Some empirical data on the season so far . . .

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fan_from_texas

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2,693 posts
Feb 21, 2010 5:18 PM
I went ahead and crunched some numbers, which are accurate as of this morning (before today's games, so note that 'Nova/Pitt and Ohio State/Mich State aren't included yet). Note that to the extent a game is played on a neutral court, a team's true Home/Road record is different from its reported.

If you can't see the google doc below, you can go straight to it at this link.

<iframe width='1000' height='800' frameborder='0' src='http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=txCUWqtRckFcQnCTvNBoB8g&output=html&widget=true'></iframe>
Feb 21, 2010 5:18pm
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fan_from_texas

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2,693 posts
Feb 21, 2010 5:21 PM
FWIW, it looks like the B12, ACC, BEC, and B10 are all fairly close, with the SEC a bit behind, and the Pac-10 WAY behind.
Feb 21, 2010 5:21pm
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CinciX12

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2,874 posts
Feb 21, 2010 6:19 PM
Xavier is undefeated at home, not 13-1. I wouldn't be a dick about it if that wasn't the only thing I could pride myself on this season:D They are counting a loss to Marquette as a home game but it was neutral court.
Feb 21, 2010 6:19pm
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fan_from_texas

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2,693 posts
Feb 21, 2010 6:49 PM
CinciX12 wrote: Xavier is undefeated at home, not 13-1. I wouldn't be a dick about it if that wasn't the only thing I could pride myself on this season:D They are counting a loss to Marquette as a home game but it was neutral court.
*cough* Second sentence above--
Note that to the extent a game is played on a neutral court, a team's true Home/Road record is different from its reported.
Feb 21, 2010 6:49pm
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CinciX12

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2,874 posts
Feb 21, 2010 7:12 PM
fan_from_texas wrote:
CinciX12 wrote: Xavier is undefeated at home, not 13-1. I wouldn't be a dick about it if that wasn't the only thing I could pride myself on this season:D They are counting a loss to Marquette as a home game but it was neutral court.
*cough* Second sentence above--
Note that to the extent a game is played on a neutral court, a team's true Home/Road record is different from its reported.
Hey buddy, I'm not here to read crap alright! Get off my back haha.

Sorry 'bout that..
Feb 21, 2010 7:12pm
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fan_from_texas

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2,693 posts
Feb 21, 2010 7:16 PM
LOL, no prob.
Feb 21, 2010 7:16pm
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Mulva

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13,650 posts
Feb 21, 2010 8:52 PM
What constitutes a close game?
Feb 21, 2010 8:52pm
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dokken

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230 posts
Feb 21, 2010 9:21 PM
The Big East has 12 teams in the top 62, roughly 20% of all teams in the top 62.
Feb 21, 2010 9:21pm
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fan_from_texas

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2,693 posts
Feb 21, 2010 10:08 PM
Mulva wrote: What constitutes a close game?
I put it within 5 points. Do you think that is good? Or should it be more/less?

The ratings are based on a modified Elo system, like Massey/Sagarin.
Feb 21, 2010 10:08pm
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fan_from_texas

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2,693 posts
Feb 21, 2010 10:22 PM
Do you know of any site that lists the schedule in such a way as to easily differentiate between home, away, and neutral? Ideally, a text-only site would be great (ESPN/CBS are both too commercial and have a ton of flash advertising that makes it tough to parse data). I'm currently using STATS, http://hosted.stats.com/cbk/teamstats.asp?team=287&report=schedule, which is pretty good for text-only, but it doesn't clarify whether a game is on a neutral court.
Feb 21, 2010 10:22pm
P

Prescott

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2,569 posts
Feb 21, 2010 10:59 PM
fft's stuff is very interesting and appreciated. Thanks for the hard work.
Feb 21, 2010 10:59pm
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Mulva

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13,650 posts
Feb 21, 2010 11:00 PM
fan_from_texas wrote: I put it within 5 points. Do you think that is good? Or should it be more/less?
5-6 points is the number I would personally use. That's a tough call to make though, because some games can be within 2 points at the minute mark and end up being 8 point games because teams don't stop fouling.
Feb 21, 2010 11:00pm
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Big Gain

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2,073 posts
Feb 22, 2010 1:45 AM
The seeding committee takes into consideration the games a team losses when a "star" player is out with an injury as long as that player plays at the same level when he comes back.
Feb 22, 2010 1:45am
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fan_from_texas

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2,693 posts
Feb 22, 2010 9:51 AM
Mulva wrote: 5-6 points is the number I would personally use. That's a tough call to make though, because some games can be within 2 points at the minute mark and end up being 8 point games because teams don't stop fouling.
Yeah. One thing that has been an issue (with the data I have) is that an OT game that is decided by 10 pts doesn't count as close. I'm trying to find a new data source to be able to include OT games, even if they end up being farther apart at the end.
Feb 22, 2010 9:51am
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cbus4life

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2,849 posts
Feb 22, 2010 10:26 AM
Great stuff FFT.
Feb 22, 2010 10:26am
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rydawg5

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2,639 posts
Feb 22, 2010 11:30 AM
You really need to go to the score tracker and see if it is "within 5 with 2 mintues left" perhaps..
Feb 22, 2010 11:30am
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fan_from_texas

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2,693 posts
Feb 22, 2010 12:02 PM
rydawg5 wrote: You really need to go to the score tracker and see if it is "within 5 with 2 mintues left" perhaps..
I'm not sure there's an easy way to pull that info for every game.
Feb 22, 2010 12:02pm