Bubble Watch

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Mulva's avatar

Mulva

Senior Member

13,650 posts
Mar 11, 2011 11:29 PM
Cleveland Buck;708642 wrote:Wins against Wisconsin twice, Michigan State, and Illinois aren't good enough, but Richmond and Georgia are in? I guess that means they have 4 better wins than that, right? Please show them to me.

No, it means they didn't lose 13 games (to this point), do nothing out of conference, and only finish .500 in conference. Penn State did all of those things, so I don't think 4 top-50 wins makes up for that. You have to look at the profile as a whole, something you apparently have a problem with.

Richmond has 7 more wins (and overall record DOES matter), went 13-3 in its conference, and beat Purdue and VCU out of conference, much better OOC wins than anything Penn State did.

Georgia has 0 bad losses, beat Colorado and UAB out of conference, 3 more total wins, and a better conference record.

They're all 11 seeds at best, but I think those 2 have better resumes overall than Penn State.
Mar 11, 2011 11:29pm
Azubuike24's avatar

Azubuike24

Senior Member

15,933 posts
Mar 11, 2011 11:31 PM
If VT falters, I think there is room for all 3 right now. St. Mary's really trying to blow out Weber State (not like anyone is watching :)).
Mar 11, 2011 11:31pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Mar 11, 2011 11:31 PM
The 5 teams from above that I would have in are Penn State, Georgia, Richmond, Alabama, and UAB.
Mar 11, 2011 11:31pm
D

dave

Senior Member

4,558 posts
Mar 11, 2011 11:32 PM
Not a fan of the SEC, but Georgia should be in. They have some decent wins, and take a look at their losses. All to tourney teams in close games.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/teams/rpi/GA
Mar 11, 2011 11:32pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Mar 11, 2011 11:39 PM
Mulva;708674 wrote:No, it means they didn't lose 13 games (to this point), do nothing out of conference, and only finish .500 in conference. Penn State did all of those things, so I don't think 4 top-50 wins makes up for that. You have to look at the profile as a whole, something you apparently have a problem with.

Richmond has 7 more wins (and overall record DOES matter), went 13-3 in its conference, and beat Purdue and VCU out of conference, much better OOC wins than anything Penn State did.

Georgia has 0 bad losses, beat Colorado and UAB out of conference, 3 more total wins, and a better conference record.

They're all 11 seeds at best, but I think those 2 have better resumes overall than Penn State.

Yeah, Penn State is 9-1 against bad teams, so if they played as many bad teams as those teams did they would have more wins. That's what overall record means to me. There isn't much difference between 13 losses against the 8th toughest schedule, 11 losses against the 39th toughest schedule, and 7 losses against the 143rd toughest schedule. The difference is who have you beaten and how many bad teams did you lose to.
Mar 11, 2011 11:39pm
Azubuike24's avatar

Azubuike24

Senior Member

15,933 posts
Mar 11, 2011 11:41 PM
Has anyone had it closer than Virginia Tech over the last 3 years? An empty possession here and they fall just shot YET AGAIN.
Mar 11, 2011 11:41pm
S

sportswizuhrd

Senior Member

3,215 posts
Mar 12, 2011 6:19 AM
Azubuike24;708694 wrote:Has anyone had it closer than Virginia Tech over the last 3 years? An empty possession here and they fall just shot YET AGAIN.

Did you change the channel before coverage was completely over? :)
Mar 12, 2011 6:19am
S

sportswizuhrd

Senior Member

3,215 posts
Mar 12, 2011 6:23 AM
Two random blogs I came across this morning....

1) Combine the seed projections of the field from 85 other blogs/news sites.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm
1-OSU, Kansas, Pitt, ND
11-Georgia, Richmond, Michigan, Michigan St.
12-Colorado, St.Mary's, BC, Clemson, VT,UTEP(as the C-USA winner)

2-NIT-ology. Predicting the NIT field or as they say it...taking a look at the other[i/] side of the postseason bubble.
http://tcaa.puretecmo.com/nit06.html
Mar 12, 2011 6:23am
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Mar 12, 2011 11:06 AM
Updating the bubble teams for 5 at large spots.

Boston College (1-5 T50, 7-11 T100, 38 SOS, 1 bad loss)

Virginia Tech (2-4 T50, 8-7 T100, 90 SOS, 3 bad losses)

Penn State (5-9 T50, 10-12 T100, 5 SOS, 1 bad loss)

UTEP (2-2 T50, 6-6 T100, 104 SOS, 2 bad losses)

UAB (1-4 T50, 10-7 T100, 79 SOS, 1 bad loss)

St. Mary’s (1-4 T50, 3-6 T100, 99 SOS, 2 bad losses)

Missouri State (0-1 T50, 3-6 T100, 125 SOS, 2 bad
losses)

Georgia (3-9 T50, 5-11 T100, 40 SOS, 0 bad losses)

Alabama (4-3 T50, 5-6 T100, 127 SOS, 4 bad losses)

USC (5-5 T50, 8-8 T100, 39 SOS, 6 bad losses)

Richmond (1-3 T50, 4-6 T100, 141 SOS, 1 bad loss)\

New Mexico (4-6 T50, 5-8 T100, 77 SOS, 4 bad losses)
Mar 12, 2011 11:06am
Mulva's avatar

Mulva

Senior Member

13,650 posts
Mar 12, 2011 2:12 PM
Bracketography:
Last 4 in - USC, Va Tech, BC, Penn State
First 4 out - Georgia, Clemson, ST. Mary's, UAB

B101:
Last 4 in - Colorado, St. Mary's, Georgia, Clemson
First 4 out - Penn State, UAB, USC, BC

ESPN:
Last 4 in - Va Tech, Colorado, USC, Penn State
First 4 out - Alabama, BC, Georgia, Memphis

Memphis is irrelevant because they won CUSA.

Judging by that, I would say the teams in contention for the last 6 spots from most to least safe would be...

1. Colorado (all have them in)
2. Va Tech (all have them in)

3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. St. Mary's (2 of 3 have all of these teams in with 1 not even having them in the last 4 in)

6. Penn State
7. USC (2 of 3 have them in)

8. Georgia
9. BC (2 of 3 have them out)

Of course, the teams that are still playing (Clemson, Penn State, Va Tech), can still make statements and continue to shake this up. Clemson would obviously be a stone cold lock if they hold on to beat UNC.

Looks like Richmond is probably safely in, New Mexico and Missouri State aren't even in consideration, and UAB is a deep, deep long shot.
Mar 12, 2011 2:12pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Mar 12, 2011 2:36 PM
I already had Colorado and Clemson in my lock list. My last 5 in at this point would be Penn State, Georgia, Virginia Tech, Richmond, and Alabama. First four out would be UAB, Boston College, St. Mary's, and New Mexico.
Mar 12, 2011 2:36pm
Azubuike24's avatar

Azubuike24

Senior Member

15,933 posts
Mar 12, 2011 5:26 PM
Richmond about to beat Temple. Win or lose tomorrow, that would take them off the bubble. Folks would have to root against Dayton as a win by them would mean 4 bids for the A-10...
Mar 12, 2011 5:26pm
Cleveland Buck's avatar

Cleveland Buck

Troll Hunter

5,126 posts
Mar 12, 2011 6:12 PM
Richmond is in now and I don't see how they can keep Penn State out. I'll wait to see what the consensus is before I move those two to the lock list though.
Mar 12, 2011 6:12pm
september63's avatar

september63

Senior Member

5,789 posts
Mar 12, 2011 6:19 PM
Id lock Penn St in now. Richmond locked themselves in already. What do you mean wait to move them to your lock list?

NM, you meant someone else.
Mar 12, 2011 6:19pm
Azubuike24's avatar

Azubuike24

Senior Member

15,933 posts
Mar 12, 2011 9:52 PM
In The Field (65)

Florida
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke
Clemson
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Washington
Arizona
UCLA
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Michigan State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Syracuse
Connecticut
Georgetown
Villanova
Louisville
Notre Dame
Cincinnati
West Virginia
St. John's
Marquette
Kansas
Texas
Texas A&M
Kansas State
Missouri
Colorado
Indiana State
San Diego State
Brigham Young
UNLV
Utah State***
Richmond
Xavier
Temple
Memphis
Butler
Old Dominion
George Mason
Gonzaga
Akron
UC Santa Barbara
Bucknell
Princeton
Wofford
Boston
Arkansas Little Rock
Oakland
St. Peter's
Northern Colorado
Texas San Antonio
Morehead State
Belmont
Long Island
UNC Ashville
Hampton
Alabama State

Remaining 2 Spots

Alabama
Georgia
Boston College
USC
Missouri State
UTEP
UAB
St. Mary's
Harvard

What If's

Boise State beats Utah State tonight, WAC gets 2 bids
Dayton beats Richmond tomorrow, A-10 gets 4 bids

It's slim chances for the remaining bubble teams.
Mar 12, 2011 9:52pm
I

ironman02

Senior Member

4,989 posts
Mar 12, 2011 11:29 PM
Boise was hanging around against Utah State at the half, but the Aggies have started to pull away a little. Definitely a good thing for the bubble teams.
Mar 12, 2011 11:29pm
I

ironman02

Senior Member

4,989 posts
Mar 12, 2011 11:41 PM
And now Boise is making things interesting again. I knew as soon as I typed that, they would start a comeback.
Mar 12, 2011 11:41pm
Tiger2003's avatar

Tiger2003

Kill or be Killed

15,421 posts
Mar 13, 2011 12:05 AM
Joe still has Bama and Georgia on the outside looking in.

Boise down 3 with 3 minutes left.
Mar 13, 2011 12:05am
I

ironman02

Senior Member

4,989 posts
Mar 13, 2011 12:15 AM
It looks like Utah State will hold on and save a spot for one of the teams currently sitting on the bubble.
Mar 13, 2011 12:15am
Tiger2003's avatar

Tiger2003

Kill or be Killed

15,421 posts
Mar 13, 2011 12:23 AM
ironman02;709671 wrote:North Dakota beat South Dakota, 77-76 in 2 OTs to punch its ticket to the dance.

I wish. The GWC does not get an automatic but what a crazy ending. The Sioux were down 76-72 with 14 seconds left and pulled out the win 77-76.

Go Sioux!
Mar 13, 2011 12:23am
I

ironman02

Senior Member

4,989 posts
Mar 13, 2011 12:25 AM
You must have quoted me right as I edited. haha
Mar 13, 2011 12:25am
Tiger2003's avatar

Tiger2003

Kill or be Killed

15,421 posts
Mar 13, 2011 12:31 AM
ironman02;709680 wrote:You must have quoted me right as I edited. haha

But hey we do have the Nations #1 College Hockey team in the country!!!
Mar 13, 2011 12:31am