karen lotz;426199 wrote:Yeah 4 shots is a lot to make up but considering what Dustin Johnson did in the first few holes of his final round at the US Open plus the possibility of horrible playing conditions, anything is possible.
I thought about that, but in a lot of ways the 2 Opens are entirely different beasts.
St. Andrews is so open that the bombers can hit it anywhere for the most part (except a few of the really bad bunkers) and still have shots at the green. There isn't that element of superthick rough, long golf course, and lightning fast greens that kills you at the U.S Open.
There is alot more room for error at the British Open than the U.S.
St. Andrews is essentially defenseless if the wind doesn't blow, as evidence by the way the guys turned it into a pitch and putt most of Thursday.
If the wind blows, its anyones guess. Although the flip side to that is in 40 mile an hour winds no one is shooting 65 as we saw Friday so that doesn't necessarily help those that are 10+ shots back as they would need a monumental collapse of epic proportions.
Oosthuizen could shoot 80 tomorrow and still post -7. Quite frankly if the wind is bad enough that the best he can do is 80 assuming he doesn't completely lose his mind from the pressure, you would still have to like his chances. He has just built a huge cushion.
A collapse on his part is not out of the cards, I just think the nature of St. Andrews and the set-up (little rough, wide fairways, slow greens) makes it harder for a guy to totally collapse the way you can at a U.S Open as the grind of being of the round (lightning greens, rough everywhere, narrow fairways, very few birdie chances) makes it much easier to meltdown.
Oosthuizen, even if he plays poorly, buy nature of being as long as he is will have plenty of birdie chances tomorrow because of how short many of the par 4's are. Unless someone in the group at -5,-6 shoots 63 or 64 tomorrow, or the wind blows like it did in the afternoon yesterday and causes the leaders to shoot 80, I see little way anyone other than Oosthuizen or Casey wins the tournament as you are just not going to shoot 80 without God awful scoring conditions.
The other thing I think that helps a guy like him or Casey tremendously is that no one within 10 shots of the lead owns a Major Championship. Having a Tiger or Phil 3-4 back would make the nerves much worse than a whole bunch of guys who also have no major. You would just feel more confident I would think because all of your closest competitors are feeling the same pressure you are never having won it.