BCS Bowl Projections

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Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Oct 16, 2010 10:48 PM
This is how I think it will play out, not how I feel it should play out. I also made a mistake in an earlier thread about Iowa winning a 3-way tiebreaker in the Big Ten. They would drop out of the comparison because they would have a worse overall record, so the bid would come down to the head-to-head matchup between Michigan State and Wisconsin.

Auto Bids:
Oregon (tied to Rose Bowl)
Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
Florida State (tied to Orange Bowl)
West Virginia
Alabama
Oklahoma
Boise State

Selection Order
Fiesta Bowl selects Nebraska to replace Oklahoma (BCS #1)
Sugar Bowl selects LSU to replace Alabama (BCS #2)
Sugar Bowl selects Wisconsin
Orange Bowl selects West Virginia
Fiesta Bowl selects Boise State

BCS National Championship
Oklahoma (13-0, 8-0, Big XII Champion) vs. Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)

Rose Bowl
Oregon (11-1, 8-1, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion)

Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large) vs. Boise State (12-0, 8-0, At Large)

Sugar Bowl
LSU (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)

Orange Bowl
Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. West Virginia (11-1, 7-0, Big East Champion)
Oct 16, 2010 10:48pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Oct 24, 2010 9:46 PM
Auto Bids:
Oregon (tied to Rose Bowl)
Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
Florida State (tied to Orange Bowl)
West Virginia
Alabama
Oklahoma (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
Boise State

Selection Order
Sugar Bowl selects Auburn to replace Alabama (BCS #1)
Sugar Bowl selects Nebraska
Orange Bowl selects Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl selects West Virginia

BCS National Championship
Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion) vs. Boise State (13-0, 8-0, At Large)

Rose Bowl
Oregon (11-1, 8-1, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion)

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. West Virginia (10-2, 6-1, Big East Champion)

Sugar Bowl
Auburn (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large)

Orange Bowl
Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)
Oct 24, 2010 9:46pm
darbypitcher22's avatar

darbypitcher22

Senior Member

8,000 posts
Oct 24, 2010 9:54 PM
i'm sorry, with as weak as the Big East is, that conference's champion doesn't deserve a BCS bid. Especially if that league's champion lost to freakin' Syracuse
Oct 24, 2010 9:54pm
Ty Webb's avatar

Ty Webb

Senior Member

2,798 posts
Oct 24, 2010 10:13 PM
BCS National Championship
#1 Boise State vs #2 Alabama

Rose Bowl
Oregon vs Michigan State

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma vs Utah

Sugar Bowl
Auburn vs Florida State

Orange Bowl
Wisconsin vs West Virginia
Oct 24, 2010 10:13pm
believer's avatar

believer

Senior Member

8,153 posts
Oct 25, 2010 5:02 AM
Cleveland Buck;531450 wrote:BCS National Championship
Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion) vs. Boise State (13-0, 8-0, At Large)

Rose Bowl
Oregon (11-1, 8-1, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion)

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. West Virginia (10-2, 6-1, Big East Champion)

Sugar Bowl
Auburn (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large)

Orange Bowl
Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)

Looks about right....and in the best of the doesn't mean squat non-BCS bowls:

Capital One Bowl
Ohio State (11-1, 7-1 Big 10 co-champion) vs. LSU (10-2, 6-2 SEC)
Oct 25, 2010 5:02am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Oct 31, 2010 10:36 AM
Thoughts:
Arizona is the only somewhat legitimate defense Oregon will face in the Pac-10, and they might not have their QB, so I can't pick that upset yet.

I still have Michigan State winning the bid in a three way tie for the Big Ten title with Iowa and Wisconsin.

Auto Bids:
Oregon
Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
Florida State (tied to Orange Bowl)
Pittsburgh
Alabama
Oklahoma (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
TCU (Non AQ in BCS Top 8, tied to Rose Bowl if it loses a team to the BCS Title Game)

Selection Order
Rose Bowl selects TCU to replace Oregon (BCS #1)
Sugar Bowl selects Auburn to replace Alabama (BCS #2)
Sugar Bowl selects Nebraska
Orange Bowl selects Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl selects Pittsburgh

BCS National Championship
Oregon (12-0, 9-0, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)

Rose Bowl
Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At Large)

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. Pittsburgh (8-4, 6-1, Big East Champion)

Sugar Bowl
Auburn (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large)

Orange Bowl
Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)
Oct 31, 2010 10:36am
V

vball10set

paying it forward

24,795 posts
Oct 31, 2010 10:47 AM
believer;531786 wrote: Capital One Bowl
Ohio State (11-1, 7-1 Big 10 co-champion) vs. LSU (10-2, 6-2 SEC)

man I hope you're right---I really do :cool:
Oct 31, 2010 10:47am
Rotinaj's avatar

Rotinaj

Senior Member

7,699 posts
Oct 31, 2010 10:51 AM
vball10set;539447 wrote:man I hope you're right---I really do :cool:

That game would be better than 3 of the 5 BCS bowl games.
Oct 31, 2010 10:51am
Z

Zombaypirate

Senior Member

581 posts
Oct 31, 2010 10:56 AM
Cleveland Buck;539438 wrote:Thoughts:
Arizona is the only somewhat legitimate defense Oregon will face in the Pac-10, and they might not have their QB, so I can't pick that upset yet.

I still have Michigan State winning the bid in a three way tie for the Big Ten title with Iowa and Wisconsin.

Auto Bids:
Oregon
Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
Florida State (tied to Orange Bowl)
Pittsburgh
Alabama
Oklahoma (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
TCU (Non AQ in BCS Top 8, tied to Rose Bowl if it loses a team to the BCS Title Game)

Selection Order
Rose Bowl selects TCU to replace Oregon (BCS #1)
Sugar Bowl selects Auburn to replace Alabama (BCS #2)
Sugar Bowl selects Nebraska
Orange Bowl selects Wisconsin
Fiesta Bowl selects Pittsburgh

BCS National Championship
Oregon (12-0, 9-0, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Alabama (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)

Rose Bowl
Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At Large)

Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. Pittsburgh (8-4, 6-1, Big East Champion)

Sugar Bowl
Auburn (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Nebraska (11-2, 7-1, At Large)

Orange Bowl
Florida State (11-2, 7-1, ACC Champion) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)
I wonder if they will snub Boise St as an at large?

Not seeing Florida St win the ACC. VT will beat them IF Florida St even wins their half of the conference.

The Big East with an auto bid is embarrassing.

Good picks though overall.
Oct 31, 2010 10:56am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 6, 2010 11:56 PM
Projected Final BCS Top 14:
1. Oregon 12-0
2. Auburn 12-1
3. TCU 12-0
4. LSU 11-1
5. Boise State 12-0
6. Nebraska 12-1
7. Wisconsin 11-1
8. Stanford 11-1
9. Alabama 10-2
10. Michigan State 11-1
11. Iowa 10-2
12. Missouri 10-2
13. Arkansas 9-3
14. Virginia Tech 11-2

Auto Bids:
Oregon
Michigan State (tied to Rose Bowl)
Virginia Tech (tied to Orange Bowl)
Pittsburgh
Auburn
Nebraska (tied to Fiesta Bowl)
TCU (Non AQ in BCS Top 8, tied to Rose Bowl if it loses a team to the BCS Title Game)
LSU (AQ BCS Top 4)

Selection Order
Rose Bowl selects TCU to replace Oregon (BCS #1)
Sugar Bowl selects LSU to replace Auburn (BCS #2)
Sugar Bowl selects Wisconsin
Orange Bowl selects Pittsburgh
Fiesta Bowl selects Boise State

BCS National Championship
Oregon (12-0, 9-0, Pac-10 Champion) vs. Auburn (12-1, 7-1, SEC Champion)

Rose Bowl
Michigan State (11-1, 7-1, Big Ten Champion) vs. TCU (12-0, 8-0, At Large)

Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska (12-1, 7-1, Big XII Champion) vs. Boise State (12-0, 8-0, At Large)

Sugar Bowl
LSU (11-1, 7-1, At Large) vs. Wisconsin (11-1, 7-1, At Large)

Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (11-2, 8-0, ACC Champion) vs. Pittsburgh (8-4, 6-1, Big East Champion)
Nov 6, 2010 11:56pm
ytownfootball's avatar

ytownfootball

Bold faced liar...

6,978 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:05 AM
So Ohio State will be losing 2 of the next three or all three?
Nov 7, 2010 12:05am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:10 AM
ytownfootball;548065 wrote:So Ohio State will be losing 2 of the next three or all three?

Even if they only lose to Iowa they will still drop like a rock. Either way, it makes no difference in my projections, so I just left them out.
Nov 7, 2010 12:10am
M

Manhattan Buckeye

Senior Member

7,566 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:11 AM
ytownfootball;548065 wrote:So Ohio State will be losing 2 of the next three or all three?

LOL.

All 3, and will lose to a MAC team in a bowl game!

Lot of mediocrity showing today, almost makes the Wisky game from OSU excusable. Almost.
Nov 7, 2010 12:11am
ytownfootball's avatar

ytownfootball

Bold faced liar...

6,978 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:13 AM
Cleveland Buck;548069 wrote:Even if they only lose to Iowa they will still drop like a rock. Either way, it makes no difference in my projections, so I just left them out.

So a two loss OSU team would fall behind VT who lost to fucking James Madison?

That's a stretch dude, even for the most ardent of haters...lol
Nov 7, 2010 12:13am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:15 AM
If the loss to James Madison mattered to voters Virginia Tech wouldn't be ranked now. They haven't beaten anyone.
Nov 7, 2010 12:15am
ytownfootball's avatar

ytownfootball

Bold faced liar...

6,978 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:18 AM
Except that one of their 3 losses was to an FCS opponent...credibility is waning
Nov 7, 2010 12:18am
krambman's avatar

krambman

Senior Member

3,606 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:23 AM
Cleveland Buck;548078 wrote:If the loss to James Madison mattered to voters Virginia Tech wouldn't be ranked now. They haven't beaten anyone.

Well, there are only 25 teams left with two or less losses, so it kind of makes sense that they would be ranked. They're also on a seven game winning streak. I'm not saying that they should be ranked, but you can make a good argument for them being in the top 25.
Nov 7, 2010 12:23am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:23 AM
There you go. VT will win out.
Nov 7, 2010 12:23am
ytownfootball's avatar

ytownfootball

Bold faced liar...

6,978 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:31 AM
I'll take Ohio States chances of going 2-1 with PSU and UM at home and Iowa on the road versus VT at North Carolina, Miami and at home versus Virginia, and them going 3-0. That would leave OSU with 2 losses to top 10 teams and VT wit 3 losses to Boise, James Madison and one in NC or Miami.

Please
Nov 7, 2010 12:31am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:34 AM
Harris is out for Miami, which means VT could win the ACC without playing a single good team to do it. It's no stretch to think they could win out. Is it that big of a snub to you that I don't have Ohio State 14th in my prediction? Does it matter? Either way they aren't making a BCS Bowl.
Nov 7, 2010 12:34am
Leonardo's avatar

Leonardo

Senior Member

4,986 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:35 AM
Your logic is off is a tad off. The highest ranked BCS team from the Big 10 goes to the Rose Bowl if two or more teams end up tied in conference play. Therefore, if Michigan State and Wisconsin both finish with one loss (as you noted), the higher ranked BCS team (you have Wisconsin higher than Michigan State) would get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl.
Nov 7, 2010 12:35am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:40 AM
Leonardo;548106 wrote:Your logic is off is a tad off. The highest ranked BCS team from the Big 10 goes to the Rose Bowl if two or more teams end up tied in conference play. Therefore, if Michigan State and Wisconsin both finish with one loss (as you noted), the higher ranked BCS team (you have Wisconsin higher than Michigan State) would get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl.
No, they wouldn't. If there is a 3 way tie with Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa, the first tiebreaker would be overall record, which would drop Iowa from consideration, at which point MSU's win over Wisconsin gives them the Rose Bowl bid.
Nov 7, 2010 12:40am
krambman's avatar

krambman

Senior Member

3,606 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:43 AM
Cleveland Buck;548105 wrote:Harris is out for Miami, which means VT could win the ACC without playing a single good team to do it.

This is the ACC that we're talking about. The conference champion was going to win the conference this year without beating a single good team in conference no matter who it was.
Leonardo;548106 wrote:Your logic is off is a tad off. The highest ranked BCS team from the Big 10 goes to the Rose Bowl if two or more teams end up tied in conference play. Therefore, if Michigan State and Wisconsin both finish with one loss (as you noted), the higher ranked BCS team (you have Wisconsin higher than Michigan State) would get the automatic bid to the Rose Bowl.

Wrong. Your logic is ill informed. The BCS ranking is like the third tie breaker. In his projections he's assuming that Iowa is going to beat OSU, which will mean Michigan State and Wisconsin will share the conference title. In that case, since it's a two way share, the team that won the head-to-head match up (Michigan State) would earn the conference's automatic birth, regardless of their BCS rank. He's correct that with a two way tie between MSU and Wisky that MSU would go to Pasadena.
Nov 7, 2010 12:43am
krambman's avatar

krambman

Senior Member

3,606 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:48 AM
Cleveland Buck;548111 wrote:No, they wouldn't. If there is a 3 way tie with Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Iowa, the first tiebreaker would be overall record, which would drop Iowa from consideration, at which point MSU's win over Wisconsin gives them the Rose Bowl bid.

That's incorrect. The first tie breaker there would be if one team beat the other two. The second tie breaker would be if one team lost to the other two they would be eliminated. Then it's overall record. Then head-to-head with the remaining teams, then BCS. So actually Iowa being eliminated is the third tie breaker, not the first tie breaker.
Nov 7, 2010 12:48am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Nov 7, 2010 12:52 AM
krambman;548118 wrote:That's incorrect. The first tie breaker there would be if one team beat the other two. The second tie breaker would be if one team lost to the other two they would be eliminated. Then it's overall record. Then head-to-head with the remaining teams, then BCS. So actually Iowa being eliminated is the third tie breaker, not the first tie breaker.

Ok, whatever. The first tiebreaker that actually applies to that scenario.
Nov 7, 2010 12:52am