Laley23;1602416 wrote:Ok, so you get the stop and score. Now you are down by 1 or 2 with around 15 second left. They make both (because we are assuming they arent missing). You are down 3 or 4 with 13 seconds left. You hit a 3 to tie the game with 6 seconds left or are down by 1.
But, to me, making the 2 threes is just as unlikely as making 3-4 lay-ups with a UCONN miss at some point. Probably even better odds, imo.
I'm not going to argue the game theory. It's a 2 possession game. You're going to need them to miss a free throw, but the more you put them on the line the more you have to makes 3's and hope they miss...you're better off taking the only opportunity you have to play defense here. A defensive stop is your absolute best chance to tie this up in the quickest way possible, assuming they're going to make their next 2 free throws.
If UConn would miss a free throw, even their next one...then you want to play for the defensive stop. You are unlikely to turn over their backcourt, and you are unlikely to gain much ground putting them on the line. Your BEST chance to cut this deficit is to play defense. Yes, conventional wisdom says to foul - UConn is the team where conventional wisdom is wrong.
We can split hairs...KY doesn't have a good option here. It wasn't a stupid call and I'm not really interested if the odds were slightly for or against the call. This is really a gray area - they're down more than 2-3, but less than 6-7...you foul a bad FT shooter otherwise you play defense.