Archive College Basketball Random Chatter 2012-2013 Season

Azubuike24

Posts: 15,933

Mar 8, 2013 10:07am

There isn't a 16-seed with a prayer to beat a #1. You're looking at the Big South winner, Ivy winner and SWAC winner as 3 of them (play-in potential). If someone knocks off Middle Tennessee in the Sun Belt or Robert Morris in the NEC, there are 2 others. I'd love to see it, but it won't happen this year.

Now, some 2's and 3's WILL have some tough first round games. There are some 14's and 15's capable of challenging some top teams.

Fly4Fun

Posts: 7,730

Mar 8, 2013 10:15am

Last year's 16 seeds (rpi)

UNC Asheville (100)

Lamar (113) v. Vermont (128) play in game for 16

LIU Brooklyn (82)

Mississippi Valley (152) v. Western Kentucky (171) play in game for 16
.

Also of note, Lehigh had an rpi of 87, and could have been a 16 seed instead of Long Island. If CJ McCollum went off like he did against Duke who knows, they might have taken down a 1 seed.

Laley23

Posts: 29,506

Mar 8, 2013 11:08am

That was last year. This years 16s are MUCH weaker. if you look at lunardis current bracket, I'd bet the 4 play in 16s are worse or similar to penn st in rpi. I'd look, but on phone.

Also, the 1s last year were stronger last year, save, IMO, Syracuse (Kansas was a better pick for a #1)

Azubuike24

Posts: 15,933

Mar 8, 2013 11:19am

The 16's this year are really bad. Especially if the seeds don't hold in some of these leagues. As I said before though, I think after you get away from the bottom 4-6 teams in the dance, everyone else is legit.

Fly4Fun

Posts: 7,730

Mar 8, 2013 11:51am

Charleston Souther (190) v. Southern U. (188)

Mercer (129)

Northeastern (159) v. Norfolk State (171)

Robert Morris (112)

So PSU is within 20 of the hypothetical play-in candidates, but not within 20 of the non-play in 16 seeds.

By the numbers (rpi) PSU doesn't seem to be better than the possible 16 seeds. Either the same as the play-ins or worse than the non-play ins.

Heretic

Posts: 18,820

Mar 8, 2013 11:52am

Fly4Fun;1402712 wrote:Charleston Souther (190) v. Southern U. (188)

Mercer (129)

Northeastern (159) v. Norfolk State (171)

Robert Morris (112)

So PSU is within 20 of the hypothetical play-in candidates, but not within 20 of the non-play in 16 seeds.

By the numbers (rpi) PSU doesn't seem to be better than the possible 16 seeds. Either the same as the play-ins or worse than the non-play ins.

This can't be true. Sleeper has told us that every single team not in the B1G would finish below Penn State if they were. So I figured their RPI had to be 12 or so.

Laley23

Posts: 29,506

Mar 8, 2013 12:55pm

Fly4Fun;1402712 wrote:Charleston Souther (190) v. Southern U. (188)

Mercer (129)

Northeastern (159) v. Norfolk State (171)

Robert Morris (112)

So PSU is within 20 of the hypothetical play-in candidates, but not within 20 of the non-play in 16 seeds.

By the numbers (rpi) PSU doesn't seem to be better than the possible 16 seeds. Either the same as the play-ins or worse than the non-play ins.

My point was, because they are within 20, I take them every time on a neutral court. I think RPI is tough to compare when talking about a bad Power team and a good Mid-Major. If they are close, I take the major team, usually. PSU in this instance. Also, those seeds are BEST CASE, as Azu pointed out. We get an upset or 2, and those 16s might be in the 250s lol

Fly4Fun

Posts: 7,730

Mar 8, 2013 2:08pm

Laley23;1402747 wrote:My point was, because they are within 20, I take them every time on a neutral court. I think RPI is tough to compare when talking about a bad Power team and a good Mid-Major. If they are close, I take the major team, usually. PSU in this instance. Also, those seeds are BEST CASE, as Azu pointed out. We get an upset or 2, and those 16s might be in the 250s lol

I know, and I analyzed it using your within 20 parameter. They're about even to the play-in seeds and they are out of the range (worse) than the non-play in games.

But agreed, that if I had to choose between teams of the same or close RPI, I would take the BCS schools over mid-majors.

Mulva

Posts: 13,650

Mar 8, 2013 5:21pm

reclegend22;1402566 wrote:This is a good point, but listening to Joe Lunardi talk about Gonzaga you'd think he was describing the Orlando Magic on NBA Hang Time.

Hang Time was all about the Spurs. Elliott + Robinson = unstoppable.

Azubuike24

Posts: 15,933

Mar 8, 2013 6:36pm

RPI doesn't measure how good you are. It measures how good your schedule and your opponents' schedule is. Winning and losing does play a role, and the reason PSU's RPI is so low is quite frankly, because they've lost a ton of games.

They are easily better than the 16's this year.

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 8, 2013 7:21pm

Mulva;1402860 wrote:Hang Time was all about the Spurs. Elliott + Robinson = unstoppable.

I played with Penny and Horace Grant, and I think I would have taken you. Penny was a God on that game. I literally used to go entire games without missing a three-pointer, and on the rare times that I did, Horace and his goggles were there to clean up.

Mitch Richmond was incredible on those old games too.

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 8, 2013 8:35pm

Ian Clark has made six three-pointers in a row for Belmont against Tennessee State in the semis of the OVC. He is single handedly winning this game for the Bruins. If Belmont gets in and he can get hot in the NCAAs like this in the opening round game, Belmont might finally be able to get that tournament win for coach Rick Byrd. Clark and J.J. Mann are a great shooting duo.

I really hope we get to see Belmont and Murray State in the OVC final tomorrow night.

Mulva

Posts: 13,650

Mar 8, 2013 9:40pm

Akron loses again, at home to Kent State. OU has to be the odds on favorite to win the MAC tourney at this point with Abreu caught in traffic.

Midstate01

Posts: 14,766

Mar 8, 2013 10:27pm

Mulva;1402940 wrote:Akron loses again, at home to Kent State. OU has to be the odds on favorite to win the MAC tourney at this point with Abreu caught in traffic.

Kent had caught fire as of late. Theyll be a tough out.

Azubuike24

Posts: 15,933

Mar 8, 2013 11:12pm

Murray State/Belmont tomorrow. If Murray wins, that's probably a 2-bid league.

How about Loyola Marymount? 1-15 in the WCC, they reached the semifinals...they get Gonzaga. The Zags blasted them twice already. It's all falling in line for Gonzaga.

V

vball10set

Posts: 24,795

Mar 9, 2013 7:26am

Mulva;1402940 wrote:Akron loses again, at home to Kent State. OU has to be the odds on favorite to win the MAC tourney at this point with Abreu caught in traffic.

He's cooked

http://www.cleveland.com/sports/college/index.ssf/2013/03/akron_basketball_player_alex_a.html

Fly4Fun

Posts: 7,730

Mar 9, 2013 9:28am

Ken Pomeroy, which does try to rate looking at efficiency on O and D and truly rank and predict future outcomes and not focus so much on winning percentage, opponents record and opponents opponents record like the rpi.

PSU (155)

Charleston Souther (173) v. Southern U. (164)

Mercer (121)

Northeastern (174) v. Norfolk State (220)

Robert Morris (126)

Azubuike24;1402891 wrote:RPI doesn't measure how good you are. It measures how good your schedule and your opponents' schedule is. Winning and losing does play a role, and the reason PSU's RPI is so low is quite frankly, because they've lost a ton of games.

They are easily better than the 16's this year.

So here, PSU is better than the play-ins and still worse than the non-play ins. PSU just isn't a good team.

killer_ewok

Posts: 11,379

Mar 9, 2013 11:21am

Syracuse vs. Georgetown....one last time today.

Azubuike24

Posts: 15,933

Mar 9, 2013 11:28am

Conference tournament semifinal and Gonzaga is a 22-point favorite. Can LMU pull the biggest upset of the year, literally, IN VEGAS?

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 9, 2013 1:01pm

UK giving Florida all it can handle in Lexington. The Cats up 35 to 31 early in the second half. This raises the question. Does UK get in with a win over Florida today? Even with the win, it would only be the Cats' second victory over an RPI Top 50 team this season (Missouri being the other).

With a SOS in the 80s and six losses to teams from the RPI 50+, Kentucky would also likely have to win at least a game or two in the SEC Tournament to have a firm chance.

killer_ewok

Posts: 11,379

Mar 9, 2013 1:05pm

Triche couldn't be more underwhelming.

SportsAndLady

Posts: 35,632

Mar 9, 2013 1:05pm

reclegend22;1403085 wrote:UK giving Florida all it can handle in Lexington. The Cats up 35 to 31 early in the second half. This raises the question. Does UK get in with a win over Florida today? Even with the win, it would only be the Cats' second victory over an RPI Top 50 team this season (Missouri being the other).

With a SOS in the 80s and six losses to teams from the RPI 50+, Kentucky would also likely have to win at least a game or two in the SEC Tournament to have a firm chance.

Assuming they're not 1 and done in the SECT, I think this is a straight play-in game for UK. They need this win on their books. Like you said, there's not much else outside of it.

SportsAndLady

Posts: 35,632

Mar 9, 2013 1:08pm

killer_ewok;1403050 wrote:Syracuse vs. Georgetown....one last time today.

I would love to see these two teams meet in the NCAA tournament in the next few years.

Kind of like how I would love Missouri in the same bracket as Kansas this season.

reclegend22

Posts: 8,772

Mar 9, 2013 1:19pm

SportsAndLady;1403091 wrote:I would love to see these two teams meet in the NCAA tournament in the next few years.

Kind of like how I would love Missouri in the same bracket as Kansas this season.

As of last night, Lunardi had Kansas as a one seed with Missouri in the 8/9 game in that bracket. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that happen. It would be great drama for the tournament.

killer_ewok

Posts: 11,379

Mar 9, 2013 1:24pm

Syracuse Seniors have no heart. Triche and Southerland are playing like dog shit. Sure, G'town D is outstanding but fuck. C'mon. MCW and Christmas came to play today. Syracuse is done. They won't do shit in the postseason.