jmog;753039 wrote:Even as a conservative I agree with this, right now I don't see many in the GOP able to beat Obama. Its really tough to unseat an incumbant.

Christie on the other hand could REALLY change things up, he could honestly beat Obama in a landslide of the cards fall right.

I don't think anyone will win in a landslide in 2012. I do think Christie could have a chance but I think it would depend on the VP candidate. It'd have to be someone without too much negative stigma attached but it also couldn't be someone like Palin was (IE out of left field no one really knows them plus they don't have much experience).

BGFalcons82;753000 wrote:This is the question that MUST be asked of Mr. Christie. I heard a good one on the radio the other day. It went something like: Churchill didn't have time to wait to become leader of the UK during the Big One. They were about to become another trophy for der fuhrer and needed Winston Churchill in the worst way immediately. Before anyone scoffs too loud, there may not be anything left of this country by 2016 to save. We are this close to economic collapse and chaos and we have no time to wait for him. By the way, economic collapse is something Obama desires so that he can rebuild America in his socialist utopian image. He is NOT going to grant an interview to espouse this belief, but if you read what he's written and how he's acted, it's fairly easy to see...that is...if you want to see it.

dwc- thanks, dude.

Just ask yourself one question...if Obama believed in capitalism and the American spirit, then why doesn't he lead us like he believes in it? He refuses to help the dollar's free-fall, he let's the IMF statement that we will no longer be the world's economic engine in 4 years stand unchallenged, he refuses to allow oil/gas exploration and drilling, he refuses to permit new refineries be built, he believes in energy prices that "would necessarily skyrocket", he is the all-time record holder in running up insurmountable debt, and he believes the goverment should be more in control in each of our daily lives.

Tin foil, eh? When gas hits $6 this summer and no one will have an extra cent to spend on a pizza, then tell me who's got tin foil on and who's in a coma.

Those poll results surprise me. For everything else Obama did to win the 2008 election, he was carried over the top by independents and moderate Republicans who, like many, were prepared to vote for any non-Repub. Many of those people were quickly disillusioned (or should we say, quickly enlightened?) and will be doing much the same in 2012 - voting for any non-Dem (unless the Repub candidate is a total reject like Trump or Palin which isn't going to happen). We already saw this in 2010 congressional elections, reminiscent of the vote of dissatisfaction in 2006 that booted Repubs out of power.

dw: I'm not sure I believe Obama is deliberately doing this, but I do think he's INCOMPETENT enough to ignore the warning signs because he's such an ideologue and a narcissist, and probably is only focusing on things that he thinks matter -- and he also probably doesn't believe what I'm sure some of his own economic folks are telling him.

In any event, I do believe we are on the precipice and when the inflationary pressures become too great, and inflation starts rising more quickly (it's already happening with food and gasoline), those same inflationary pressures will make the debt an even greater percentage of our GDP, and push us closer to the edge.

All you have to do is look at what's happening to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and some other European countries to realize this isn't some scare tactic.

Writerbuckeye;754463 wrote:In any event, I do believe we are on the precipice and when the inflationary pressures become too great, and inflation starts rising more quickly (it's already happening with food and gasoline), those same inflationary pressures will make the debt an even greater percentage of our GDP, and push us closer to the edge.

All you have to do is look at what's happening to Greece, Ireland, Portugal and some other European countries to realize this isn't some scare tactic.

I don't completely buy the premise. Hyper-inflation is bad, but high inflation is bad only to the extent it severely erodes savings/purchasing power. If you look at periods of high inflation in the US (8-9%, even the double digit inflation before Volker slayed it), the markets do pretty well and that's because earnings respond with higher prices. But I don't know the research on inflation adjusted real returns. I do know in those double digit inflation years that CD's and treasuries had ridiculous high rates, so if you had money to invest and did so wisely, you at least kept pace. Completely different story for lower income earners with little to no savings.

So along those same lines, inflation will actually reduce the net present value of the debt. The debt is fixed, so if we can balance the budget GDP will rise with inflation and the debt actually becomes a smaller % of GDP. This is exactly what Bill Gross has been preaching for years about "inflating our way out of debt". And this is also why everyone is deftly afraid of deflation, because you get the opposite result - lower revenues, lower GDP with debt becoming a bigger %. I think secretly the fed and govt would like to sustain inflation in @ 6-7% range - that would be manageable and you'd halve the value of the debt in 10-12 years. All moot if we continue to run huge deficits.

And that brings me full circle to the S&P downgrade/risk assessment. Paying 2-5% interest on debt with potential inflation of 6% or more implies a negative real interest rate. That's clearly not sustainable and why balancing the budget is that much more urgent as future interest rates are going to be considerably higher. Not to mention we tend to roll-over the debt (re-issue to pay off what's due) and so the existing debt is going to carry much higher future interest rates. So even with a balanced budget the future debt service will increase which is going to push us significantly back into the red. That's why it's imperative not only to balance the budget, but come up with a feasible plan to begin paying down debt (higher taxes). Establish a credible plan to pay-off the debt over 30-50 years and you can keep those interest rates down and restore faith in the USD as a reserve currency. Problem is the morons in Washington aren't even credible at balancing the budget, much less instituting a plan to pay down the debt responsibly.

BGFalcons82;754285 wrote:dwc- thanks, dude.

Just ask yourself one question...if Obama believed in capitalism and the American spirit, then why doesn't he lead us like he believes in it? He refuses to help the dollar's free-fall, he let's the IMF statement that we will no longer be the world's economic engine in 4 years stand unchallenged, he refuses to allow oil/gas exploration and drilling, he refuses to permit new refineries be built, he believes in energy prices that "would necessarily skyrocket", he is the all-time record holder in running up insurmountable debt, and he believes the goverment should be more in control in each of our daily lives.

Tin foil, eh? When gas hits $6 this summer and no one will have an extra cent to spend on a pizza, then tell me who's got tin foil on and who's in a coma.

Yeah ok. Nothing will be left in 2016 to save. Obama wants us to collapse. Sure. I guess I am the one with the tin foil hat on. :rolleyes:

I am not an Obama supporter and can't wait to vote him out of office in 2012, but some of your statements are so far out there it is comical to read.

gut;754480 wrote:Problem is the morons in Washington aren't even credible at balancing the budget, much less instituting a plan to pay down the debt responsibly.

All of your points are valid including this last statement. I'm telling you right now, I have ZERO confidence in the clowns running the show at the federal level. It is absolutely criminal, irresponsible, and asinine what we are witnessing. I love the United States but I'm thoroughly disgusted with and embarrassed about our nation's leaders.

dwccrew;755207 wrote:Yeah ok. Nothing will be left in 2016 to save. Obama wants us to collapse. Sure. I guess I am the one with the tin foil hat on. :rolleyes:

I am not an Obama supporter and can't wait to vote him out of office in 2012, but some of your statements are so far out there it is comical to read.

May seem comical now. I know it is damn hard to believe a POTUS has a desire to collapse our economic system. Who would want that, you ask? That's crazy talk...he's as American as any other POTUS. Uh huh. Just watch how he acts and you will scratch your head and ask...What the F? Why is he printing money as fast as he can? Why is he giving $5,000,000,000 to Columbia and $2,000,000,000 to Brazil for oil exploration yet BLOCKS it anywhere near our borders? Why did they F Sunoco last week? Did you read the EPA's reason? They said the vessels used to extract the oil were in violation of their new carbon statutes. In other words, diesel and gas powered boats/vehicles are the reason Sunoco can't remove oil to solve their $4,000,000,000 investment. Say the F what?

Bernacke said he's done with Quantitative Easing for now. Guess what happens next? Gut eluded to it a few posts ago. This bunch of amateurs is playing a game of chicken with our country's future by attempting to "control" inflation. Never been done before, and yet, you think I'm wearin tin foil for believing this regime can't pull it off. When we have $6 gas, $4 bread, $5 milk and gold approaching $1800/oz, then you'll finally wonder what the F happened. Too late, dude. We'll be trying to figure out how to live without jobs at that point.

BGFalcons82;755327 wrote: When we have $6 gas, $4 bread, $5 milk and gold approaching $1800/oz, then you'll finally wonder what the F happened. Too late, dude. We'll be trying to figure out how to live without jobs at that point.

I just paid $4.10 a gallon for gas here in State College. I bought milk today at Wally World for $3.96 a gallon. And our corporate CEO flew in this week to tell us they're closing our plant and moving our operation to Tennessee.

Tin foil hat or reality?

Off the USAF base here in Hawaii gas is 4.65
Gallon of milk 6.95
It's getting crazy!!

BGFalcons82;755327 wrote:May seem comical now. I know it is damn hard to believe a POTUS has a desire to collapse our economic system. Who would want that, you ask? That's crazy talk...he's as American as any other POTUS.

You said it. I couldn't agree more. You and I may not agree with Obama's methods of trying to operate the country, but I think it is very far off to believe his intention is to deliberately collapse the system. One man can not do this alone, not even the president. Therefore, it would have to be a collective between Obama and Congress. Do you think the conspiracy to collapse our country runs that deep?

BGFalcons82;755327 wrote:Uh huh. Just watch how he acts and you will scratch your head and ask...What the F? Why is he printing money as fast as he can?

I didn't realize that the president had the authority to print money. This is a very inaccurate statement as the president doesn't have the authority to do this. The Fed Reserve and Dept. of Treasury is the entities that controls the money supply and printing of currency.

http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/MoneySupply.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-fed-is-printing-yet-money-supply-is-falling-2009-9

BGFalcons82 wrote: Why is he giving $5,000,000,000 to Columbia and $2,000,000,000 to Brazil for oil exploration yet BLOCKS it anywhere near our borders? Why did they F Sunoco last week? Did you read the EPA's reason? They said the vessels used to extract the oil were in violation of their new carbon statutes. In other words, diesel and gas powered boats/vehicles are the reason Sunoco can't remove oil to solve their $4,000,000,000 investment. Say the F what?

Not agreeing or diagreeing here, but do you have some links to back these up? If you do I would like to read them so I can form a hypothesis and answer the questions you've asked.

BGFalcons82 wrote:Bernacke said he's done with Quantitative Easing for now. Guess what happens next? Gut eluded to it a few posts ago. This bunch of amateurs is playing a game of chicken with our country's future by attempting to "control" inflation. Never been done before, and yet, you think I'm wearin tin foil for believing this regime can't pull it off.

I don't think they can pull it off either, but that was not what I found comical about your previous post either.

BGFalcons82 wrote:When we have $6 gas, $4 bread, $5 milk and gold approaching $1800/oz, then you'll finally wonder what the F happened. Too late, dude. We'll be trying to figure out how to live without jobs at that point.

Again, another Chicken Little statement. Things may get worse before they get better, but I don't believe that even Obama can collapse the economy in 4 years. The impending doom (which I don't foresee happening in 5 years like you do) has been a collection of bad policy and legislation from the last 2-3 decades.

believer;755326 wrote:All of your points are valid including this last statement. I'm telling you right now, I have ZERO confidence in the clowns running the show at the federal level. It is absolutely criminal, irresponsible, and asinine what we are witnessing. I love the United States but I'm thoroughly disgusted with and embarrassed about our nation's leaders.

Well, I suppose ultimately the problem is rather short-sighted/ignorant populace that acts solely out of self-interest (can't grasp the concept of a smaller piece of a bigger pie being better). As a result, we elect power brokers who's main objective is re-election and so set-out to buy votes rather than act responsibly.

What's that line in Gladiator? "The mob IS Rome?" That's basically what we have. People won't throw their elected officials out of office as long as they are bringing money back to their district,even if that money is wasted on bad projects.

Problem is, you somehow get elected and go to Washington as a junior congressman and you can't really change shit. And then as you get blackballed and stonewalled, you get voted out in the next election. Ultimately that may be why a federal bankruptcy in perhaps 20 years is inevitable. Some of the voters are coming around but not nearly enough and I suspect it may be too little, too late. The US attempting to inflate it's way out of debt (which is arguably well under way now) is probably the last recourse before default.

gut;755396 wrote:Ultimately that may be why a federal bankruptcy in perhaps 20 years is inevitable. Some of the voters are coming around but not nearly enough and I suspect it may be too little, too late. The US attempting to inflate it's way out of debt (which is arguably well under way now) is probably the last recourse before default.

I agree. I feel terrible for my kids. They're about to enter a very rocky time in American history. If the Feds default into national bankruptcy, the Great American Experiment will fade away into oblivion. Do I think the United States will become irrelevant? No. But we certainly will no longer call the shots. Or at the very least we won't be the only world power calling the shots.

believer;755414 wrote:I agree. I feel terrible for my kids. They're about to enter a very rocky time in American history. If the Feds default into national bankruptcy, the Great American Experiment will fade away into oblivion. Do I think the United States will become irrelevant? No. But we certainly will no longer call the shots. Or at the very least we won't be the only world power calling the shots.

Well, with China expected to surpass US GDP in about 4 years the emergence of another world power is already inevitable. A potential default has so many repercussions. The US will still be relevant, but if you think class warfare is bad now wait until a default slashes entitlements across the board by 50% or more. You'd have levels of poverty and crime not seen since the Great Depression. All hell is going to break loose when there are no food stamps or welfare.

Besides liking the growth prospects better, I'm insulating myself against this inflation with about 50% of my portfolio in commodities and foreign equity markets.

gut;755453 wrote:Well, with China expected to surpass US GDP in about 4 years the emergence of another world power is already inevitable. A potential default has so many repercussions. The US will still be relevant, but if you think class warfare is bad now wait until a default slashes entitlements across the board by 50% or more. You'd have levels of poverty and crime not seen since the Great Depression. All hell is going to break loose when there are no food stamps or welfare.

No question about it. It's not a matter of if but WHEN that happens.

I don't know if you are old enough to remember the race/civil rights riots of the 60's but I do. One element that came out of those violent times was the dramatic increase in the welfare state.

We could/will very easily see this happen again but far worse this time. It won't be because of civil rights this time though. This time it will be millions of blacks, latinos, and WHITES burning buildings because they've been removed from the government entitlement tit.

believer;755333 wrote:I just paid $4.10 a gallon for gas here in State College. I bought milk today at Wally World for $3.96 a gallon. And our corporate CEO flew in this week to tell us they're closing our plant and moving our operation to Tennessee.

Tin foil hat or reality?

$4.10? I paid $3.81 in DC last week and paid $2.34 for a gallon of milk a few days ago. You are getting screwed lol.

gut;754480 wrote:[B]I don't completely buy the premise. Hyper-inflation is bad,.

I'm shocked by your statement here. You're a smart dude....but this statement is a head scratcher. Might want to revisit what hyper inflation actually is. Think Germany in the early twenties. Hyperinflation is a quick path to economic death and the complete destruction of a monetary value structure.

Footwedge;755753 wrote:I'm shocked by your statement here. You're a smart dude....but this statement is a head scratcher. Might want to revisit what hyper inflation actually is. Think Germany in the early twenties. Hyperinflation is a quick path to economic death and the complete destruction of a monetary value structure.

Yes, I know what hyperinflation is. Wrong superlative, I suppose. It's much, much worse than bad, fair enough. Wasn't trying to play semantics just distinguish between high inflation (which isn't necessarily bad when wages and markets keep pace, as they did in the 80's, not that the lag with wages didn't make it trying).

believer;755333 wrote:I just paid $4.10 a gallon for gas here in State College. I bought milk today at Wally World for $3.96 a gallon. And our corporate CEO flew in this week to tell us they're closing our plant and moving our operation to Tennessee.

Tin foil hat or reality?

The economy or your situation being bad in no way means that Obama is actively trying to ruin the United States.

BGFalcons82;753000 wrote:This is the question that MUST be asked of Mr. Christie. I heard a good one on the radio the other day. It went something like: Churchill didn't have time to wait to become leader of the UK during the Big One. They were about to become another trophy for der fuhrer and needed Winston Churchill in the worst way immediately. Before anyone scoffs too loud, there may not be anything left of this country by 2016 to save. We are this close to economic collapse and chaos and we have no time to wait for him. By the way, economic collapse is something Obama desires so that he can rebuild America in his socialist utopian image. He is NOT going to grant an interview to espouse this belief, but if you read what he's written and how he's acted, it's fairly easy to see...that is...if you want to see it.

Exactly. You hate Obama that you'll see bad in everything he does no matter what. Dude isn't perfect and I don't think he's done a good job so far but what you've written is insane conspiracy theory bullshit.

ptown_trojans_1;755747 wrote:$4.10? I paid $3.81 in DC last week and paid $2.34 for a gallon of milk a few days ago. You are getting screwed lol.

I'm sure you are paying less. Those of you inside the Beltway are insulated from reality.

I Wear Pants;756655 wrote:The economy or your situation being bad in no way means that Obama is actively trying to ruin the United States.

True. I'll just blame Bush.