http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/07/colts-cant-pay-and-trade-peyton/
If the Colts pay Manning that bonus, from what I have read it essentially means they are commiting to him for 2 years.
ESPN said their cap hit for 2012 would be an astronomical $38.8 million if traded, and then $28.8 million in 2013 if they traded him then. Trading him would destroy their cap, but the only way they can get anything for him is to pay that almost $30 million dollar option bonus.
I expect Peyton to play hardball and not defer a decision on his option because it will essentially force their hand. No way with that kind of cap hit they draft luck knowing he sits for 2 years because they are stuck with Peyton. Luck is ready to play now, and it is not going to be a comfortable situation if he has to rot on the bench for 2 years biding his time.
Peyton has made clear (through his father.....who I am sure wasn't speaking off the reservation) he has no interest in mentoring Luck for 2 years instead of having the team use the pick for something that can make a last push to a Super Bowl.
After reading about the cap implications, picking up his option and trading him is untenable. Passing on Luck for a 2-3 year push is also misguided.
That being the case I fully expect Peyton to be a free agent next year because the Colts aren't going to pick up that option knowing how it will decimate their cap situation and kill any hope of materially improving the roster.