Ohio was an outlier.
It's pretty clear a week out....President Obama has the momentum in Ohio.
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 8:10pm
Are you also factoring in their +2 R bias?gut;1308274 wrote:Rasmussen corrects for oversampling. Your other polls are not.
pmoney25
Posts: 1,787
Oct 30, 2012 8:15pm
I don't care who wins. Obama sucks. Romney sucks. All empires eventually end, maybe the next one will actually learn from history and not fuck it up.
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 30, 2012 8:15pm
Do you understand what it means to "correct oversampling"?Ty Webb;1308294 wrote:Are you also factoring in their +2 R bias?
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 8:17pm
I know exactly what it means....gut;1308303 wrote:Do you understand what it means to "correct oversampling"?
If he is so good...why is there NO other poll to back him up
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 8:25pm
gut....want a poll that show Obama ahead that doesn't oversample?
NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Ohio Likely Voters Poll
10/27/2012 thru 10/29/2012
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 825 likely voters in Ohio for Newsmax.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 825 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 17% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+.
And this poll likely VASTLY understates Latino turnout
|
NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Presidential Two Way Horserace |
|||||
|
10/7-10/9
|
10/8-10/10
|
10/9-10/11
|
10/26-10/28
|
10/27-10/29
|
|
| Obama |
45.6%
|
44.7%
|
44.8%
|
49.5%
|
48.9%
|
| Romney |
42.2%
|
44.1%
|
43.7%
|
45.9%
|
45.2%
|
| Undecided |
12.1%
|
11.2%
|
11.4%
|
4.6%
|
5.9%
|
|
|
|||||
|
NewsmaxZogby Ohio Tracking Poll
Presidential Five Way Horserace |
|||||
|
10/7-10/9
|
10/8-10/10
|
10/9-10/11
|
10/26-10/28
|
10/27-10/29
|
|
| Obama |
47.0%
|
45.9%
|
45.5%
|
48.2%
|
46.8%
|
| Romney |
42.6%
|
44.3%
|
44.9%
|
44.0%
|
43.6%
|
| Johnson |
3.0%
|
3.0%
|
3.4%
|
2.6%
|
2.5%
|
| Stein |
0.8%
|
0.8%
|
1.2%
|
1.3%
|
1.4%
|
| Goode |
1.1%
|
1.0%
|
1.1%
|
0.7%
|
1.3%
|
| Undecided |
5.6%
|
5.0%
|
3.8%
|
3.2%
|
4.4%
|
NewsmaxZogby Tracking Poll Methodology
Ohio Likely Voters Poll
10/27/2012 thru 10/29/2012
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 825 likely voters in Ohio for Newsmax.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 825 is +/- 3.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
The NewsmaxZogby Poll of Ohio Likely Voters sampled 37% Democrats, 37% Republicans and 26% independents; 78% white, 5% Hispanic, and 12% African American; and 17% age 18-29, 38% age 30-49, 28% age 50-64, and 17% age 65+.
And this poll likely VASTLY understates Latino turnout
fish82
Posts: 4,111
Oct 30, 2012 8:41pm
He's called one election fairly close. Is model is sound, but its only as good as the data he feeds it. As has been pretty well established, most of the polling data he's entering this cycle is pretty crappy.ptown_trojans_1;1308120 wrote:Anybody that knows stats and his methodology knows he is pretty damn good.
Don't attack the perceived bias, attack his methodology and try and find holes in it.
As far as I know, he has the one of the best out there.
Bigger point, unless you know stats, going after polling data is pretty dumb. It is like attacking a scientific paper on physics, but not understanding the basic laws.
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 30, 2012 8:47pm
Seriously, when Obama loses this election you should be banned from ever posting a poll on here again. And you should write a nasty email to Campaign HQ for being made a schill, for being used and exploited to go around and lie to people.Ty Webb;1308320 wrote:gut....want a poll that show Obama ahead that doesn't oversample?
You do realize that just because a poll doesn't oversample doesn't mean it's still not a shitty poll. And I have no idea what rocks you are digging some of these up from under.
se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Oct 30, 2012 9:25pm
He's definitely going 5-6 Google pages deep for his info.gut;1308350 wrote:Seriously, when Obama loses this election you should be banned from ever posting a poll on here again. And you should write a nasty email to Campaign HQ for being made a schill, for being used and exploited to go around and lie to people.
You do realize that just because a poll doesn't oversample doesn't mean it's still not a shitty poll. And I have no idea what rocks you are digging some of these up from under.
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 30, 2012 9:29pm
No he's not. That's centralized. He's getting a daily email blast with the propaganda, errrrr, I mean talking points.se-alum;1308398 wrote:He's definitely going 5-6 Google pages deep for his info.
J
jmog
Posts: 6,567
Oct 30, 2012 10:28pm
Obviously not as evidence by your reading comprehension on most political threads.Ty Webb;1307728 wrote:Not hardly....but outside of work....I don't much of a life. I choose not to go out and get drunk or high every night. I choose to educate myself
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 30, 2012 10:38pm
ccrunner609;1308437 wrote:http://www.lifenews.com/2012/10/30/romney-early-voting-lead-could-portend-election-victory/
regardless of polls, Mitt is up 7% on poeople that have already voted, read the last paragraph. History will repeat itself
Hmmm...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-29/democrats-hold-early-voting-advantage-over-republicans.html
tk421
Posts: 8,500
Oct 30, 2012 11:08pm
I love all this back and forth crap about my party holding the early advantage over your party. Like polls and exit data mean shit. It's not even November yet, Ty needs to get a hold of himself or he is going to jizz all over his computer before Obama even has a chance to win reelection.
B
BoatShoes
Posts: 5,703
Oct 31, 2012 10:52am
Like I said I don't really know anything about polling but...as far as I can tell, wouldn't it be more biased to just neglect certain polls because you think they're "crappy" as opposed to aggregating them and taking the averages? I understand the concerns about "over-sampling" but I would think pollsters who have to have their work judged by the free-market wouldn't fail so bad on that front if it was really that valid of a concern.fish82;1308345 wrote:He's called one election fairly close. Is model is sound, but its only as good as the data he feeds it. As has been pretty well established, most of the polling data he's entering this cycle is pretty crappy.
In other words, it seems like, if poll aggregation is not a good method to use in this election, we're talking about systematic, widespread polling failure by multiple polling organizations all of which are self-interested in not having such systematic, widespread failure.
Perhaps I'm naive but I find it hard to believe that so many pollsters could be so bad at their jobs.
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 31, 2012 10:55am
First off, garbage-in, garbage-out.BoatShoes;1308756 wrote:Like I said I don't really know anything about polling but...as far as I can tell, wouldn't it be more biased to just neglect certain polls because you think they're "crappy" as opposed to aggregating them and taking the averages? I understand the concerns about "over-sampling" but I would think pollsters who have to have their work judged by the free-market wouldn't fail so bad on that front if it was really that valid of a concern.
Second, many of these pollsters are not in the business of accuracy but in producing a desired result for their client.
S
superman
Posts: 3,582
Oct 31, 2012 10:57am
There ya go.BoatShoes;1308756 wrote:Like I said I don't really know anything
se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Oct 31, 2012 12:30pm
Exactly, their business is to convince people that the election isn't close, and you're vote won't matter, so why go to the polls. This is why you do your research and find the polls that have been most accurate in the past. I follow Rasmussen, because it has been the most accurate in the past, not because they may have Romney leading in a swing state.gut;1308764 wrote:First off, garbage-in, garbage-out.
Second, many of these pollsters are not in the business of accuracy but in producing a desired result for their client.
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Oct 31, 2012 1:18pm
This election is clearly over /sarcasm.
http://www.businessinsider.com/michigan-poll-obama-romney-swing-state-ohio-detroit-news-2012-10
http://www.businessinsider.com/michigan-poll-obama-romney-swing-state-ohio-detroit-news-2012-10
TedSheckler
Posts: 3,974
Oct 31, 2012 1:20pm
My insider poll says that's fake.
Heretic
Posts: 18,820
Oct 31, 2012 1:25pm
My insider poll is working on the most important questions pertaining to the election. Namely that depending on who wins, will either Gibby or Quaker off themselves in disappointment/disgust? And if so, how much will that improve the average IQ of American citizens?TedSheckler;1308983 wrote:My insider poll says that's fake.
Q
QuakerOats
Posts: 8,740
Oct 31, 2012 2:40pm
^^ If something happens to me I hereby will my share of newly created obama debt, $34,000, ($17,000 x 2, since half do not pay income tax) to you and Ty and Isadore - $11,333 apiece; thanks for picking up my tab, hope it's not too much of a setback.