from the show this morning
ESPNRadio.com
Mike & Mike producer Liam poses with his mum.In Monday night's NCAA tournament final there were many statistical quirks during the game. Butler making just three 2-point field goals, Connecticut blocking ten shots and the teams combining to score 94 points, just to name a few. However, the biggest statistical oddity last night came as a result of the game.
Mike & Mike producer Liam Chapman's "mum" not only had Connecticut and Butler in the final game of her bracket, but also came within two points of correctly predicting the final score. She picked UConn to defeat Butler 53-39 ... before the tournament began!
For now let's forget about the fact that Liam's mum lives in England and surely had very little idea this tournament even takes place and try to quantify this amazing feat.
The first thing she did right is correctly predict UConn and Butler to make the final game. Using (Ken Pomeroy's) offensive numbers, defensive numbers and the difficulty of each team's path before the tournament started we find that UConn and Butler's chances of making the title game was 2.30% and 0.19%, respectively. This means the probability of picking both teams to make the championship game is (2.30% * 0.19%) roughly 1 in 25,000.
Obviously, this is an incredible achievement on its own, but Liam's mum went a step further and nearly guessed the final score as well. Using AccuScore simulations of this matchup, the probability that UConn would score between 51-55 points was 8.8%. The probability Butler would score between 39-43 points was only 4%. The chance of both things happening in the same game was 0.39%.
Putting all of these numbers together, the chance of anyone four weeks ago predicting UConn to make the championship game and Butler to make the championship game and UConn to score between 51-55 points in the championship game and Butler to score between 39-43 points in the championship game is 0.000000174, or nearly 1 in 10 million!
On this day, Liam's mum is that one in 10 million.
Albert Larcada is an analytics specialist in ESPN's Stats and Information group. He does advanced statistical research with the intention of better modeling and forecasting sporting events and leagues.
