Electoral College Guess

Politics 562 replies 11,246 views
Ty Webb's avatar
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 25, 2012 9:50pm
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/25/romney_downplays_early_vote_while_seeking_it.html


"Facing a massive early voting deficit less than two weeks out from election day, the Romney campaign is projecting a mixed message as the candidate works to keep alive his claim to momentum," McKay Coppins reports.

"In memos and press gaggles, Republicans insist they're so far behind by strategic choice -- focusing their efforts on helping unlikely voters get to the polls now, and leaving their enthusiastic base to fend for themselves on November 6."

"But as Mitt Romney and Senator Rob Portman zig-zagged across Ohio Thursday, they repeatedly made a point of pleading for early votes from the cheering partisans who gathered at their rallies -- the very group the campaign says they're not trying to get to the polls."
se-alum's avatar
se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Oct 25, 2012 10:05pm
Ty Webb;1304540 wrote:http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/25/romney_downplays_early_vote_while_seeking_it.html


"Facing a massive early voting deficit less than two weeks out from election day, the Romney campaign is projecting a mixed message as the candidate works to keep alive his claim to momentum," McKay Coppins reports.

"In memos and press gaggles, Republicans insist they're so far behind by strategic choice -- focusing their efforts on helping unlikely voters get to the polls now, and leaving their enthusiastic base to fend for themselves on November 6."

"But as Mitt Romney and Senator Rob Portman zig-zagged across Ohio Thursday, they repeatedly made a point of pleading for early votes from the cheering partisans who gathered at their rallies -- the very group the campaign says they're not trying to get to the polls."
LOL...so what is the point you're trying to make by posting this?
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 25, 2012 10:13pm
LOL, what Ty refuses to acknowledge is early voting was significantly wider in 2008 when Obama got just 51.38% in Ohio. Compare to 2008 and early voting indicates his '08 winning margin is gone.

You can shuttle likely voters to the polls early (now we know why only 20+ days was such a big deal for Dems), but you just can't get the unlikely voters to win you the election.

Obama is definitely winning at hand-holding his voters all the way to the polls. God forbid they'd have to get off their ass and go vote on their own Nov. 6
I
I Wear Pants
Posts: 16,223
Oct 26, 2012 1:21am
gut;1304551 wrote:LOL, what Ty refuses to acknowledge is early voting was significantly wider in 2008 when Obama got just 51.38% in Ohio. Compare to 2008 and early voting indicates his '08 winning margin is gone.

You can shuttle likely voters to the polls early (now we know why only 20+ days was such a big deal for Dems), but you just can't get the unlikely voters to win you the election.

Obama is definitely winning at hand-holding his voters all the way to the polls. God forbid they'd have to get off their ass and go vote on their own Nov. 6
Yeah, what the hell has this country come to, people offering to drive others to exercise their right to vote? Might as well burn up the constitution while they're at it. :rolleyes:
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 26, 2012 2:44am
I Wear Pants;1304622 wrote:Yeah, what the hell has this country come to, people offering to drive others to exercise their right to vote? Might as well burn up the constitution while they're at it. :rolleyes:
Maybe if it was bipartisan it would be a little more on the up and up. Nor should someone be voting for a certain candidate because a nice young man picked them up, or maybe a meal was involved...
S
sportchampps
Posts: 7,361
Oct 26, 2012 2:59am
My mom said Kennedy supporters did the same thing in her town in West Virginia when she was younger. She said they would drive them to the polls and give them 5$ to vote for Kennedy. $5 was a lot of money to the people in her town
ZWICK 4 PREZ's avatar
ZWICK 4 PREZ
Posts: 7,733
Oct 26, 2012 6:11am
sportchampps;1304638 wrote:My mom said Kennedy supporters did the same thing in her town in West Virginia when she was younger. She said they would drive them to the polls and give them 5$ to vote for Kennedy. $5 was a lot of money to the people in her town
Your mom heard that or was paid $5?
fish82's avatar
fish82
Posts: 4,111
Oct 26, 2012 7:43am
I Wear Pants;1304622 wrote:Yeah, what the hell has this country come to, people offering to drive others to exercise their right to vote? Might as well burn up the constitution while they're at it. :rolleyes:
If is was that important to them to exercise said right, most of them are perfectly capable of getting their own asses to the polls.
se-alum's avatar
se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Oct 26, 2012 8:23am
gut;1304633 wrote:Maybe if it was bipartisan it would be a little more on the up and up. Nor should someone be voting for a certain candidate because a nice young man picked them up, or maybe a meal was involved...
This is the biggest problem with it.
fish82's avatar
fish82
Posts: 4,111
Oct 26, 2012 10:38am
Looks like Rassy is going to have Wisconsin 49-49 today. Significant, in that if Mittens can't turn Ohio, then WI is a must have.
Q
QuakerOats
Posts: 8,740
Oct 26, 2012 10:55am
I'm trending now toward 321 for Mr. Romney, up from 301.

When you have double digit shifts in support, that is titanic.
Ty Webb's avatar
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 26, 2012 1:06pm
You're dreaming Quaker....

Ohio is drifting away from Gov.Romney
se-alum's avatar
se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Oct 26, 2012 1:06pm
I think Benghazi and Obama's continued juvenile attitude have greatly attributed to Romney's momentum. The Benghazi thing keeps getting worse, so it will only get worse for Obama.
se-alum's avatar
se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Oct 26, 2012 1:26pm
Romney now buying Ad time in Minnesota.
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 26, 2012 1:28pm
se-alum;1304877 wrote:Romney now buying Ad time in Minnesota.
Interesting. I don't think MN is in play, but I guess if you win you still want people who don't vote for you to be ok with it.

The other possibility is there's no available ad time left in the key swing states. I think I saw that somewhere the other day.
Ty Webb's avatar
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 26, 2012 1:38pm
gut;1304879 wrote:Interesting. I don't think MN is in play, but I guess if you win you still want people who don't vote for you to be ok with it.

The other possibility is there's no available ad time left in the key swing states. I think I saw that somewhere the other day.
I agree with your second statement gut....could they reach Wisconsin voters from Minnesota ads?
M
Manhattan Buckeye
Posts: 7,566
Oct 26, 2012 1:47pm
^^^

Geography much? Hello Duluth!

Where do you think SE Ohio gets its tv feed from? Huntington and Charleston, West Virginia. WV is heavily for Romney (which is weird because for most of my life WV was a solid DEM state - guess things change) but I could see the GOP putting money into those service providers, if it wasn't for the fact that Romney will carry SE Ohio anyway.
G
gut
Posts: 15,058
Oct 26, 2012 1:47pm
Ty Webb;1304887 wrote:I agree with your second statement gut....could they reach Wisconsin voters from Minnesota ads?
Theoretically the locals affiliates might go across state lines on the margin. I really don't know. Either way, Romney must have money to burn.
se-alum's avatar
se-alum
Posts: 13,948
Oct 26, 2012 1:52pm
Another benefit in purchasing time in Minneapolis is that you get your message seen in parts of Wisconsin. The Minneapolis market reaches approximately 5% of neighboring Wisconsin, where there is a fierce ad battle ongoing. CNN rates Wisconsin as a "toss-up" state.
...
Ty Webb's avatar
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 26, 2012 3:15pm
President Obama had a steady 2 point lead in Ohio...if that holds over the next 7 days President Obama will be re-elected
like_that's avatar
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Oct 26, 2012 3:20pm
Ty Webb;1304920 wrote:President Obama had a steady 2 point lead in Ohio...if that holds over the next 7 days President Obama will be re-elected
Where did you get that from? MTV.com?
Ty Webb's avatar
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 26, 2012 3:25pm
like_that;1304925 wrote:Where did you get that from? MTV.com?
Every Ohio poll in the last week had the President up 2-3. If that holds..Obama wins Ohio. He wins Ohio...he wins the election. Simple as that
like_that's avatar
like_that
Posts: 26,625
Oct 26, 2012 3:34pm
Ty Webb;1304926 wrote:Every Ohio poll in the last week had the President up 2-3. If that holds..Obama wins Ohio. He wins Ohio...he wins the election. Simple as that
Yes gibby, we know how important Ohio is, you don't need to repeat it. We also know you are speaking out of your ass. Rasmussen has Ohio tied. Nice fail though.
Ty Webb's avatar
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 26, 2012 3:56pm
like_that;1304931 wrote:Yes gibby, we know how important Ohio is, you don't need to repeat it. We also know you are speaking out of your ass. Rasmussen has Ohio tied. Nice fail though.

Lets see....am I going to trust a pollster who has it tied(with a +2 Repub bias) or a pollster that's run by a former Romney advisor that had Obama up 2(with a +3 Repub bias)?? Hmm that's a toughie

Face it....Obama is leading in Ohio
Ty Webb's avatar
Ty Webb
Posts: 2,798
Oct 26, 2012 4:01pm
CNN had Obama +4 in Ohio

Also has him hitting 50%