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BCS Bowl Projections

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D

dave

Senior Member

4,558 posts
Nov 14, 2010 4:20 AM
I don't see both Boise and TCU getting a BCS game this year unless 1 is in the title game. There are just too many great programs that will have 1 or 2 losses. Stanford would be a great pick for the Fiesta to match up with Nebraska.
Nov 13, 2010 11:20pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 14, 2010 4:28 AM
There will be political pressure to put them both in BCS bowls, and unless you have a big name program sitting out there like Ohio State or Oklahoma or Nebraska, they would rather just take the mid major and avoid the headache. Stanford isn't going to bring any fans or ratings to anything except the Rose Bowl. If one of the mid majors makes the title game, they will take Stanford, but none of the other bowls want them.
Nov 13, 2010 11:28pm
C

cats gone wild

Senior Member

2,651 posts
Nov 14, 2010 4:34 AM
Cleveland Buck;557372 wrote:Auto Bids:
Oregon
Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
Virginia Tech (tied to Orange Bowl)
West Virginia
Auburn
Nebraska (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
Boise State (Highest Ranked Non AQ in BCS Top 8, tied to Rose Bowl if it loses a team to the BCS Title Game)
LSU (AQ BCS Top 4)

Selection Order
Rose Bowl selects Boise State to replace Oregon (BCS #1)
Sugar Bowl selects LSU to replace Auburn (BCS #2)
Sugar Bowl selects Wisconsin
Orange Bowl selects West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl selects TCU

BCS National Championship
Oregon (12-0, 9-0, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Auburn (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)

Rose Bowl
Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. Boise State (12-0, 8-0, At Large)

Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At Large)

Sugar Bowl
LSU (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (11-2, 8-0, ACC Champion) vs. West Virginia (9-3, 5-2, Big East Champion)

Its too bad the ACC and Big East have to waste two BCS spots. Im hoping for Auburn to lose to Bama and USCe. I wouldnt be surprised if Arky beats LSU. I really hope Oregon chokes, as I feel they are very overrated, but I dont see it happening. I want to see Boise or TCU to make title game to throw the BCS for a loop.
Nov 13, 2010 11:34pm
Leonardo's avatar

Leonardo

Senior Member

4,986 posts
Nov 14, 2010 4:45 AM
So, looking at your projections - you have Iowa beating Ohio State next Saturday?

And, can you post a link that says Boise State is tied to the Rose Bowl if the RB loses a team to the National Championship? I'm not doubting you. I've just never heard of it.
Nov 13, 2010 11:45pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 14, 2010 4:47 AM
Auto Bids:
Oregon
Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
Virginia Tech (tied to Orange Bowl)
West Virginia
Auburn
Nebraska (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
Boise State (Highest Ranked Non AQ in BCS Top 8, tied to Rose Bowl if it loses a team to the BCS Title Game)
LSU (AQ BCS Top 4)

Selection Order
Rose Bowl selects Boise State to replace Oregon (BCS #1)
Sugar Bowl selects LSU to replace Auburn (BCS #2)
Sugar Bowl selects Oklahoma
Orange Bowl selects Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl selects West Virginia

BCS National Championship
Oregon (12-0, 9-0, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Auburn (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)

Rose Bowl
Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. Boise State (12-0, 8-0, At Large)

Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. West Virginia (9-3, 5-2, Big East Champion)

Sugar Bowl
LSU (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Oklahoma (10-2, 6-2, At Large)

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (11-2, 8-0, ACC Champion) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)
Nov 13, 2010 11:47pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 14, 2010 4:48 AM
Leonardo;557440 wrote:So, looking at your projections - you have Iowa beating Ohio State next Saturday?

And, can you post a link that says Boise State is tied to the Rose Bowl if the RB loses a team to the National Championship? I'm not doubting you. I've just never heard of it.

Yes I have Iowa beating Ohio State. And during these next 4 years, the first time the Rose Bowl loses one of its tie-ins to the national championship, they must select the highest ranked non-AQ team to replace them, provided the highest ranked non-AQ team is not in the BCS Championship game.
Nov 13, 2010 11:48pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 14, 2010 4:50 AM
I had to change my predictions because I forgot all about Oklahoma, and I have them beating Oklahoma State later on in the year which will guarantee they finish in the top 14 of the BCS standings. They would get picked in a heartbeat over TCU even if TCU was 30-0.
Nov 13, 2010 11:50pm
Leonardo's avatar

Leonardo

Senior Member

4,986 posts
Nov 14, 2010 4:54 AM
Cleveland Buck;557447 wrote:Yes I have Iowa beating Ohio State. And during these next 4 years, the first time the Rose Bowl loses one of its tie-ins to the national championship, they must select the highest ranked non-AQ team to replace them, provided the highest ranked non-AQ team is not in the BCS Championship game.

Gotcha, but I do ponder - what if the highest non-AQ team is like 21st in the BCS standings? Is it just if there is one non-AQ in the top 14?
Nov 13, 2010 11:54pm
Leonardo's avatar

Leonardo

Senior Member

4,986 posts
Nov 14, 2010 5:00 AM
BCS National Championship game:
(1) Auburn vs. (2) Oregon

Rose Bowl:
Boise State vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl:
Nebraska vs. West Virginia

Sugar Bowl:
LSU vs. Wisconsin

Orange Bowl:
Virginia Tech vs. TCU
Nov 14, 2010 12:00am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 14, 2010 5:01 AM
Leonardo;557454 wrote:Gotcha, but I do ponder - what if the highest non-AQ team is like 21st in the BCS standings? Is it just if there is one non-AQ in the top 14?

First of all, they only have to do it once, so if they pick a mid major this year, they won't have to do it anymore. Second, I'm sure the non AQ team has to be an autobid, meaning they are in the top 12 or ranked higher than a BCS conference champion.
Nov 14, 2010 12:01am
ts1227's avatar

ts1227

Senior Member

12,319 posts
Nov 14, 2010 5:02 AM
Leonardo;557454 wrote:Gotcha, but I do ponder - what if the highest non-AQ team is like 21st in the BCS standings? Is it just if there is one non-AQ in the top 14?

The Non-AQ has to meet the criteria to be selected for a BCS bowl for the Rose Bowl thing to kick in.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4359924
Nov 14, 2010 12:02am
dwccrew's avatar

dwccrew

Not Banned

7,817 posts
Nov 14, 2010 8:42 PM
Leonardo;557459 wrote:BCS National Championship game:
(1) Auburn vs. (2) Oregon

Rose Bowl:
Boise State vs. Ohio State

Fiesta Bowl:
Nebraska vs. West Virginia

Sugar Bowl:
LSU vs. Wisconsin

Orange Bowl:
Virginia Tech vs. TCU

How do you have Wisky in the Sugar Bowl and Ohio State in the Rose Bowl? Wisky is ranked higher in the BCS and beat OSU heads up. I am not seeing how this would happen. Is it if OSU, Wisky and MSU all win out Wisky can't go to the Rose Bowl over MSU because of the head to head matchup, but MSU can't go over OSU because OSU is ranked higher in the BCS? I am not getting how you have that matchup?
Nov 14, 2010 3:42pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 14, 2010 10:14 PM
dwccrew;558078 wrote:How do you have Wisky in the Sugar Bowl and Ohio State in the Rose Bowl? Wisky is ranked higher in the BCS and beat OSU heads up. I am not seeing how this would happen. Is it if OSU, Wisky and MSU all win out Wisky can't go to the Rose Bowl over MSU because of the head to head matchup, but MSU can't go over OSU because OSU is ranked higher in the BCS? I am not getting how you have that matchup?

If MSU/Wisconsin/OSU all finish at 7-1, the team highest ranked in the BCS will go to the Rose Bowl. He must have Wisconsin losing one of their final two games or Ohio State jumping them in the BCS.
Nov 14, 2010 5:14pm
darbypitcher22's avatar

darbypitcher22

Senior Member

8,000 posts
Nov 14, 2010 10:55 PM
Ohio State is not going to Pasadena... can we just forget about that?
Nov 14, 2010 5:55pm
V

vball10set

paying it forward

24,795 posts
Nov 14, 2010 11:06 PM
darbypitcher22;558339 wrote:Ohio State is not going to Pasadena... can we just forget about that?
once they're mathematically eliminated, we will--I promise
Nov 14, 2010 6:06pm
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dwccrew

Not Banned

7,817 posts
Nov 14, 2010 11:43 PM
Cleveland Buck;558295 wrote:If MSU/Wisconsin/OSU all finish at 7-1, the team highest ranked in the BCS will go to the Rose Bowl. He must have Wisconsin losing one of their final two games or Ohio State jumping them in the BCS.

That's what is confusing, if Wisky loses 1 more, I don't see how they get an at-large bid (assuming OSU and MSU win out).
Nov 14, 2010 6:43pm
E

enigmaax

Senior Member

4,511 posts
Nov 15, 2010 12:44 AM
dwccrew;558397 wrote:That's what is confusing, if Wisky loses 1 more, I don't see how they get an at-large bid (assuming OSU and MSU win out).

Agreed. Doubt Wisky is gonna get a bid with 2 losses. And I can't see how OSU's computer rating is going to make up all that ground on Wisky considering they both have Michigan plus a 7-3 team left (and OSU was already WAY behind in the computers last week).
Nov 14, 2010 7:44pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

Senior Member

2,798 posts
Nov 15, 2010 4:09 AM
BCS National Championship
#1 Boise State vs #2 LSU

Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs Stanford

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs Wisconson

Rose Bowl
Michigan State vs Oregon

Auburn loses to Alabama but wins SEC championship
Oregon loses to Oregon State but still wins Pac-10 Championship
Nov 14, 2010 11:09pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 15, 2010 4:13 AM
Ty Webb;558807 wrote:BCS National Championship
#1 Boise State vs #2 LSU

Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs Oklahoma

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech vs West Virginia

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs Wisconson

Rose Bowl
Michigan State vs Oregon

Auburn loses to Alabama but wins SEC championship
Oregon loses to Oregon State but still wins Pac-10 Championship

Oklahoma is so dominant they are going to play in 2 BCS bowls?
Nov 14, 2010 11:13pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

Senior Member

2,798 posts
Nov 15, 2010 4:15 AM
Cleveland Buck;558811 wrote:Oklahoma is so dominant they are going to play in 2 BCS bowls?

Fixed buck
Nov 14, 2010 11:15pm
ytownfootball's avatar

ytownfootball

Bold faced liar...

6,978 posts
Nov 15, 2010 4:17 AM
Can't believe someone even paid enough attention to a gibby post to find error...so common they often go ignored
Nov 14, 2010 11:17pm
Leonardo's avatar

Leonardo

Senior Member

4,986 posts
Nov 15, 2010 5:38 AM
enigmaax;558480 wrote:Agreed. Doubt Wisky is gonna get a bid with 2 losses. And I can't see how OSU's computer rating is going to make up all that ground on Wisky considering they both have Michigan plus a 7-3 team left (and OSU was already WAY behind in the computers last week).

They both have Michigan and they both have a 7-3 team left. In my projections, I do have Ohio State jumping Wisconsin. Ohio State is only .07 behind Wisconsin the computers and only .0584 behind Wisconsin the BCS standings. Ohio State might have been hurt the most with Iowa losing yesterday.
Nov 15, 2010 12:38am
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dazedconfused

Senior Member

2,662 posts
Nov 15, 2010 5:58 AM
just going off the latest standings:

bcs - oregon/auburn
rose - wisky/tcu
fiesta - nebraska/
sugar -
orange - virginia tech/west virginia?

so that leaves boise, lsu, stanford and ohio state competing for the three remaining spots. i can't see lsu or ohio state being deserving and being left out, so that leaves either stanford or boise for the final spot. so one of these undefeated non-aq teams might get the shaft
Nov 15, 2010 12:58am
E

enigmaax

Senior Member

4,511 posts
Nov 15, 2010 12:23 PM
Leonardo;558917 wrote:They both have Michigan and they both have a 7-3 team left. In my projections, I do have Ohio State jumping Wisconsin. Ohio State is only .07 behind Wisconsin the computers and only .0584 behind Wisconsin the BCS standings. Ohio State might have been hurt the most with Iowa losing yesterday.

I just don't think it is going to happen if they both win out. Ohio State may pass them in the computers (looks like computers still like Iowa) but I don't think it'll be enough to overcome the voters.

An LSU loss would likely move OSU much closer to Wisky in the polls, though. Or...a big jump by LSU toward the top would help as well. The key for OSU being knocking down that differential of 90-140 votes in each poll - and considering they moved in the wrong direction this week in both (Wisconsin picked up points, OSU lost points) I don't think it'll happen just by having both win out.
Nov 15, 2010 7:23am
P

pinstriper

Senior Member

225 posts
Nov 15, 2010 1:20 PM
LSU will lose to ARK in Little Rock in 2 weeks. That leaves ARK at 10-2, LSU at 10-2. The interesting thing will be how far they will drop. It could leave 3 BigTen teams with 1 loss, a Stanford team with 1 loss, and Boise State.
That puts Wisc in the ROSE, and OSU in the SUGAR vs. Boise. It also places Stanford in the ORANGE vs. Nebraska/Okl St.
Nov 15, 2010 8:20am