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Kentucky Derby sim pits 13 Triple Crown Winners against each other

Home ▸ Forums ▸ Serious Business ▸ Kentucky Derby sim pits 13 Triple Crown Winners against each other
gut

Senior Member

23,575 posts
May 1, 2020 2:06 PM

I'm sure this will end-up being lame, but definitely curious to see this.  Secretariat still has all 3 track records, so not sure how he doesn't win (which is why it's a safe bet he won't).  Note that Secretariat DID lose 3 times as a 3 year old.

https://www.startribune.com/virtual-kentucky-derby-secretariat-is-favorite-in-race-of-13-triple-crown-winners/570116231/

" Secretariat is the morning line favorite at 7-2. But the 1973 champion is not seen as a virtual lock, with Whirlaway (1941) at 4-1, Seattle Slew (1977) at 5-1 and American Pharoah (2015) at 6-1. "

American Pharoah is an interesting pick, and probably the only other horse that most people are familiar with.  If the production quality is well done, should be a fun thing to watch.

QuakerOats

Senior Member

14,959 posts
May 1, 2020 5:19 PM

 

I thought Citation was at 4 – 1  ??

 

Hard to go against Secretariat although are they looking at this as a standalone race (just factoring in Derby performances), or are they taking all three races into consideration?  If you count the spectacular Belmont performance, Secretariat wins going away.  Otherwise, I might lay a few bucks on Affirmed.

 

Heretic

Son of the Sun

22,923 posts
May 1, 2020 6:40 PM

Let me know how many lengths Secretariat (the original social distancing icon) wins by.

gut

Senior Member

23,575 posts
May 1, 2020 8:35 PM

Secretariat's odds maybe somewhere around 25%, with about 5 others (including American Pharoah) around 12%.  Puts the rest of the field around 15%.

Like I said, Secretariat was beat 3X that year.  And American Pharoah was the only horse to win the Breeders cup (wasn't around the last time a horse won the TC), which is a super impressive win.

Apparently they came up with odds based on the horse's career, along with input from experts.  From there it's a sim based on those odds.  Not exactly sure how they do that - I think they take one run at random otherwise your representative sample should = the odds of each horse.

I'll box Pharaoh - Secretariat - Affirmed.

Laley23

GOAT

38,329 posts
May 2, 2020 12:47 AM

Secretariat doesn’t win, it’s a massive upset. He still holds the track record at Churchill for that distance, nearly 50 years later.

His losses that year came when he was sick (also a horrible run by the jockey), entered into a race as a replacement when another horse couldn’t handle conditions and finally, when he had an issue/infection in his mouth where he couldn’t take the bit. The last one is an excuse, the other 2 are legit reasons and if money wasn’t so heavily involved he wouldn’t have ever raced in them.

American Pharoah being so high in the odds makes no sense. He wasn’t a great horse by historical measures. Justify is way better, if talking the recent TC winners.

  • Secretariat for the win 
  • Tri-Box Secretariat/Justify/Affirmed.
  • Tri-Box Key Secretariat over Justify/Affirmed/Citation/Whirlaway
  • Super-Wheel Secretariat/Affirmed/Justify for Win/Place, wheel rest
Laley23

GOAT

38,329 posts
May 2, 2020 3:50 PM

Laley23

GOAT

38,329 posts
May 2, 2020 3:51 PM

In honor of this, figured I’d remind everyone of this great moment in TV history

QuakerOats

Senior Member

14,959 posts
May 4, 2020 10:41 AM
posted by Heretic

Let me know how many lengths Secretariat (the original social distancing icon) wins by.

 

Secretariat won by a head –

 

 

The race results are as follows:

  • WIN: Secretariat (1973)
  • PLACE: Citation (1948)
  • SHOW: Seattle Slew (1977) 4 - Affirmed (1978) 5 - American Pharoah (2015) 6 - Whirlaway (1941) 7 - Count Fleet (1943) 8 - Justify (2018) 9 - Assault (1946) 10 - War Admiral (1937) 11 - Omaha (1935) 12 - Gallant Fox (1930)